@mjwl2006 wrote:
Paris firm that foresaw 2008 crisis right again with loonie
Valérie Gastaldy says she can predict the Canadian dollar’s movements years in advance using centuries-old models.
Her six-person team, the entirety of Paris-based research firm Day By Day SAS, was the best forecaster for the currency in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg rankings.
Being right for a 3 month period, and noting the last big success they had was in 2008 does not impress me as being much above being lucky at guessing. But then we are talking economic predicting, which is a guess rather than a science.
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"Ms. Gastaldy predicts the Canadian dollar will weaken to 75.76 cents (U.S.) by the end of September, before strengthening into the first half of next year, reaching 83.33 cents."
"Longer-term, Ms. Gastaldy said the loonie is poised to ... weaken to 71.43 cents in 2018 and 66.76 cents in 2019."
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In other news: military coup against Turkey's future-Dictator President Erdogan appears to have failed (July 15 to 16).
Events like this also have impacts on where a currency goes, and no economic model is good at handling this type of surprise.
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