So how about that Candian dollar?

[craftycatsattic]

I'm camping out trying to decide when to trade in my USD for CDN$. I've been checking the exchange rate and it keeps going down...is now about 17% from PP. I'm still holding out. Think the CDN is going to drop after New Years. Any thoughts?

[hockey_card_corner]

Check the oil/gas price predictions..If they go up, so will the CAD..

[purse_of_the_legionary]

This is strange this week. Gas is going down ($40/barrel now, lost approx $5 since 3 days), but $CAD is going up ($0.84 this Thursday morning, gain 3 cent since 3 days)...

And by the way, I have read two different text in the news talking about the fact that they expect gas at $30/barrel shortly. I wish the $CAD will reach $0.67 like in 2001 (if I remember).

Also, by the way, another good indicator to follow on the net is gold price, sometimes it moves before oil and $CAD, which help to predict what is going to happen. Visit http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Markets are so unstable, it's freaking me out to try to follow what's going on day after day. I'm always wondering if it's the good time to withdraw, of if I should wait another day (or if I should have those funds already withdrawn two days ago!:-().

[hockey_card_corner]

Price of gas at the pumps will go up tomorrow...gee I didn't realize oil was down that low! I don't know about anyone else, but I hate the fact that the dollar has gone down vs US..I buy a lot of stuff in USD and the exchange is killing me.

On the exchange and USD..Why the USD remains strong & all other currrencies go down the tubes is beyond me..Aren't they the ones with the biggest crisis??

Merry Christmas All!

[recped]

The USD "crashed" Wednesday, over the near term I expect this will continue.

I recommend that if you see a upward bump in the value of the US Dollar over the next week it might be your last kick at the can sort of speak.

The primary reason for the disconnect between currencies and oil prices is due to the incredible decline in demand and the predictions for the next 18 - 24 months is bleak. Even this weeks history making production cuts by OPEC did nothing to stall the slide in oil, even more dramatic a slide if you look at it in CA$ or Euro's not to mention the Yen.

I'm always wondering if it's the good time to withdraw, of if I should wait another day (or if I should have those funds already withdrawn two days ago!:().
The long term outlook for the US Dollar is not good at all.

I'm betting we both blew the 2 or 3 best opportunities over the past 6 weeks, I moved some but got greedy hoping for CA$1.30 to the US Dollar. I'm starting to think we may not see 1.25 again never mind 1.30

Like you say the volatility and counter-intuitive movement of the markets has just about everyone scratching their heads.

At least I didn't buy BCE anytime over the past year looking for a quick flip on the "guaranteed sale".

[axe_n_gear_music]

On the upside, if you buy your stock in USD, then you're all set. I have the option of purchasing my stock via Paypal, which works very well. When the exchange rate is up, I trade in my USD for CDN$. When it is down, I focus on buying stock.

AXE

[craftycatsattic]

Well of course this is all speculative. Even the experts are having a hard time forcasting where things are going to go but I'm not so sure we won't see 24% again. I even think the Canadian dollar is going to drop even further. My brother works up in Fort Mac and yesterday he was one of 2500 guys that got laid off as a Christmas bonus. It was a 2+ year project drilling for oil. There will be more to come. It costs Canadian companies around $58 to produce a barrel of oil which is now only valued around $40-44. The effects will be huge all across Canada and I've been told that Alberta is running at a deficit for the first time in a decade.

[hockey_card_corner]

"It costs Canadian companies around $58 to produce a barrel of oil"

I wonder why?? There are guys in Fort mac hiding away all day...more guys going around with a garbage bag making out their busy...Foreman comes in in the morning and lays out job scope..gives workers 2 weeks to finish a job that any hard worker could finish in 2 days..don't get me wrong, not all sites & companies work like this, but from my own experiences no one in alberta is over worked or under paid.

[recped]

I wonder why??

Simple, the Oil Sands are exactly that, oil MIXED with sand, also known as "heavy oil". It takes an enormous amount of energy (mostly natural gas) to extract the oil from the sand. It also requires an incredible amount of water which is why the oil sands create more pollution that just about any other method of producing oil.

This is the reason that while we have known of the great amount of oil available in the Alberta oil sands since the 19th century it's only been recently that it's been viable to extract.

but from my own experiences no one in alberta is over worked or under paid.


Obviously you've never worked in the oil sands or any other oil project, it's dirty, it's hard work and it's dangerous.

[craftycatsattic]

recped...dang....you are so on the money!

Those guys are pulled from their families to go work in a "camp" for 3-6 months, where they do 7 day stints of 12 hours for 3 weeks with one week off....and they never know if they're going to stay or go and where the next work is going to come from. My own brother almost died last year working in an area which the gas detection gear said was safe but yet had the dealiest of gases in it. In the summer there's no work for them because the ground is too soft for the heavy equipment. Yes the money is good...but it will work you hard, it's not steady, and it's dangerous....so be it if a bunch of guys get paid for picking their noses while the think tanks decide how they want to go about doing things.

In any case, the point was, the decline of the oil industry in Alberta is the main reason our dollar is so low. While that's great for us eBayers who sell in USD it's not so great for the Canadian economy. We are a lucky few who benefits....but it's cyclical and will eventually come around to bite us in the behind again.

[hockey_card_corner]

Obviously you've never worked in the oil sands or any other oil project, it's dirty, it's hard work and it's dangerous.

Actually recped I have & it was dirty & dangerous, but we we're not over worked or underpaid..Very few in Alberta are. Sorry if I offended anyone, but there are harder workers out there who are over worked & underpaid..

My point was..If Alberta workers are getting paid very well & their under worked..won't that contribute to the overall cost of producing a barrel of oil?? Maybe it's peanuts compared to the actual process cost..

Merry Christmas!

[hockey_card_corner]

Those guys are pulled from their families to go work in a "camp" for 3-6 months, where they do 7 day stints of 12 hours for 3 weeks with one week off....and they never know if they're going to stay or go and where the next work is going to come from.

The hardest part about any of that is being away from family. They do have a choice & they get paid well for the one they make..I've seen it first hand & I know many who are still out there..They say the hardest thing is the travel home on your week off & the early mornings.

I'm not trying to pick on Alberta workers...It is a dangerous occupation. However, like I said in the beginning....aside from early mornings & being away from family they are under worked & over paid.

Merry Christmas!

[ampurtle]

I expect CAD to edge it's way down over the next 30 days and then tank when the deficit is finally admitted to and the real number comes out.

Same with the USD, but as CAD is pegged to USD, the bottom should be established around March-April 2009.

Your mileage may vary...