Harper headed for majority

[tobyshitzu]

Good news!!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/author/mainstreet/

"A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB). The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.37%, 19/20. With 5,147 respondents it is the largest ‘Federal Horserace’ telephone poll of 2015.

“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper. It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided."

[disisus]

By the way how many federal civil servant (if any) currently wear the niqab at work?

Statistics from 2011 show only 1.8 per cent of 257,000 federal employees are Muslim women, and only a small subset of them is likely to wear face coverings.

Probably none.

[ilurkthereforiam]

Harper's attack on the niqab could backfire on him.

It may work in Quebec, but he isn't the one who is going to benefit from his attacks.

The Bloc will gain the votes and it could backfire on him in Ontario.

I am seriously thinking about spoiling the ballot rather vote NDP or Liberal.

[pierrelebel]

"but he isn't the one who is going to benefit from his attacks."

Unfortunately, all major polls so far clearly show gains in Quebec for both the Conservatives and the Bloc starting with that first French debate when the niqab issue first surfaced. The NDP has been the main loser.

[ilurkthereforiam]

I don't see the Conservatives gaining enough from it to get them more seats.

I believe that the women should wear the niqab during the swearing in ceremonies but since they agreed to remove it for identification purposes prior to the ceremony I am ok with it.

If they have daughters that were born outside of Canada I believe that they will not ask to wear it if they wait to become citizens as adults.

Canada is a tossed salad and we should be willing to accept people as they are.

[femmefan1946]

If you can recognize who this person in the niqab is, then maybe there is no actual problem with idenifying people wearing niquabs?

[pierrelebel]

Despite all the "dirty tricks" used in the campaign, the Conservatives cannot take the lead.

Latest poll released this morning still shows a tight race between the Liberals and the Conservatives with the NDP trailing far behind. 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151007%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

In the meantime the Bloc is still gaining in Quebec in the "niqab" issue.

[pierrelebel]

Forum Research results published in the Toronto Star today:

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/08/liberals-move-back-into-lead-new-forum-poll-...

It is worth taking a look at the results of their poll a week ago (ancient history):

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1396/opposition-parties-tied-for-second-place/

It seems the "niqab" issue is not working so well for Harper after all.  Canadians are not that stupid, are they?

[pierrelebel]

Will this news story help Harper get more votes:

"The Prime Minister’s Office directed Canadian immigration officials to stop processing one of the most vulnerable classes of Syrian refugees this spring and declared that all UN-referred refugees would require approval from the Prime Minister, a decision that halted a critical aspect of Canada’s response to a global crisis."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/prime-ministers-office-ordered-halt-to-refugee-processi...

[disisus]

The Liberals are now leading in the polls.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

[ilurkthereforiam]

"The Prime Minister’s Office directed Canadian immigration officials to stop processing one of the most vulnerable classes of Syrian refugees this spring and declared that all UN-referred refugees would require approval from the Prime Minister, a decision that halted a critical aspect of Canada’s response to a global crisis."

Actions like this will cause a lot of people to drop Harper.

[femmefan1946]

The niqab is not something I can understand a confident woman wanting to wear.

But if we prevent a woman who has been forced to wear it by her 'traditional' men, then those guys can become citizens and she can't.

In less traditional households, I can see young men being insulted on behalf of their traditional grandmothers, and becoming radicalized as a result.

And once again, the women have unveiled in private for identification by female officials and been sworn in during that ceremony. The public ceremony is just a public celebration of the private vows.

Probably worth noting that this nasty wedge was brought up after Harper hired Lyton Crosby, the Australian dirty tricks specialist. (Did he come in under the temporary foreign workers program? Are there no Canadian dirty tricks specialists?)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/10/canada-conservatives-lynton-crosby-election

[art-in-the-making]

Well, if Harper can hire an Australian muckraker, fitting that high profile Americans have stepped up to turn Harper's TPP home run into a weak pop fly. Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump among others from all sides of the spectrum quick to reserve judgment or reject the deal. Which doesn't necessarily mean anything for the Canadian perspective - but certainly gives one reason to believe it is not the epic no-brainer Harper would like us to think.

The big question I have centres around how much sovereignty we are giving up to multinational corporations.

[art-in-the-making]

"The Prime Minister’s Office directed Canadian immigration officials to stop processing one of the most vulnerable classes of Syrian refugees this spring and declared that all UN-referred refugees would require approval from the Prime Minister, a decision that halted a critical aspect of Canada’s response to a global crisis."

I agree with lurk - stuff like this will be Harper's undoing.

[disisus]

Obviously Harper doesn't trust our immigration department or the UN if he feels it's necessary to pull files and have an independent audit of some sort.

So considering he felt the need to intervene, according to him, for our security of course, would it be reasonable to assume that he might feel it necessary to intervene with other departments that protect us. Like perhaps CSIS? Is that why he insists that no parliamentary oversight was required or written into Bill C-51? Now I think I understand. He was planning on personally providing all the oversight required. Why didn't he just explain that. I'm sure many people would understand and thank him for his personal sacrifice and dedication to his country.

[pierrelebel]

Oct 9 : http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151008%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Support for the major federal parties in the

nightly Nanos tracking stands at 34.0% for the Liberals, 31.0%

for the Conservatives, 25.0% for the NDP, and 4.2% for the

Greens nationally.

[pierrelebel]

October 9th (ten days to go)

A Forum poll at the end of September gave the Conservatives a seven-point edge over the Liberals, but in its latest poll published Thursday the Liberals are up by four.

Abacus Data gave the Conservatives a three-point lead a little less than two weeks ago, but now puts that gap at one point.

EKOS Research was showing a seven-point advantage for the Tories, but now has the margin at just two points.

Nanos Research, which had the Liberals up by almost five points, now has them ahead by just two.

Though these findings may look different in that they give the lead to one party or another, the differing results are all within the polls' respective margins of error.

In fact, in these recent polls, which range across different methodologies, the Liberals and Conservatives have both scored between 31 and 35 per cent support. That is a strong indication of a tie existing between the two parties, with the New Democrats now definitively in third place with between 21 and 26 per cent.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct8-1.3262692

[pierrelebel]

Good news indeed!

Based on averaging all polls, as of today the seat projections are:

Liberals 127

Conservatives 124

NDP 85

Bloc 1

Green 1

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

[pierrelebel]

Now for the bad news.

Canada unemployment rate in September increased to 7.1% (does anyone remember what it was when Harper took power?)

Full time jobs decreased by 62,000 in September offsetting an increase of 74,000 part-time jobs.

It is time to get rid of the Conservatives and get someone who can and will get the job done.

[disisus]

Femme,

Probably worth noting that this nasty wedge was brought up after Harper hired Lyton Crosby, the Australian dirty tricks specialist.

I think this has Stephen Harper written all over it. Back in 1989-90 when Harper was the policy chief for the reform party, they passed a resolution banning sikh turbans in the RCMP.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-niqab-debate-citizenship-turban-rcmp-1.3244817

[art-in-the-making]

In theory Harper needs a majority to survive and he is never going to get it based on his results and platform, never mind all the scandals and illegal and undemocratic activities (which unfortunately don't seem to bother Harper's core supporters in the slightest). Both Trudeau and Mulcair have promised they won't support a Harper gov't under any circumstances. So aside from the nightmare scenario of Duceppe having the balance of power to back a Harper minority, the Conservatives will not be able to form a legitimate government without a majority.

But I have seen some speculation about how long Harper could try to stay in power if he gets a plurality of seats... it may not be a pretty picture. Based on his previous record, I could see Harper pulling any kind of outrageous, dishonorable, unconstitutional or flat out illegal trick to cling to power and drag a lame-duck unsupported minority government out for months, perhaps into another election.

If he gets just a couple more seats than the 2nd place party, I don't think anyone would tolerate much shenanigans - but if he had a sizable lead or anywhere close to a majority, prepare for the worst...

The obvious conclusion is that Canadians need to insure that Harper loses convincingly. I have a strong feeling that will happen Oct. 19.