October 10th : http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151009%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
Liberals now have 6% lead over the Conservatives!
Remember: last election Nanos was the closest to actual results.
great news for the country! a lot can still happen over the next 10 days though...
Nanos is a 3-day rolling average, so that means the more Conservative favourable numbers that dropped off for this report were from four days ago. Possibly (hopefully) indicating a deeper stronger trend away from the Cons is still growing.
Then again, as someone said, (Nanos being a phone survey) "what kind of weirdos answer their phone?" time will tell 
"what kind of weirdos answer their phone?"
Maybe someone unhappy with the PMO sorting out which refugees should be admitted into Canada (based on their religion or race) when the Prime Minister had indicated several weeks ago that efforts were being made to speed up the process 
or maybe Canadians unhappy with the latest employment statistics released by the Canadian government telling us that 60,000 full-time jobs (with benefits) were lost last month and replaced by 72,000 part-time jobs (without benefits) in retail, food service and call centres were added leaving Harper and his finance minister to claim all was well thanks to their administration.
or maybe just ordinary Canadians fed up with the lies and misrepresentations coming from the PM and his team. Maybe those Canadians just want a change.
"Reducing TFSA allowable contribution from 10k to 5k. That’s a tax grab."
Is it?
Harper increased it from $5,500 to $10,000 a few months ago. A gift to the rich and high income earners in this country. Stats show that less than 5% of Canadians with TFSAs had reached their cumulative limit of $36,500
Reverting contribution to $5,500 annually does not affect most Canadians but the few (like you and me) who can afford to put $10,000 away, year after year, for tax-free benefits. Most Canadians cannot. No new current tax is generated by the move so there is no "tax grab". It is minimizing an eventual "tax expenditure". And you already know that!
"Sez the senior income splitting will stay but Liberals are a tax hungry breed so don’t count on it staying. " There is no valid reason to think seniors will lose their income splitting benefits. Spreading fear is what Harper has done for the last three months. It is not working.
"Running billions in deficit when we’re just getting out of it." What else is new. Harper ran huge deficits when we had a recession in 2008-2009 He has kept running deficits even when times got better 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013.. Canada experienced a mild recession earlier this year (nothing compared to 2008). This is the time to stimulate the economy. Look at the dismal employment numbers. Something must be done. To have $10B deficit each year for three years is not the end of the world (much less than Harper's deficits in any case) but will help create jobs.
"Playing Robinhood with the high wage earners."
Taking from the top 1% to give to the 99% of the population is not a bad thing. If you and I end up paying a few more dollars in income taxes, so be it. It can only happen because we can afford it.
October 11th: Liberals maintain their 6% lead over Conservatives
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151010%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
Welcome back prior. Long time no see!
The latest Forum Research poll, conducted for the Star and released today, shows the same 6% lead for the Liberals
http://poll.forumresearch.com/
Liberals 37%
Conservatives 31%
It should be noted that ten days ago, the same Forum Research showed the Conservatives with a comfortable lead:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1396/opposition-parties-tied-for-second-place/
Sentiment has turned very quickly against Harper and his band of conservatives and opportunistic politics of fear and division.
It is time to say goodbye to Harper, finally.
One has to understand the psychology of an individual and when it comes to a leader of people it behooves the populace to look deep. What a person says means for the most part - nothing. What a person does and has done - means much more. Also we are often molded by the influences around us in early life. In Stephen Harper's case he is very molded by his past and people who influenced him. But most of all Stephen Harper is out for Stephen Harper. That's not to say that a vast majority of politicians at an level aren't out for the same, but Harper is different in that he is an ideologue, as well as a man who demands total control and he does all this very quietly. Harper is like a religious fanatic but he couldn't find a steeple to stand under but he did find the Parliament buildings. Neither would Stephen Harper be where he is now had it not been for a major mistake by the Liberals years ago, followed by appointed leaders who were the worst choices possible and left the voting public to keep gravitating to Harper because for many it's better to know the devil you know than the one you don't.
But there is way too much about Stephen Harper the man than can be gone into here. Suffice to say be glad he never had as much power as he would have liked or we would all be in a worse state than he has already created.
But hopefully with Harper's political demise we have a new future that will not only create a brighter future for Canada but help us regain the respect we once had in the world instead of being lap dogs for other countries who say 'jump' and our leader asks 'how high would you like'?
So who would best take over the leadership roll? There is no simple, clear cut, "this guy is perfect" answer. Far from it. I have even considered not voting for the first time, but then the thoughts that if too many others thought the same that it might actually help Harper win again brings me back to feeling a need to do something! First of all in case any of you out there have forgotten, I detest the party system. To me, they're just gangs in really good suits. But we're stuck with them unfortunately until the people speak up, loudly. I also dislike that a leader is voted in based on the seats won. There should be a separate vote for the national leader, and even Provincial as well during those elections. But again, we're stuck with that. So being as we're in a situation we can do little about and Harper has to go...... so decisions have to be made. Then there is another problem and that is where one lives. I for instance live in the country and the local MP is Conservative and a farmer and all the backyard barbecues and discussions around the stock desk at the local mill say keep voting for a guy who will take care of his own. All the other people and events in the world and all the problems in the environment and all the other pressing problems around us..........come a distant secondary (if even that). So in my area sadly my vote is probably wasted with the exception that I have noticed the Liberals have gained momentum in the area and there just might, I say 'might' be a hope for a change, as distant as it may be. But am I happy with Trudeau's views? Not entirely. Mulcair? Not entirely happy there either. Also what I am not happy about in either case are major items, not minor. But I have to keep reminding myself the main objective is get rid of the main problem and that's Harper and in the future the others may alter their views even slightly if the people demand it.
But after saying all that, it's also possible that Harper may win again, albeit it won't me a majority government I don't believe. But even that's not a sure thing since he's started handing out money like a drunken sailor on a Saturday night. And they say 'buying votes' is illegal LOL! Remember in Ontario the Liberals were not expected to win the last election and to get a majority was just too much to think of.........but they did.
Alas I'll sit back and mushahida.
D
AngusReid and Mainstreet seem to be the only two pollsters in the last three days to see the Conservatives in the lead (1%-2%).
Everyone else - Nanos, Forum, EKOS, Innovative, Leger - see the Liberals with a growing lead (up to 6%).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015
I think it is time to concede your title "headed for majority" will not happen.
The Liberals lead increases to 6.8%
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151011%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
At Thanksgiving dinner yesterday it was unanimous: Harper must go (7 Liberal votes, 3 NDP votes)
Old news. That poll was taken October 8-10
Today, the most recent seat projections combining all polls:
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html
Liberals 136
Conservatives 118
NDP 80
As predicted earlier, we are heading for a Liberal government, most likely a minority although a slight majority is still possible if Quebec voters drop the NDP
Must be hard for you guys to swallow: Prime Minister Trudeau in power later this month!
