Thought Experiment: Global Shipping Risk Assessment by Country
Summary: dinomitesales shared an interesting experiment where they fed country data into ChatGPT to assess global shipping risks. Some participants, including lotzofuniquegoodies, raised concerns about packaging regulations, particularly in Germany, and how they affect shipping decisions, highlighting that Germany and France impose significant packaging requirements on importers. phc64 pointed out an error regarding the Netherlands Antilles, which no longer exists as a country, while Anonymous User humorously noted Canada's absence from the lists. Personal experiences were shared by sapphyres-designer-jewellery and another participant regarding unreliable shipping to Chile and Malaysia, which they felt were misclassified. Finally, cottagewoman mentioned a planned Canadian global shipping program by eBay, underscoring the evolving nature of international shipping logistics.
I fed all the countries in the world into ChatGPT and asked for it's assessment on shipping risk (i.e. countries which would be generally safe and trouble-free to ship to, vs. those that you should avoid). This was the output. Seemed like an interesting thought experiment I could post here for further discussion.
What do you think about this assessment? Are there any countries in the GREEN list you would never ship to (and why); similarly are there countries in the RED list you think aren't as bad? Any YELLOW countries you have good relationships with and would happily bump up to GREEN?
Personally, there's a few GREEN ones I would avoid at the moment - notably Israel due to the war/political instability; and Germany because of the packaging requirements (although I haven't seen much discussion of this lately - is this still an issue for casual imports into the country?).
✔️GREEN — Low Risk / Minimal Issues
(Reliable postal systems, strong tracking, low loss/theft)
North America & Territories
United States
Bermuda
Saint Pierre and Miquelon
Caribbean
Puerto Rico
U.S. Virgin Islands
Aruba
Cayman Islands
Central & South America
Chile
Uruguay
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)
French Guiana
Europe
Andorra
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Gibraltar
Greece
Guernsey
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Jersey
Latvia
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Monaco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
San Marino
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Svalbard and Jan Mayen
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Vatican City State
Africa
Mauritius
Seychelles
Reunion
Botswana
Namibia
Morocco
Middle East
Bahrain
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
Israel
Oman
Kuwait
Asia-Pacific
Japan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Macau
Taiwan
Brunei Darussalam
Australia
New Zealand
Guam
American Samoa
New Caledonia
Wallis and Futuna
🟡 YELLOW — Medium Risk / Workable With Tracking
(Generally safe in urban areas, but slower customs, rural delays, or some loss risk)
North America & Territories
Greenland
Mexico (urban areas safer with couriers)
Caribbean
Bahamas
Barbados
Saint Kitts-Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Turks and Caicos Islands
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
Martinique
Guadeloupe
Central & South America
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Suriname
Europe (Eastern/Southern)
Croatia, Republic of
Romania
Bulgaria
Serbia
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Africa
Egypt
Gabon Republic
Cape Verde Islands
Kenya
Ghana
Tanzania
Zambia
Tunisia
Lesotho
Swaziland (Eswatini)
Middle East
Turkey
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Asia-Pacific
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia (urban areas okay)
French Polynesia
Cook Islands
Niue
Fiji
Palau
Vanuatu
Tonga
🚫RED — High Risk / Avoid If Possible
(High loss/theft risk, very slow customs, unreliable tracking, or political instability)
North America & Territories
— (none in this category)
Caribbean
Belize
Dominica
El Salvador
Grenada
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Montserrat
Netherlands Antilles
Nicaragua
Panama (borderline yellow/red — customs issues)
Central & South America
Bolivia
Guyana
Peru
Venezuela
Europe
Belarus
Moldova
Ukraine (war risk)
Russian Federation (sanctions & delays)
Africa
Nigeria
Somalia
Central African Republic
Chad
Mali
Burundi
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Sierra Leone
Congo, Democratic Republic of the
Congo, Republic of the
Angola
Eritrea
Equatorial Guinea
Libya
Western Sahara
Middle East
Lebanon
Iraq
Yemen
Asia-Pacific
Afghanistan
Yemen
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Philippines
Cambodia
Laos
Nepal
Mongolia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Bhutan
Papua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Micronesia
Nauru
Tuvalu
Western Samoa / Samoa
reallynicestamps
·1 year agoChatGPT suffers from GIGO.
It can't weigh the value of the opinions it is scraping.
Israel is on my no-fly list, because stuff sent there does not get delivered in my opinion.
And it's a war zone.
So is India for the same reason.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are too, but for political reasons.
lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year agoVery true. Sad we have to use that mindset with most everything online. I have been using it for eBay search results for a little over 3 years. At least for what the what is returned for results part. It's like having an option for spinning a wheel or using a Ouija board. Maybe include any election in Alberta to that list?
dinomitesales
OP1 year agoI used to be fine with Israel - it was one of the country's available via Canada Post Tracked Packet, so it at least had tracking and I had Canada Post's back if it went missing. But due to the political instability there at the moment it's not worth shipping - air travel to the country can be impacted at a moment's notice.
One of my most problematic countries with regard to INR cases was Italy, so I blocked them for personal reasons. I've actually sent a few things untracked to Chile as well and never had an issue with them (knock on wood).
Also, just a suggestion: If people want to discuss this potential new Canadian GSP hinted at during eBay Open maybe start a new thread? If this one ends up becoming the defacto discussion forum for that topic then people aren't going to be able to find it when they're looking in the future.
cottagewoman
·1 year agoAnonymous User
·1 year agoA Canadian GSP program??
Yikes! When that happens, all the negative talk about overcharged shipping and delays with the eBay system in the US will be reversed, and we will be the bad guys ...
marnotom!
·1 year agoOnly if sellers decide to use the program.
lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year ago@marnotom! Are you picturing an automagical opting in for Canadian sellers? Not even going to try to imagine what could potentially happen to current cp discounts!!!
In the USA from speaking to numberous sellers they didn't know a) how they got into the program and b) could never figure a way out. Either for one ofs or permanently. Many just threw their hands in the air and gave up.
Anonymous User
·1 year agoI am guessing that those who gave up are the sames ones that use the eBay system for international shipping without knowing the final cost to the buyer, who don't respond to courteous suggestions that they try a different shipping method when offers are declined, and who are suffering from low sales.
I am hoping an expert can tell one how to get out of this program if they haven't been able to figure out how to opt out by themselves - I am assuming it's a seller selectable option, so it must be possible.
Anonymous User
·1 year agoand ... there's a lot of stuff I want to buy from US sellers - their item only offer prices are very competitve, they have stuff I can't find in Canada, but their shipping costs are stupidly high. I often wonder if they are aware, but based on their lack of response, I am assuming they do know and don't need the sales.
Does eBay get a bigger piece of their high intrrnational shipping rates?
recped
·1 year agoIf they are not it would only be because whomever they contracted to run EIS is scooping it all.
Basically they charge USPS International rates minus 5 - 10%, I ship to overseas buyers at about 30 - 40% off USPS rates and still have a healthy handling charge included.
Of course the main reason for EIS (and GSP in the UK) is those two countries top the list for sellers that are VERY resistant to shipping anything to anyone if they are outside the their own country (some would call them xenophobes). That attitude hardly exists amongst Canadian eBay sellers, it's pretty much a given that you ship at least to the US and for many sellers worlwide or at least mostly worldwide.
lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year ago@Anonymous
I guess to them they see it as Canada as a not worth it market. That or just didn't enjoy the few extra keystrokes for international shipping and maybe 1 more pc of paper...olden days. I would ask US sellers if they would ship with USPS directly. I even took the time to explain the cost difference and time it took with GSP then eIS. Some tried but couldn't figure it out. Bigger sellers could never be bothered. After a while I just gave up. It's forced me to try harder to either locate in Canada or if I could get...get via Amazon. And I used to be fairly regularly...in the past from US sellers.
Anonymous User
·1 year agoAh yes, the good old days ...
Do you remember when you would hide a ten dollar bill in a folded piece of paper, put it in an envelope, use a pen to write the receiver's address on the envelope, buy a stamp, drop it in the mail and wait a week or two to get something? A true buyer/seller deal, with eBay acting as a venue only.
Trust in each other was key, until the scammers started moving in. Scammers are everywhere now, they call me at least 3 times a day and my partner gets dozens of scam emails on her phone every day. It's hard to believe that Canadians get scammed out of billions every year.
Ah yes... the good old days ...
In the current world, which is being further corrupted by AI, nobody trusts anybody - the relationships were had then no longer exist.
mrdutch1001
·1 year ago" and we will be the bad guys ." ...according to DT, we already are"Mean and nasty"
Anonymous User
·1 year agoAnd our Prime is that, plus 'stubborn'
mrdutch1001
·1 year agonot to get engrossed in Canadian politics here but current PM is exactly what Canada needed ....someone with economics, logic, sense and sensibility...
sapphyres-designer-jewellery
·1 year agoComments:
Chile - Not Green, no way in... I was staying in Chile and shipped a whole pile of packages, ALL of them got stolen by the postal authorities! The receipt they gave me for tracking the tracked ones was bogus. They are all a bunch of thieves. They are on my red list from personal experience.
Malaysia - I would put that on the Green list.
Samoa/Micronesia - never had problems shipping there. Although for Samoa things might have changed, it's been 20 years since I sent anything there.
I'd also put Italy, Spain and Portugal on the yellow list. I've had quite a few problems shipping there, they are not on my list of places I ship to on eBay.
C.
hansatrade
·1 year agoExactly the opposite here. All items shipped to Chile arrived to their destination. BTW, Chile is the ONLY South American country I ship to - all other are excluded, except of Falklands (shipped hrough the UK)
Malaysia - a real horror, banned since many years. 80% of the packages were lost.
sapphyres-designer-jewellery
·1 year agoIt might depend what you're shipping and where you're shipping it from. I was in Puerto Chacabuco which is some hole of a town (where the local mart only has rotten produce). There's stray dogs roaming the streets, one dog I saw was eating another dog's tail (which was no longer attached to the other dog). I shipped some letters from Punta Arenas without problems, that was a much bigger city. My stuff was obviously stolen at the Correos in Puerto Chacabuco where I mailed it. They took my postcards which I paid to put stamps on, but they didn't put stamps in front of me. My Spanish was not good enough to argue with them at the time (I was just learning, did not know how to say "put stamps on them right now"), so I gave them the money and left. None of the postcards made it. Seriously, they stole everything I dropped off, and all the money I paid to have it shipped, and gave me bogus tracking for all the registered packages.
C.
lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year ago@dinomitesales
I did a random test using ChatGTP as to which countries DJT is most annoyed with.
First time Canada came in first. Whodda thunk it!!!
2nd time China. Canada was 3rd.
3rd attempt China. Canada was 5th.
Makes one wonder if he is a shareholder in ChatGTP?
Yes. Same format each time!!
Disclaimer: Your results may vary!!
dinomitesales
OP1 year agoAnd someone needs to let eBay know that Netherlands Antilles doesn’t exist - I just copied and pasted the list of countries from what they had available when selecting “excluded countries” lol.
Anonymous User
·1 year agoAh, so the list wasn"t really generated by AI - you put in the country names and AI just picked the winners and losers.
reallynicestamps
·1 year agosomeone needs to let eBay know that Netherlands Antilles doesn’t exist
For that matter, St. Pierre et Miquelon is a department of France and not a colony or independent nation.
I often see SP&M on "no ship" lists of US sellers who likely don't know that it is in the Gulf of St Lawrence.
OTOH, they may not know of the Gulf of St Lawrence either.
sapphyres-designer-jewellery
·1 year agoYou can ship to SP&M by addressing the letter to FRANCE and putting SP&M as the province/region. I know this because I know someone in Reunion and he told me to address his letters to France and put Reunion before France and then Paris would forward it there.
I also know to ship to Jersey and Guernsey you can address it to the UK. I had a letter going to Jersey addressed to the UK once (buyer was trying to get around the Jersey block). I shipped it and then inquired at Royal Mail if that was OK and if he'd receive it. They told me Jersey and Guernsey are part of Royal Mail in the UK and the mail will be forwarded there.
C.
Anonymous User
·1 year agoInteresting, but it appears Canada didn't even make the list. Are we below RED or above GREEN?
phc64
·1 year agoThe reason the Netherlands Antilles is listed as 'red' ('High Risk - Avoid if possible') may well be that it ceased to exist fifteen years ago.
lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year ago@dinomitesales Thanks for sharing!! Interesting. As a test I tried sending a low value item recently to Germany via Intl. Tracked. I was hesitant to ship because of packaging regulations. Customer pleaded. It was delivered in 4/5 days with minimal basic packaging and no added customs charges on a Saturday. Maybe I got super lucky? Regarding chatGPT and Google AI....like wikipedia. Should both be taken with a large number of grains of salt. I've seen other news reports and some of the assorted tests were scary to say the least. So personally not ready to jump on the bandwagon!!!!
It appears it did not take packaging regulations/requirements or additional customs details into consideration...well atleast according Google AI. Note the USA is "considering" special packaging requirements when it comes down to recycling. (First I had heard there was anything like that being consided. Can see that going over like a very large lead balloon.) As for the several applicable European countries, it makes it very challenging for small volume shippers to consider including.
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lotzofuniquegoodies
·1 year agoPart 2:
Many countries have special packaging requirements for international shipments to ensure product safety, compliance with health and safety regulations, and adherence to local laws. These requirements vary by product type (e.g., food, electronics, hazardous materials) and are often enforced at customs. Here's an overview of countries with notable packaging regulations:
🌍 General Packaging Requirements by Country
🇪🇺 European Union (EU)
Packaging Waste Directive: Requires recyclable or reusable packaging.
REACH & RoHS: Restrictions on hazardous substances (mainly for electronics).
Green Dot System: Some countries require you to pay into recycling schemes (e.g., Germany, France).
🇩🇪 Germany
LUCID Packaging Register: You must register packaging and pay recycling fees.
VerpackG (Packaging Act): All packaging must be licensed with a dual system.
Mandatory recycling labels and eco-design considerations.
🇫🇷 France
Triman Logo: Required on recyclable packaging.
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) registration.
No plastic wrapping for some produce (e.g., fruits/vegetables).
Language: Packaging must be labeled in French.
🇮🇹 Italy
Mandatory material identification codes on all packaging (as per EU Decision 97/129/EC).
Labeling must be in Italian and clearly indicate disposal methods.
🇨🇳 China
Strict labeling and certification requirements, especially for food, cosmetics, and electronics.
China RoHS compliance for electronics.
Products must often be labeled in Chinese.
Pallets often must be heat-treated and ISPM-15 certified.
🇯🇵 Japan
Must follow Japanese Industrial Standards (JIS).
Over-packaging is common but must still meet eco-labeling requirements.
Language: Japanese labeling is typically required.
Emphasis on presentation and cleanliness.
🇧🇷 Brazil
Portuguese labeling required.
ANVISA regulates packaging for food, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals.
Wood packaging must be fumigated and ISPM-15 compliant.
reallynicestamps
·1 year agoInteresting that the IMPORTER is responsible for those German (and French) packaging requirements that the US Sellers Board is so het up about.