RICARMICs Self insurance cookie jar statistics to end of 2023 Record breaker!
Summary: ricarmic, a stamp seller, shared a detailed analysis of their postage stamp sales on eBay over several years, focusing on shipment loss rates and incidents of fraud. They discussed different types of insurance they use and how their strategies have evolved, such as blocking certain countries and starting to offer tracking for more packages. reallynicestamps and rocketscollectibles joined the conversation, with rocketscollectibles noting that while the stamp category seems safer from scams, tracking is still essential for valuable shipments. sparx_63 shared their experience with a 'cookie jar insurance' method for small value items, highlighting its success in reducing risk. ilikehockeyjerseys suggested that the concern over item-not-received (INR) cases might be exaggerated, especially for sellers with higher sales volumes, explaining how volume helps to mitigate the occasional loss or scam risk.
Overall Notes:
-I live in the stamp collectors world, so these results are all from postage stamp selling categories
-prior to 2018 I sold only on .COM. Since then new stuff is about equally divided between .COM and .CA depending on intended audience and shipping costs (low value stuff with high small packet shipping cost to USA are listed on .CA with USA shipping costs, larger versions of the same lots are on the .COM to try to get them to buy the larger more cost effective to ship to them lots)
-starting in 2022 I began blocking countries, I block 106 countries now. I do not have any other blocks, but I do maintain a blocked buyer list.
-this review includes items lost to "crime" as well. "Crime" is defined here as situations where I think or know people purposefully buy with bad intentions, or claiming false lost in transit.
-because of the blocked countries, I sell less stuff internationally now, just under 20% of my packages go outside North America
-the numbers below are specific to eBay sales. I experience losses both real and "crime" related via the other online venues I use so package loss rate is not only an ebay buyer issue.
It is also worth noting that for 2023 I continued to have 3 types of insurance:
- Self insurance for the small stuff
- Canada Post for the first $100 only when items are sent expedited, expresspost, or trackable
- 3rd party insurer (Hugh Wood) for stuff over $200
(Note that I did not utilize 2 or 3 in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017 or 2016, wow for 8 years now!!!)
2023 results
% of shipments lost = .0013 = very much less than 1/2 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 763 packages are lost; my lowest loss rate ever!
% of $ sales = .0016 = just over one 6th of 1%!
2 items "lost" in 2023: USA(1), South Africa (1)
0 Italy identified as lost to "crime"
0 repaid
Things of note in 2023.
-all lost packages were not tracked
-South Africa is now blocked
2022 results
% of shipments lost = .004 = less than 1/2 of 1% of packages lost without repayment (.005% lost with repayment included), so about 1 in 250 packages are lost this is a bit worse than 2021
% of $ sales = .0078 = just over 3/4 of 1% this is just a bit higher than 2021*see notes below
10 items "lost" in 2022: India(2 1 forwarded to), Italy(2), USA(1), Canada (1), Uruguay (1), Germany(1), Australia(1), Mongolia (1 forwarded to)
1 Italy identified as lost to "crime"
2 repaid, Uruguay, and Italy (non-crime of course)
Canadian one was likely confused buyer, 3 of many items purchased, other items purchased with missing
ones were received? Didn't raise this expecting it would just cost me more, simply sadly blocked them.
India chose to take risk on sending one of the 2 missing as COGS was very low
Things of note in 2022.
-with the worst of COVID theoretically past, it is interesting that 2022 results were worse than the COVID years! Having said this some of this is due to the fact that the Italy(crime) and 2 India losses were relatively large compared to average $$ losses.
-all lost packages were not tracked
-my new blocked countries have removed 2 of the above, India, Germany
2021 results
% of shipments lost = .0033 = 1/3 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 300 packages are lost this is basically the same as 2020
% of $ sales = .004 = under 1/2 of 1% this is just a bit higher than 2020, so about 1 in 250 packages are lost
12 items "lost" in 2021 USA(4), Canada (1) UK(1), Croatia (1), Uruguay (1), Colombia (1), Mexico (1), Israel (1), Slovenia (1)
1 identified as lost to "crime"
12 lost and unrecovered so far
1 repaid (from loss in 2020 so I didn't count it)
Things of note in 2021.
-with COVID continuing, one would expect much worse results, however the actual results were better/lower than usual loss rates before COVID with a much higher sales volume during COVID!!
-one lost package to USA was through US forwarding company
-all lost packages were not tracked
-I mailed to a lot of scary countries this year like India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries etc and relatively speaking low losses to them!
2020 results
% of shipments = .003 = under 1/3 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 333 packages are lost this is lower/better than 2019
% of $ sales = .0033 = 1/3 of 1% this is lower/better than 2019
17 items "lost" in 2020 Canada(5), USA(5), UK(2), Australia(1), Greece(1), Italy(1), NZ(1), Spain(1)
1 lost to "crime" (buyer was selling stuff that "never arrived")
10 lost and unrecovered (this fewer unrecovereds than 2019!)
7 repaid
Things of note in 2020.
-COVID, one would expect much worse results, however the actual results were better/lower than usual loss rate with a much higher sales volume!!
-one lost package to Canada was to a many times repeat customer
-one lost package to Korea through US forwarding company that uses multiple IDs (so it counts as US above). I thought I had blocked them all but I missed this one, I did find and cancel due to "bad address" other attempts from the other IDs from the same forwarding company.
-all lost packages were not tracked
-even with COVID I mailed to a lot of scary countries this year like Malaysia, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries etc and no losses to them!
-the "premonition" loss signs at this point (due to the COVID/XMAS combo) do not look to be any worse than a normal year, I do not anticipate at this point the January losses for items shipped in Nov/Dec to be much, if any higher than normal.
2019 results
% of shipments = .0047 = under 1/2 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 212 packages are lost
% of $ sales = .0041 = under 1/2 of 1% this is much higher than last year but a more normal %
11 items "lost" in 2019 Czech(1), Hungary*(1), Romania(1), Russia(1), Sri Lanka (1), UK(2), Ukraine(1), USA(3)
0 believed to be lost to "crime" (none that I felt strongly about)
11 lost and unrecovered (this is the most unrecovereds, but some may bleed over to 2020)
0 repaid
Things of note in 2019.
-this is more of a normal loss rate
-the lost package to Hungary was to a many times repeat customer before and after loss
-all lost packages were not tracked
-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and most of them are not on the loss list!
-in 2019 I raised the bar on tracking, I tracked fewer packages "close to the line" in 2019. So far, zero tracked losses, so this theoretically would have saved maybe half of the loss $ if I incorporated it but I did not because I didn't closely track the relevant savings.
-see comment under what I've begun listing on .CA that used to be on .COM
2018 results
% of shipments = .0018 = under 1/5 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 550 packages are lost
% of sales = .00044 = under 1/20 of 1% ie almost negligible percent loss rate $ wise
4 items "lost" in 2018 Canada(2), USA, USA forwarder to Paraguay
1 believed to be lost to "crime" (Paraguay forwarded)
4 lost and unrecovered
0 repaid
Things of note in 2018.
-this is the lowest loss rate since I've been reviewing this way, previous record low was 8
-all lost packages were not tracked
-no items so far lost due to Canada Post strike
-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and so far only losses have been to Canada or US addresses
-only significant 2018 change was beginning to list material on .CA
2017 results
% of shipments = .0071 = under 3/4 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 140 packages are lost
(all lost packages were not tracked)
% of sales = .0044 = under 1/2 of one percent loss rate $ wise
13 items "lost"*** in 2017 Australia,Canada(5),Colombia,Italy,Russia(2),USA(3*)
3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Canada,Russia(2) based on spider senses)
10 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 Found later** Canada, 2 arrived later & repaid Colombia, Italy
3 repaid (Buyer found or advised delivery later and repaid: Canada, Colombia, Italy)
*2 of the USA losses were to USA forwarding companies (1 buyer from Paraguay, 1 buyer from China)
** on return from vacation, lot was lost in a pile of junk mail which was not dealt with and found for a few weeks
*** 1 lost lot to Canada and 1 to Italy were lost to long time, regular buyers who have continued to purchase regularly since AOK.
Things I did in 2017.
-nothing new it seems in 2017 different from 2016
2016 results
% of shipments = .004 = under one half of 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 250 packages are lost
% of sales = .0024 = about one quarter of 1 percent loss rate
8 "lost" in 2016 USA(2),Canada,India,Oman,Russia,Australia,Bolivia
1 believed to be lost to "crime" (based on spider senses)
7 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 USA advised arrival later and repaid
1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: USA)
1 odd situation, other USA buyer convinced me to unblock them and they successfully purchased 3 more items
Things I did in 2016.
-I China & Brazil require trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers especially China increased over the year, they began buying batches of stuff to make the postage palatable.
-decided against adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking) so far, am also considering doing the same for others
-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries
-I did change my flat rate shipping to Standard Shipping (outside the US) to add a few more days to the est delivery date
2015 results
% of shipments = .0097 = about 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 100 packages are lost
% of sales = .0090 = about 1 percent loss rate
13 "lost" in 2015 Russia(5) Belarus, Canada, China, French Polynesia, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka
3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Russia, ordered 3 separately close together)
9 lost and unrecovered(so far)
1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Canada)
Things I did in 2015.
-I changed China and Brazil to custom shipping requiring trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers dropped dramatically.
-am considering adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking), however had many sales, including one for $1500 which more than offsets the minor losses.
-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries
2014 results
% of shipments = .0051 = 1/2 a % of packages are lost, so about 1 in 200 packages are lost
% of sales = .0040 = .4% of sales ie less than 1/2 of one percent loss rate
10 "lost" in 2014 USA(2) Nepal(1) China(2) Brazil(3) Germany(1) Russia (1)
2 believed to be lost to "crime" (China)
5 lost and unrecovered(so far) USA(2) Brazil (2) Russia
3 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Nepal,Germany,Brazil)
2013 results one half of one percent of sales loss rate:
0.51% "insurance" loss rate (10 unrecovered losses USAx3,Argentina,Chinax3,France,Israel,North Korea)
0.3% as a result of "crime" (6 shipments)
0.21% as a result of items lost in the mail (4 shipments)
(Note in 2013 2 packages “lost” and later arrived and Buyers repaid(Brazil, Russia), 1 package loss partially covered by Canada post, no losses covered by 3rd party insurer)
2012 results - under 1% of sales loss rate:
0.83% "insurance": loss rate (unrecovered loss 9 shipments Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chinax2,Indonesia,Russia,Turkey)
0.78% as a result of "crime" (2 shipments)
0.04% as a result of items lost in the mail (7 shipments)
A reminder that 2012 is the year that CP covered the small packets, I had a few recoveries this way.
I had a big crime loss within Canada (this was also spelled out in a different thread).
reallynicestamps
·2 years agoUntracked items are usually cheaper. The shipping is a few dollars. The process is also standardized to the point that you can resolve it by sending a stock message and a refund.
The high cost of tracking versus the occasional loss not necessarily to a scam is the basis of Cookie Jar Insurance.
It is hard to understand though when one is a new seller, defrauded on an early transaction, when there are not many pennies in the Cookie Jar to offset the loss.
And if the INR for a tracked item, turns out, after refund, to have been a delay in the mail, all the more painful.
We tell them "It's business, not personal." but it still stings.
The most we old hands can do is stop the newbies from digging a deeper hole by refusing to cooperate , or leaving false positives, or angry Responses.
ilikehockeyjerseys
·2 years agoI think part of it is sample size. This goes for both tracked or untracked losses.
Casual sellers don't have the volume to justify the liability of returns on platforms like eBay, Amazon, Etsy, etc. The cost of losses are spread across your entire volume of sales.
Look at a full time business that does 4000 sales at an average of $30 each with $15 of unrecoverable costs per sale (inventory, shipping supplies, postage). The cost of that liability is 15 cents per sale (not counting the cost of your time). That is very easy to brush off.
Someone who does 1 or 2 sales a month doesn't have the same incentive because if they get unlucky and even 1 or 2 transactions go badly, that wipes out a huge chunk of their revenue. I think that's where the emotional aspect comes from. It's usually new or casual sellers who are very worried about INRs.
It's why for someone who wants to sell casually, it makes a lot more sense to throw something on a local classified site. There is still liability with scams, but most of them can be avoided with basic common sense.
My point about tracked items is that the liability per item is usually much higher so even for a high volume seller, it takes fewer failed transactions for the costs to add up. One of my largest sales last year was a 20 KG package in the $750+ price range. Had the buyer felt that I did not describe the item fairly and opened a return, it would have cost me hundreds of dollars to pay for a return shipping label. The original shipping label was nearly $200 dollars. Had that sale gone off the rails, the unrecoverable costs for that one failed transaction would have been the equivalent of maybe 30-60 average untracked orders. Luckily, everything went great! Granted, that's an extreme example.
ilikehockeyjerseys
·2 years agoI think that INR cases are way overblown. Maybe specific categories have more issues. I find that as long as your listings are set up with the economy shipping delivery estimate and not lettermail delivery estimate, you almost won't get INRs.
I appreciate you sharing your stats yearly. It shows people that INRs aren't the big deal that most new sellers fear they might be. Liability is much higher with tracked items because the unrecoverable costs associated with a tracked return (shipping, return shipping, devalued item, time) are going to always exceed the unrecoverable costs associated with INRs. Untracked items are usually cheaper. The shipping is a few dollars. The process is also standardized to the point that you can resolve it by sending a stock message and a refund.
reallynicestamps
·2 years agoIt very much depends on category-- or more exactly demographic.
There is a criminal demographic- males between 15 and 35, with a majority also being unmarried*.
If your product attracts that group, you will have more problems than with other more socially stable consumers.
* although given that most people don't marry/ settle down until 28 these days, this is less important.
sparx_63
·2 years agoHello all
I also use the cookie jar insurance on items I now send lettermail.
I ship all sorts of items from video and computer games to figurines collectibles etc. I am currently selling at a rate of about 500 items a year with about 1100 listed. non lettermail items currently ship either Chit Chats or Canada Post. Chit Chats insurance costs .49 CAD per $100 value up to $300. When I ship lettermail I cookie jar .49 cents per sale. I started shipping all video games, DVD, blu rays and paper epehemera including trading cards under $65 in value this past year using lettermail. Have had ZERO (0) lost claims and currently $58 CAD is in the cookie jar.... 🙂
As a result of shipping lettermail with free ship (because I know the fixed cost) my sales have tripled in those categories ....
I truly believe in the cookie jar.......
rocketscollectibles
·2 years agoI think the stamps category should be one with a very low to no scammers at all. Your stats kinda proves it. Not accurately representative of the overall INR claims percentage in my opinion. The value of packages sent untracked also highly influence. Someone will be more tempted to do a false claim on a $100 package than a $10 one. Would be great to add at which value you add tracking or which package value were claimed. That's something ebay starting to charge taxes hurted, as buyer pay more than you sold for and amount is more tempting for them. Pushed to add tracking on lower orders than before.
ricarmic
OP2 years agoI would say that the stamp world is generally safer, however as in all categories what it is is what matters. In my world stamps from PRC are much much more likely to have INR or other problems, this was especially true 5 or so years ago when their stamps were very hot, much competed for, and selling at premiums. Since then their market has calmed down, and the related problems with it, but my point is that even the "safest" categories have their own worry spots.
Tracking "rules" for me vary by order.
Generally for Canadians $100 plus gets tracked, although if it is a repeat known customer the bar is higher, say $150ish.
Generally everything I used to send "small packet" to the US now goes as "tracked packet". My differential is about 30c a package (keeping in mind I use discounted postage) so the upgrade covers two aspects, it covers me better, and it provides what I think more customers, especially ones in the US are expecting, ie tracking (I do think it also helps diminish communication and related problems around INRs because the buyers can see that I mailed it when I said I did and that it is making progress although perhaps slower than they'd like. I believe that helps diminish the late arrivals dings, but that's simply a belief).
Internationally, the $100 rule holds as well. I do not sell much big stuff overseas because they pay the extra shipping which is the tracking price which is exhorbitant relative to the normal lot size.
The two lost items this year were $60 and $40 sized, the $60 one was to the US, that one was lost very early in 2023 before I converted all US small packets to tracked packets, so that wouldn't happen this year.
As a note, I have seen an increase of non INR "crime" type situations where folks are doing things other than INR'ing an item because of course it is tracked now so there's evidence that it was received. They aren't mentioned here because of course they aren't an INR. If the number becomes "noticeable" I'll maybe include stats on that as well, because I do fund that out of the cookie jar too.
reallynicestamps
·2 years agoCookie Jar Insurance for the win!