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Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East

Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East

(5 Replies / 106 Views)
Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 18, 2012 09:39 AM

Excerpts from a recent article published in Haaretz

 

"What led to Mubarak's resignation in Egypt was not that the U.S. government had somehow abandoned him, but rather that the military, feeling the heat of mass protests, carried out a de facto coup. The same is true of Ben Ali in Tunisia, although there the military has now chosen to withdraw from politics.

 

In any case, a widespread problem with analysis of current developments in the Arab world is a tendency to impose false dichotomies. For instance, on the subject of Egypt's future, too much ink has been wasted on asking whether that country will emerge as a full-blown Islamist state or a healthy democracy. In fact, it is time to appreciate that a new norm will be dominating the region: chaos.

 

Egyptians will continue to be quick to anger, having realized that the overthrow of Mubarak has led to no real improvement in quality of life, triggering a vicious cycle of further unrest. Likewise, few have noticed that Syria looks set to face a Malthusian-style collapse in the event of the fall of Bashar Assad's regime. The Sunni heartland is likely to succumb to the demographic and environmental pressures that helped trigger the uprising in the first place."

 

By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/chaos-is-the-new-status-quo-in-the-middle-east-1.413392


Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago. "Warren Buffett"

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by valve37 (261 ) View Listings
(1 of 5)
Re: Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 18, 2012 09:57 AM

The chaos is likely to really light up if Iran carries out her threat and blocks the Strait of Hormuz.

A war analyst on CNN a few days ago predicted the US will move a third carrier group into the region by summer as nuclear talks scheduled to begin with Iran will just be delay tactics as usual.

The window he said for shutting their nuclear ambitions down is closing fast and military action by summer may be the only option left to bring their program to a halt.    


Money can't buy back your youth when you're old Or the loss of a loved one or a love that's grown cold Make one thing for certain when it comes your time You leave this old world with a satisfied mind

(2 of 5)
Re: Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 18, 2012 10:01 AM

After surviving sectarian mob, Egyptian Christians expelled from village

 

 

The man surrendered to police, and no images were found. But on Jan. 27 a large crowd gathered in front of his father’s home. Armed with rocks, Molotov cocktails, and guns, they stomped on wooden crosses and shouted about defending the honor of Islam, says Rashad, who lives just across the alley.

 

Christian businessman Abskharon Suleiman in the home of a Muslim family, where he is staying after being evicted from his village.

  

They soon began attacking Christian homes and shops in Sharbat. At least three Christian homes were completely destroyed after crowds lit them on fire, and at least 10 shops owned by Christians were looted, including Rashad’s tailoring shop. Some were burned.

Amid the attacks, the son of local Christian businessman Abskharon Suleiman fired a gun, in what Mr. Suleiman says was an attempt to scare off the attackers who looted and burned his shops and his family’s homes. No one was shot. According to EIPR’s report, security forces only intervened hours later, though village leaders had called them when the violence began.

Rashad says there are many honorable Muslims in the village and some intervened to save Christian families like his. But he blamed the violence on radicals. “This was just an excuse for them to generalize everything against Christians and say we want to get them out of the village,” he says. “Those radical Muslims have been meaning to do something like that. They were looking for a reason to attack the Christians.”

How the Christians' punishment was determined

In the wake of the violence, several reconciliation councils convened, attended by elected representatives from the Nour party. Lawmakers from Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) also attended some councils. Some of the councils were overseen by police and governorate officials.

They first agreed to expel the man who supposedly had the affair, along with his father, his brother, and their families from the village. But, angered by the Suleiman family’s use of a gun, another mob burned another home. A subsequent reconciliation meeting decided that Suleiman, his four sons, and their families would also leave. The committee, led by a local salafi sheikh, would sell their belongings for them and pass the proceeds to the Suleimans.

EIPR says those meetings were illegal, because the law demands a criminal investigation into arson. Those who sponsored the agreement, says EIPR, “flagrantly violated the law.” A document that details the terms of Suleiman’s departure says that the sheikh will be responsible for finding those who attacked Christian homes.

Parliament begins investigating

Two and a half weeks after the incident, on Feb. 13, the speaker of Egypt’s parliament tasked the human rights committee with investigating it. But secular lawmaker Emad Gad said he had asked the speaker, FJP’s Saad El Katatni, to take action nearly a week before and was ignored until the issue was picked up by local media.

In a recent TV interview, a Nour party spokesman said that it contradicts Islamic law to evict Christians from the village, but said salafis intervened to keep bloodshed from happening in the village.

Ahmed Gad, an FJP member of parliament from Alexandria who visited Sharbat after the violence, says the party supports applying the law in such situations. But he also says it is normal, in rural areas, for families to resolve disputes through reconciliation meetings. “Most of them are Bedouins, and this is how Bedouins solve things,” he says.

Ahmed Gad says no families were forced to leave the village except those allegedly involved in the inter-religious affair, and that the incidents in Sharbat were not sectarian. He accuses Suleiman of igniting violence, and said he left the village voluntarily. “The one who caused the problem was Abu Suleiman,” as he is known in the village. “Abu Suleiman put himself in this situation, and he left because he’s the reason that things have gotten worse after he and his sons shot at people with their machine guns,” he says. “If Abu Suleiman wants to come back to the village, he can come back today.”

Suleiman: I didn't have a choice

Suleiman, who looks the part of a village patriarch, with a carefully grown mustache and traditional dress, says he didn’t really have a choice. He also looks weary as he tells his story in the traditional reception room of the Muslim family outside Sharbat who took in him and his family. He said the council told him that if he and his family didn’t leave the village, the violence would continue. “I agreed to leave to prevent violence,” he says.

An FJP statement Feb. 12 said “there is calm and stability in the village now, and Copts have no problems.” But Rashad says otherwise.

Though he and his sons have since returned to his home, he sent his wife and daughters to stay with family in southern Egypt, afraid that they would be abducted after the mobs threatened Christian women. A man recently pulled a knife on one of his young sons, gloating that “we trapped you like mice.” When the family escaped the mob, his house was robbed, including the items meant to furnish the new house of his daughter, whose wedding is in April.

“We had nothing to do with this,” he says. “It’s a story that involves two people. Why are we involved?”

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0216/After-surviving-sectarian-mob-Egyptian-Christians-expelled-from-village/(page)/2

(3 of 5)
Re: Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 22, 2012 11:50 AM

I would suggest that the new model in statehood is Somalia.

 

The bottom-up rebuilding of a society is the new norm.  Local communities eventually band together, pool their resources and hire security to protect themselves.  Then they start making alliances with neighbours for their mutual protection.

 

The key here is that these communities have lost faith in the central government, often seeing it as being unduly influenced from outside the former state, or as having been corrupt and thus not to be trusted.

 

Similar to what has happened in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

 

Not necesarily a bad thing as the motives behind these small enclaves (clanistans is one phrase being thrown around) is a combination of security and economic well-being.

 

Chaos rarely holds in these places for any length of time: the merchants and business people eventually insist upon some form of law and order, and increasingly, it's been a bottom up form of state re-creation that's taken hold.

(4 of 5)
Re: Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 22, 2012 08:31 PM

I would suggest that the new model in statehood is Somalia.

 

I would suggest that Somalia is a basketcase.


Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago. "Warren Buffett"

(5 of 5)
Re: Chaos - the new status quo in the Middle East
Feb 22, 2012 09:47 PM

I would suggest that the new model in statehood is Somalia.

 

I would suggest that Somalia is a basketcase.

 

Add Syria to that one.


Money can't buy back your youth when you're old Or the loss of a loved one or a love that's grown cold Make one thing for certain when it comes your time You leave this old world with a satisfied mind

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