SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

Sales have been down for 6 months. The number of Buyers and Dollar average has been decreasing. Defect count has gone UP due to fewer Buyers over the months. Hmmm. Better pictures, accurate description, currency, percentage discount, combined ship discount. Can not Control Sales must Manage Expenses. Suggestions Welcome....

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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

Well, I did a search on "eBay" on the US S.E.C. site mentioned, and it appears the report does exist, but apparently on an S.E.C. open site named "Edgar".  I suppose anybody who has the time can search that site and find the eBay statement.  (I'm too busy doing other things today to sift through the endless list of submissions, articles, etc. on that site, so I think I'll just take the poster who quoted the statement on eCommerce Bytes at his/her word). 

 

"Recommended by SEC Site Search
Ebay (EBAY) Filings on EDGARwww.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=EBAY&Find=Search&owner=ex...View documents filed by Ebay (EBAY) on EDGAR, which provides free public access to corporate information, including registration statements, prospectuses and periodic reports."
 
 
Message 41 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

The link that you gave in post 40 works if you copy and paste it.

Message 42 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.


@paisley_daze wrote:

Wow.  Thanks for drawing attention to that.  It explains a great deal very clearly.  I was beginning to get downright paranoid about recent sagging sales (none since July 21st).  I sell under this ID and another.  Both are fading into the sunset.  I was, like others, beginning to think that somehow my items were being suppressed unfairly in the search engine for whatever reason.  Now, I know more about what is happening across the marketplace and I can begin to form decisions going forward.  Nothing lasts forever.  Everything changes;  and in the world of online sales, change comes swiftly and requires a constant reinvention of your business plan. 

 

Good luck to everyone here.  I still love eBay but it's not productive to sit and wish for the good old days.  Back to the drawing board.Smiley Happy


You are not alone in feeling that way.  Now we can go forward knowing that falling sales is NOT our fault, the value of our goods have not dropped drastically and make new business decisions without that nagging feeling that we have failed somehow.

Message 43 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

"How can anyone, after reading the entire statement you quoted above, still believe that eBay is not the problem?  "

 

One more time, as explained above, very clearly eBay is NOT the problem in the context of this thread.

 

Of course eBay has challenges and the new management at eBay listed many of those challenges in the recent release of quarterly financial results (full details available from the eBay.com website).

 

Reality is that total volume of sales by all sellers is constant despite all those challenges - so if your volume is dropping substantially, the problem is not eBay.

Message 44 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.


@pierrelebel wrote:

"How can anyone, after reading the entire statement you quoted above, still believe that eBay is not the problem?  "

 

One more time, as explained above, very clearly eBay is NOT the problem in the context of this thread.

 

Of course eBay has challenges and the new management at eBay listed many of those challenges in the recent release of quarterly financial results (full details available from the eBay.com website).

 

Reality is that total volume of sales by all sellers is constant despite all those challenges - so if your volume is dropping substantially, the problem is not eBay.


Those challenges were brought about by eBay's treatment of its paying customers, also known as "sellers" or "noise" by management.

Instead of taking "thinking days" Johnny Ho should have used the time listed to the "noise".  

Message 46 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

When one takes the time to read the information, one find the following (eBay only not including PayPal):

 

Year over year : Growth in Sold Items 9.5%

 

Year over Year : US Gross Merchandise Volume Growth 2%

 

Year over Year International Gross Merchandise Volume Growth 8% in local currency (-5% when converted into US$)

 

Volume purchased by US buyers grew 6%

 

Value of fixed price grew 11% while auctions declined 14%

Message 47 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

Correction:  Not "listed" but "listened"

Message 48 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

"Those challenges were brought about by eBay's treatment of its paying customers, also known as "sellers" or "noise" by management. Instead of taking "thinking days" Johnny Ho should have used the time listed to the "noise".  "

 

Yes sellers can find many ways to blame eBay when their business is not doing well.  Why not?

 

The simple reality - and I frankly find it difficult to understand why so many people refuse to accept it - is that the totality of all sellers manage to maintain or increase their sales.  Of course it could be better.  It can always be better.  But the venue is there to use.

Message 49 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

In response in particular to Pierre's comments above with the link to eBay's own informational pages, I would say that a company can paint any rosy picture it cares to on its own website and to its shareholders.  Such information is unfiltered by any scrutiny.  The company neither has to disclose nor discuss the factors which create problems or uncertainty, either present or future, including mistakes it may have made.  

 

I've skimmed through the S.E.C. document submitted by eBay.  I know nothing about the Securities Commission in the U.S., but I do know something about Canadian securities commissions and what they expect to see.  This document strikes me much like the prospectuses that B.C. corporations used to have to submit to the Superintendent of Brokers (they may still have to do so, but I haven't worked in the area for many years).  The U.S.S.E.C. document submitted by eBay appears to be some sort of regularly required submission for public companies, outlining the corporate history and setting out risk factors for potential investors to see.  I'm sure some of our U.S. seller counterparts would be familiar with this type of document. 

 

In any case, what eBay says "in-house", and what eBay must disclose to a public authority are two different sides of the coin.  Here we see much of the reality of what has got eBay into trouble, and -- more importantly -- what they haven't  specifically done about it.  They've clearly outlined all the risk factors and issues that are likely to affect their ability to prosper, but there is no mention of any mitigating steps that have been (or will be) taken.  The document, as a whole, reads like a manifesto for giving up managing.  

 

As I said in a previous post here, in my view eBay has, either unwittingly or through bungling (which in the corporate world amounts to the same thing), handed much of their original market advantages to other entities.  As someone pointed out, eBay was the online marketplace, having got their foot in the door from the very beginning.  

 

What other entities haven't grabbed away from eBay (in other words, what is now left) has not been well managed, in my opinion.  Part of the reason, again in my view, is that eBay has made many bad decisions or completely failed to apply creative problem-solving to areas where other sites have succeeded.  I won't repeat my litany of bad decision-making that I posted earlier, but suffice it to say I still maintain eBay has shot itself in the foot, over and over.  The bleating by David Wenig about concern over eBay's "traditional" sellers is just too little, too late. 

 

Being on eBay all these years frankly has been like watching a gifted kid with a load of advantages slipping further and further from their fabulous potential.  

 

It doesn't make me happy to say these things, but as 'gifts-of-elegance' said above, reading this S.E.C. submission by eBay at least makes me feel vindicated that lack of increased success on eBay is not the result of any deficit on my part. 

 

BTW, here's the direct link to the eBay S.E.C. submission, which I think should work: 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000106508815000054/ebay201410-k.htm

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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.


rose-dee wrote: 

Did eBay have nothing whatever to do with: 

 

  • Allowing (through either poor planning or not spending enough on security), a serious cyber attack, and then dragging its feet in dealing with the fallout?
  • A defect system that downgrades smaller sellers faster than larger ones?
  • A checkout system that doesn't work seamlessly across its sites?
  • Searches that don't function well and easily?
  • Advertising that promotes a myriad of outside products and sites (please don't tell me you haven't seen those Sears, etc. ads on eBay)? 
  • A feedback system that a majority of buyers don't use anymore and that is useless to sellers except as a means of punishment by eBay?
  • Never-ending site issues, glitches, slowdowns, problems and re-arranging?
  • Discouraging, through policy, the development of the seller/buyer relationship (and contact), and hence buyer loyalty (the removal of the "Me" page was an example, and the last step in this process)
  • Policy-making that creates such a tangle of rules on this site that they confuse and confound sellers and buyers alike?
  • Micro-managing sellers' affairs and interfering with the online market here in ways that may help some but disadvantage others 
  • Happily opening the floodgates to vastly big sellers of gazillions of undifferentiated, mass-produced, cheap junk that clogs up searches and frustrates and wears out buyers?  Re-read the comments of the buyer ('bozonet') earlier on this thread in this regard -- I expect this is a very common experience for buyers.  I know it is when I buy here. 

 

Yes, we have to adapt to be able to continue successfully on eBay, but I don't like to feel that I'm struggling uphill against a lot of odds over which eBay does have control. 

 

_________________________________________

 

I'm a little late to this thread.  I just wanted to say that you summed this up so well, rose-dee.

 

Throughout my long career with the Federal Government, change was a constant.  How often did I hear that we had to adapt and "work smarter, not harder" whenever budget cuts affected our programs, whenever our front-line staff was reduced, and when, finally, we could no longer even fulfill our mandate and regulatory responsibilities due to a lack of resources.

 

Well, with respect to eBay, my smartness has reached its saturation point.  While one of my selling accounts has not fared as poorly as this one (the one I post with), I no longer feel like I'm only working part-time.  I spend far more hours on eBay than I did over past years.  I've kept my prices low, accepting only a marginal profit, in order to move merchandise.  There is a shelf-life on cosmetics and skin care, so I can't wait 12 to 16 months to sell these items.  (I know Mr. Elmwood has stated in the past that he sells high and sells more -- that doesn't work for me).  As our dollar drops, so do my prices, in order to encourage Canadian buyers.  I incorporate shipping  into my selling price whenever feasible.

 

And while devoting all these hours to eBay, each time I return to My eBay Summary Page, I see Sold (last 60 Days) $250 to $300, whereas this figure had been consistently $1800 to $2000.  I refuse to take 100% of the blame for this reduction and I refuse to believe that I am not adapting well.  The factors outlined in rose-dee's post above have contributed to this decline.

 

Pierre, I know that you are not a mean-spirited person, but you remind me of many of my friends who are much, much better off than me financially who are so accustomed to their success, that they think anyone who is not doing as well as them must have caused their own misfortune.

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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

Very well expressed, 'jt'.  I think you've described what very many sellers must be feeling at the moment.

 

EBay used to be a facilitating venue; now it's become essentially a system of control.  

 

The advantages it once offered have largely morphed into a rather grotesque edifice of rules, policies and punishment that -- ironically -- still doesn't work smoothly.  

 

The hurdles, risks, pitfalls, issues and difficulties that face the average "boutique" seller on eBay are becoming less and less easily offset by the advantages to be gained by selling here.  That's basically what it boils down to for me at the moment.  

 

As far as I'm concerned, eBay is "on probation" until my store renewal comes up in 2016.  I can only hope that the vague reports about steps to be taken to win back smaller sellers do come to pass this fall.  I'm a persistent and optimistic type, and figure that if I can just hang on a few more months, things might change.  Still, even a Pollyanna has her breaking point. 

Message 52 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

"Pierre, I know that you are not a mean-spirited person"

 

Thank you.  Smiley Happy

 

"...I refuse to take 100% of the blame for this reduction ..."

 

And I totally agree with you.  There are many factors why many Canadian sellers experience a slow down. I have tried to outline a few earlier on this thread.  I am sure there are many more.

 

The point I have tried to make is relatively simple:  somehow when you combine all sales by all sellers on eBay there is no slowdown. 

 

If the problems explaining the slowdown were all due to bad bad bad eBay, then the overall sales by all sellers would be down.  That is not the case.  Yes there are challenges, yes there is competition, yes e-commerce is evolving, yes Canadians are disadvantaged in many respects, yes Canada Post stinks, etc... etc...

 

Folks have to start looking at the bright side... at other Canadian sellers on eBay doing just fine (and no they do not all sell stamps... a dying industry). Smiley Happy 

 

By the way, my sales are down about 85% from three years ago.  Yet you do not see me complaining and blaming eBay.  There are other factors, totally unrelated to eBay.

Message 53 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

pierre lebel wrote: 

 

The point I have tried to make is relatively simple:  somehow when you combine all sales by all sellers on eBay there is no slowdown. 

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

I'm sorry, but there are many explanations for why eBay can still be posting increased sales while many sellers are hurting.  

 

One explanation I can think of is that eBay has invited legions of big retail sellers onto its site, and then heavily promoted and marketed their consumer goods to its buyers, ergo, the value of those sellers' transactions is skewing the numbers, basically compensating for losses by sellers in other areas and of other types.   It is only revealing a part of the picture, the part that eBay wants its shareholders to believe. 

 

If eBay were to publish the sales figures broken down by category or type, I think that might be far more illuminating in a discussion of this kind.  

 

 

 

 

Message 54 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

One also has to consider the definition of "old listings'

 

If a listing has been on eBay over 16 or is it 18 months... it is considered "old"  and does not get the same exposure as a newly listed item.

 

Did eBay not state that for listings showing beyond 18 months on the UK site....  listing fees double.

 

My approach has been to end and relist after about 12 months.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Many new sellers come to eBay and sell in a very narrow category....  They do well and then sales drop to near nothing...

 

They have filled a niche  and now must wait for new buyers  that really want their item on eBay.

 

I know of a seller  that bought 20 pieces of native art..... 10 sold very quickly... while now  the rest sit on eBay waiting for that one new seller...

 

At first the demand was high because  this was something new for many buyers.... now potential buyers are few.

 

This seller sells more than artwork....  and does very well... adding new inventory on a regular basis.

 

 

Many sellers choose to sit with their original inventory.... Sales fall of  or plateau.

 

One has to keep adding new inventory....  removing old ... dead .....inventory  and constantly renewing the items for sale....

 

 

The search  engine  has to be invigorated with one's listings constantly.

 

One thing I use to do is revise listings on a regular basis.....Pretend to revise my postal code... remove the old  and add the new... same postal code ... but now revised.. 

 

Did this work?... perhaps...

 

I have also taken to ending a listing and relisting after about 12 months...  I may go to a relist at less than 12 months...

 

Revising my US dollars to Canadian dollars price relationship earlier this year did stimulate sales to US buyers.

 

Adding new inventory  in new categories has resulted in good sales....  new major topics a major shift to a good category of book...

 

I also got the impression that 30 listings and more in a new category were needed to stimulate sales in that new category...

 

 

New inventory sells more quickly than "old" inventory

 

---------------------------------

 

Many sellers ... more specifically the new sellers to eBay....come here... list it  and let it sit..... selling in a narrow niche

 

Sales "happen"  and then die...  Too much old inventory...  no new buyers interested in their niche of item..

 

 

One has to work the inventory....  add the new... take out the old... and stimulate the Search Engine.

 

There are some sellers.... I know one specifically....  that has 20,000 potential listings....  only lists 10,000 for 30 days at a time....

 

Listings are always new...  

 

and he is a computer specialist... There are special programs that allow the listing of thousands of listings at a time....

 

 

Many times... sellers are their own worst enemy with a lack of sales...

 

 

Message 55 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

All of the arguments for personal seller responsibility for slumping sales, and the numbers quoted by Pierre above (in Post #47) do not reflect the fact that eBay's focus has shifted to its largest retailers and other segments of its business.  The report of the independent accounting firm (starting on pg. F1) and the tables following it, including the Consolidated Balance Sheet, are particularly interesting. 

 

I would encourage anyone who has an interest in delving into the reality of eBay's financial position and business operations to read through the report and the Consolidated Financial Statements provided in the U.S. Securities Commission submission by eBay (see link in my Post #50).  There are some very interesting details, a few of which I've highlighted here for anybody who doesn't have the time or inclination to read through the whole document.   

 

Like many U.S. companies with international operations, eBay has a tremendous load of outstanding unpaid taxes that would become due should it need to repatriate funds currently held offshore.  This amount is reported on its Summary of Operating expenses statement (pg. 55-56) as being $3,485 (million), representing a whopping 19% of revenues in 2014.  In 2012 and 2013, that figure was a modest 3% and 4% respectively.  

 

EBay's explanation of the tax deferral figures: 

 

"Our effective tax rate was 99% in 2014 compared to 18% in 2013. The increase in our effective tax rate during 2014 compared to 2013 was due primarily to the recognition during the year of deferred tax liabilities of approximately $3.0 billion of U.S. income and applicable foreign withholding taxes on $9.0 billion of undistributed foreign earnings of certain of our foreign subsidiaries for 2013 and prior years [...]."

 

In other words, eBay anticipated it would need a large chunk of that offshore money soon and would ultimately be obligated to pay U.S. taxes on it. 

 

The table on pg. 63, of eBay's fixed contractual obligations and payments, is interesting.  The figure for 2015 is $1,026 (million), not much higher in 2017, lower in 2016 and 2018, but an amount of $4,708 (million) is shown for 2019.  What does eBay expect to have to pay that is so significant in 2019?  

 

On the Consolidated Statement of Income (page 47), net income is reported in 2013 as $2,856 (million) and as $46 million in 2014.  Although eBay reported a sales increase in 2014, it was nowhere near the growth of its Payments segment (which is reported to have grown by 19%), and was helped by foreign currency values, although eBay doesn't break that figure down: 

 

Our Marketplaces segment total net revenues increased $533 million, or 6%, in 2014 compared to 2013. The increase in total net revenues was driven primarily by an increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) (as defined below) of 9%, which was due to continued growth internationally and in the U.S. and a favorable impact from foreign currency movements relative to the U.S. dollar. We believe that during 2014, GMV was negatively impacted by declines in volume caused by lower organic traffic and our second quarter cyberattack described below.

 

 

The "Net Revenues by Type" table (pg. 50) is an interesting read.  EBay defines GMV as set out below, which means that transactions which were not consummated are also included in the 9% figure: 

 

"We define GMV as the total value of all successfully closed transactions between users on Marketplaces platforms (excluding eBay's classifieds websites, brands4friends and Shopping.com) during the applicable period regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transaction."

 

The chart on page 52 shows eBay's supplemental operating data.  Interestingly, it's "take rate" on the "Enterprise" segment (commercial retail marketing) is 20.94%, but only 8.43% on its "Marketplaces"  (eBay sites, etc.) segment.  

 

And for anyone who may still believe eBay's online marketplace didn't suffer as a result of the 2014 cyber attack: 

 

"The disruption arising from this cyberattack adversely affected our 2014 Marketplaces segment results; however, it is not possible to precisely measure the amount of lost revenue directly attributable to the cyberattack. We are unable to predict the full impact of the cyberattack on Marketplaces users' behavior in the future, including whether a change in our customers' trust could negatively impact our Marketplaces segment’s results of operations on an ongoing basis or require us to increase promotional efforts to regain such trust."

 

An interesting detail with regard to the Paypal separation: 

 

"During 2014, we incurred approximately $35 million related to separation costs. We expect to continue to incur additional separation costs in 2015 until we complete the separation of our PayPal business. We currently estimate that such additional separation costs will exceed $250 million, although that estimate is subject to a number of assumptions and uncertainties."

 

It's no wonder eBay has been focused so heavily on making money from its biggest retailers and/or spinoff businesses: 

 

"eBay Enterprise Marketing Solutions includes a suite of demand generation capabilities including: affiliate marketing; attribution; database and CRM; email & mobile marketing; online advertising display targeting. In 2015, eBay Enterprise will launch its Commerce Marketing Platform, a suite of cloud-based marketing solutions that enables marketers to plan and execute a consumer's entire journey while determining the most relevant offers and channel selections. Designed and built from the ground up in partnership with FICO, a leading predictive analytics and decision management software company, the platform combines commerce insights powered by data and best-in-class demand generation technologies of eBay Enterprise in combination with FICO’s powerful analytics applications to optimize the relevance and value of each individual customer’s purchasing journey."

 

and (my bold emphasis added): 

 

"Our Enterprise business competes primarily on the basis of the following:
    
  
offering a modular, integrated portfolio of commerce technology solutions and services that are delivered on an individual basis or as bundled solutions;
  
providing a licensed open core platform, offering an enterprise-class native feature set and flexibility through direct source code access and APIs that supports on-premise, hosted managed (via partners) and on-demand cloud deployments (via partners);
  
promoting the client’s brand and business, rather than our own;
  
providing enterprise-level scale and operating leverage;
  
establishing a commitment to enhance our solutions and services and invest in innovation;
  
aligning our financial interests with those of our clients;
  
offering a suite of commerce marketing solutions that are integrated with our marketing solutions platform, which we believe provides a more strategic, cohesive and optimized approach to demand generation; and
  
providing services that utilize proprietary technology to promote stronger customer engagement designed to increase clients’ return on investment.

 

 

In other words, if you're bigger and can pay more, you can access a higher level of exposure and success by purchasing eBay's own expertise. 

Message 56 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

In other words, if you're bigger and can pay more, you can access a higher level of exposure and success by purchasing eBay's own expertise. 

 

Where does it suggest that?

 
Message 57 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

You realize ebay gave up on ebay enterprise (nothing to do with the ebay marketplace anyway other then they got a few of its clients to lsit here) and just sold it at a large loss from what they paid for it?.  Ebay enterprise was managing websites, fullfillment, software for large retailers own sites.  Now ebay has nothing to do with it

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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.

There is no  such thing as "old inventory".  To a new purchaser, everything  is "NEW".

 

I sell  internationally so the whole world is my "shopping mall".  With billions of people in the world, I find it unbelievable that there are  days when not even one person out of these billions is interested in buying even one of my items.

 

The only country I don't ship to is  "Kuwait", yet the largest portion of my buyers are from Kuwait followed by China, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation.

 

I am a Canadian seller, but my Canadian purchasers are 1 or 2 a month  and many times not even one.

 

I have over 1300 listings, many in quantities and still my sales are  around 30-40 items a month.

 

I am constantly working on my listings.  I lower prices, adjust shipping costs, change pictures, update titles and descriptions, etc.

All my listings are ended and relisted every three months.  I even used to schedule  my listings every 15 minutes from 8 A.M. to Midnight.

 

Every day I spend a certain amount of time to check what are selling in my categories, new listings and what my  fellow competitors are doing, 

 

I re-invest 40% of my gross sales in new inventory so I can keep  adding  new items to my listings.

 

I tried low auctions starting at a low price.  I run sales periodically with 10% off.  I tried 15% off for a couple days and did not get a single sale.  I have also done "Best Offer" on all my items.  Almost all my sales are run for minimum a week.

 

I sell Designer Jewelry, China, Crystal and Collectibles in ever popular brand names such as Christian Dior, Swarovski, Burberrys of London, Minton, and more.

 

A large portion of my items are new from old stock.  Everything is in mint condition and cleaned.  I use new packaging material and pack well so there is  never a damage.  My home is smoke and pet free.

 

I offered unconditional guarantee on all my items until a few months ago.  I stopped because of the "defect" rating, and return shipping costs.  I still work with my purchasers when there is a problem but only if there is a real problem.

 

I have one case on my record that closed without seller resolution.  The purchaser in question bought a pair of earrings from me and claimed "not received".  I refunded immediately  and placed him on my "banned" list.  He came back with another user name and bought 2-3 other items.  I  did not realize it was  the same person  until later.  He put in a claim for "item not as described" for both items.  On one, he placed a bogus tracking number.  Neither items were shipped back but the one with the bogus tracking number was refunded.

I called eBay  several times, filed several complaints against him but the situation was never corrected.  He also left a couple of negative feedbacsk.  (undertaker).  I asked Customer support to correct my account but was refused with "we can't".

 

I am not trying to brag or pat myself on the back or even to convince you on "what a great job I am doing". I don't need that.

But I refuse to accept the fact that falling sales are in any way "my fault".

 

It is  not my intention to offend anyone here, but I JUST HAD TO VENT!

 

 

 

 

 

Message 59 of 238
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SALES are Down. Cause: Recession? Suggestions welcome.


@pjcdn2005 wrote:

In other words, if you're bigger and can pay more, you can access a higher level of exposure and success by purchasing eBay's own expertise. 

 

Where does it suggest that?

 

providing services that utilize proprietary technology to promote stronger customer engagement designed to increase clients’ return on investment.

 

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