Harper headed for majority

[tobyshitzu]

Good news!!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/author/mainstreet/

"A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB). The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.37%, 19/20. With 5,147 respondents it is the largest ‘Federal Horserace’ telephone poll of 2015.

“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper. It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided."

[tobyshitzu]

NDP falling out of the race

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/ontario-looks-like-a-tory-liberal-battle-mainstreet-poll

[pierrelebel]

In the meantime, today September 24th, Nanos suggests:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/national-election-race-a-toss-up-for-14th-straight-day-1.257...

[pierrelebel]

Sept 26: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/09/26/canada-election-2015-swing-ridings_n_8198874.html

(valve please do not read that article)

[pierrelebel]

This one looks better for you guys :

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

if you are looking into a minority government.

[tobyshitzu]

better by the day as nanos tracking poll ia confirming the others now.    ndp appears to be out of the race

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150927%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

[pierrelebel]

" ndp appears to be out of the race"

Yes, the NDP seems to have lost several points since the "niqab" issue came up in the French debate.  Those points went to the Conservatives and mostly to the Bloc.

Three weeks to go.  A bit early to claim "out of the race".

[ilurkthereforiam]

This election is going to be too close to call.

[tobyshitzu]

ndp plunge 17 points and falling!!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/ndp-support-plunges-in-quebec-poll-sugges...

[pierrelebel]

Is this good news for Harper and the Conservatives?

'Abacus pegs support for the NDP in Quebec at 30 per cent.

The Liberals are second with 24 per cent,

the Conservatives third with 21 per cent"

[ilurkthereforiam]

It is good news for Harper as long as the votes go to the Bloc or the Conservatives.

[pierrelebel]

Still close nationally:  http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150928%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

while the Bloc is gaining in Quebec (to everyone's surprise)

[ilurkthereforiam]

Quebecers know Mulcare is a cameleon and is only in the NDP because the Conservatives wouldn't cough up enough cash.

He was a Liberal provincial cabinet minister not too long ago.

The support for the NDP in Quebec was because of Jack Layton.

[disisus]

Top Tory sources back up Mulcair's story. 

Two Conservatives who had senior government roles at the time said this week that their recollection supports Mulcair’s assertion that talks broke off over his strong disagreement with the Harper government’s environmental policy.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/top-federal-conservatives-back-tom-mulcai...

[pierrelebel]

And the trend in Quebec continues for the NDP while the Conservatives and the Bloc both gain

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20150929%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

The next French debate is Friday.

[pierrelebel]

NDP still slipping. The gap is widening.  Latest Nanos poll released at 6:00am this morning (Oct 2):

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151001%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

[tobyshitzu]

looks like a majority http://angusreid.org/election-2015-october/

[disisus]

If an election were held today, who would win?

The Conservatives. The Conservative Party leads with 126 seats and is 44 seats from winning a majority government.

Con: 32.3%

NDP: 26.8%

Libs: 30.4%

Based on the average of all the polls.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

[pierrelebel]

I conducted my own poll. 

I called my sister in Edmonton (Conservative territory), my brothers in Quebec (NDP and Bloc territory), my kids in Toronto (NDP and Liberal territory), my brothers-in-law in Eastern Ontario (Conservative territory) and, taking their comments and the trend into account, I now predict (you read it here first, folks)

A Liberal minority government

I know I am in minority here. Most predict Harper will retain power.  That's OK.  Their wishful thinking will not change the results!

With over two weeks to go, Mary and I have not yet decided who to vote for.

[pierrelebel]

October 3rd:

Battleground Ontario

–

There has been a noticeable

movement in one of the key battlegrounds in favour of the

Liberals over the past two evenings of tracking. Support for

the Liberals in battleground Ontario stands at 43.6% while the

Conservatives are at 33.8%, the NDP at 18.6% and the Greens

at 4.0%.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151002%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

[tobyshitzu]

Must be the 1 in 20 outlier that is outside the margin of error