Which countries are "safe" to ship to without tracking?

[northern*electric]

I started selling a couple of months ago and I've sold about 50 items--about 80% of which I shipped without tracking. So far, I haven't had any INR claims.

Most of my international buyers are from the US and UK (about 6-14 days; most received their items in 7-8 days). I've also shipped without tracking to Norway and the Netherlands (received in 3 days!).

Recently, I sold one item (it was a $10 tablet cover) to a buyer from Argentina and there were no problems but he received it in 16 days. Normally, I only ship internationally to the US, Australia, Japan and western Europe. I didn't set my blocked list for that listing, which is why the Argentinian buyer was able to buy the item. The transaction overall was very smooth and the buyer didn't mind the wait. He actually seemed surprised the item arrived (somewhat) quickly.

I want to ship to more countries, but I'm not sure which countries are "safe" to ship to without tracking or which countries have unreliable postal service. I did my research and I've gathered that Russia, Brazil, Italy and France have slow customs/unreliable postal service? Any others?

I ship mostly items under $50 internationally without tracking and anything above that I use expedited parcel/tracked packet. I don't buy insurance for items less than $50--I self-insure.

This is my posting ID.

[mr.elmwood]

Depends what you mean by safe. Ultimately nothing is 100%, so, no country is safe. Tracking does not, has never, will never work. Tracking is only required in the event of a dispute. 

Ignore the loss aspect of being in business and all countries are safe.

If you are worried about losing the odd parcel, eBay is not for you. All businesses have shrinkage. Your eBay business, and it is a business, will have shrinkage. Things will sell for less than you want, things will get broken, parcels go missing, buyers will lie.

It is all business. Do not mix up business and personal. If it bothers, concerns, worries you, you are making it personal.

A better question is "risk management". My tolerance for risk is very high. Higher than almost anyone's'. Find your level of risk tolerance and work within that.

I have actively sought out tracking ONCE (1), single, in 8500 transactions.

[femmefan1946]

I agree.

My risk management practices are:

Insuring all my shipments, either through a third party insurer (ours is Hugh Wood International, but that might be too much coverage unless you have a full-time business in collectibles) , postal insurance on some services and self-insurance on low value items.

Using Air Mail for US and overseas shipments. Once you factor in unhappy customers whose items have not arrived within the 45 day Dispute timeframe, it is cheaper than Surface.

Letting my customer know when and how the parcel was shipped.

[northern*electric]

I'd like to think of weeding out countries as a form of risk management. I mean, I'd probably have more INR claims from, say, Russia, than the States.

I'm not afraid of a couple of losses--that's why I ship without tracking--but I don't think I can handle a lot of losses. My margins aren't that high (just enough for profit and maybe 2-3 losses) and I'm doing this to pay for student loans. I'd just like to know which countries people receive the most INR claims from.

[ricarmic · Accepted solution]

Hi! A while ago, I created a thread with my experience self insuring, it might be of interest... hopefully I properly remember how to link these things in...

http://community.ebay.ca/t5/Seller-Central/My-experience-so-far-regarding-self-insuring-more-items/m... 

Note that in my experience Russian delivery has gotten a lot faster which is causing fewer problems......

[tobyshitzu]

I 've shipped lots to russia, never tracking or even proof of shipment and never had a lost item or feedback problem for there or anywhere else in eastern Europe.  On the other hand I occasionally receive someone else's tracked  Amazon packages on the same route who's house is the same # but completely different street/name. 

99% of ebay items sent with no tracking, no proof of shipment, no insurance.  3rd party insurance would have cost over $10,000 extra, tracking far north of $100,000 extra.  The loss rate isnt worth thinking about in comparison.   I blocked S America more so for the buyers being annoying and not needing them then for the slightly higher losses

[recped · Accepted solution]

99% of the packages I ship overseas go without any tracking or delivery confirmation. My loss rate is ridiculously small (in the range of 1 in 1000.

There is an eBay myth that packages with tracking don't get lost, there is an eBay myth that buyers are out there just waiting to buy something that will not have tracking so they can falsely claim INR.

The fact is that some countries have unreliable postal service, even for the worst of these countries most packages do eventually arrive.

Current countries where delivery times can be VERY slow.....

Russia

Brazil

Argentina

Romania

Albania

Shipping to these countries with tracking is no faster or more reliable than shipping without.

There is one difference, if you use a PREMIUM shipping service which generally comes with tracking you usually get faster delivery. Not because of tracking but because you pay more for a premium service.

Of course buyer fraud does happen, some types of goods are more prone to fraud but this has nothing to do with how an item is sent or to what country, there are dishonest people in all parts of the world.

[maggiebvintage2010]

If you like research, here is a link:  http://cdi.mecon.gov.ar/doc/nber/w18268.pdf

If you like improbable research:  http://cdi.mecon.gov.ar/doc/nber/w18268.pdf

If you want opinions, here are mine: I have traveled extensively, and worked in many countries.  In over 25 countries, I have both sent and been sent lettermail and parcels.  I will not send anything by post to Africa, but would utilize a freight forwarder for items of value to most countries there.  Most Europeans living/working in Africa will buy through a European address, and have their own arrangements from there.  I once had an envelope couriered by DHL from the USA to Algeria.  It was eventually hand delivered to me by a postal employee on a bicycle, after it had been incorrectly delivered, open and looked at, by a previous recipient who knew me and directed the mail deliverer to my residence.  Total transit time:  25 days. Lesson:  the courier's responsibility ended upon receipt at the Algiers airport, and the item was put into the mail service.  I have sent over 25 pieces of mail from Panama, none of which were ever received or returned.  Nicaraguan friends use a postal service in Miami and have their mail forwarded by courier from there, then pick it up at the courier office in the capital.  Never send anything by surface, it takes too long and you will have an INR claim to handle.  In many countries, items that are sent by express or courier services from here are handled differently in the destination country.  Registered mail is not treated as such outside of Canada.  If your margins are too low to self-insure, add 25¢ to each item and use this for your insurance fund.  If your risk tolerance is very low, stick to buyers in Canada and the USA. 

[mr.elmwood]

What Maggie says.

[rose-dee]

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@mr.elmwood wrote:

Depends what you mean by safe. Ultimately nothing is 100%, so, no country is safe. Tracking does not, has never, will never work. Tracking is only required in the event of a dispute. 

---

I think what the OP seems to be after is not a guarantee of safety, but some guidelines on managing his risk of loss. And risk is all about probabilities.

We sellers all do this analysis in different ways.  Those with higher turnovers and/or lower average selling prices and/or non-breakables can probably afford not to bother insuring, or at least self-insure on a limited basis.  What's the point of wasting money for an extremely rare and unlikely event? 

On the other hand, if you're selling items of fairly high value in a high risk/fraud category, then you need to evaluate your risks more carefully, select ship-to countries based on probable risk, and use premium shipping services selectively and strategically.  

So I don't think there's an answer across the board that applies to every seller's situation.  I think each seller has to weigh shipping risks specifically in relation to what he/she is selling and, as Mr. E says, based on personal risk tolerance.  As an example, my risk tolerance is pretty high for some types of items I sell, and for those I never use tracking or even insurance, but with other types of items I use a different approach.  

If the OP sells mostly items of less than $50 in value, then self-insuring and being discriminating in what countries he ships to will probably save him from an unacceptable level of risk.  So countries whose postal systems have been reported to be unreliable, or unusually slow, or fraught with corruption -- as in 'recped's' list -- may be worth blocking.  I believe someone recently referred to a Canada Post list of countries that they will not insure -- the countries on that list are probably good ones to avoid. 

It also depends on how many sales you expect to make to countries outside the US and Canada -- is that once-in-a-blue-moon sale to Russia worth the risk to you?  I'm not sure France is as problematic as Russia.  

Personally, for what it's worth, I've restricted my selling to the US, Canada, all western European countries, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, and have never (touch wood!) had a parcel go astray in years of selling.  I used to ship to Russia, but stopped a few months ago after a Small Packet Air item took over 25 days to arrive.  

I disagree with Mr. E's views about tracking never working -- I think it has its place.  I tend to send my more expensive items (ca. $150 and over) via Expedited Air to the US, so I get the tracking anyway.  Since most are fairly lightweight, Expedited isn't a lot more expensive than Small Packet Air.  

What I like about tracking is that I can see the parcel's progress from my end.  I often email my buyer to let them know once their parcel has crossed into the US and that they can expect it shortly -- buyers appreciate that.   Tracking also allows me to confirm once an expensive item is in my buyer's hands, so that even if they don't leave FB, I'm pretty much assured after another few days that the transaction is a done deal.  So, tracking does have its uses for my type of items.  However, I rarely use it outside Canada and the US.

[northern*electric]

Thank you! This was very helpful!

[northern*electric]

Interesting read.

Also, thank you for the advice, but I do self-insure (as mentioned in my 1st post) and my margins are enough to cover about 2-3 losses (as mentioned in my 2nd post).

Again, I am not afraid of losses--I just do not think I can handle a lot of losses. Some countries are more prone to filing INR claims, because of either unreliable postal service and/or very long customs clearances. I just want a list of these countries (thank you recped and ricarmic!). 

I don't understand why some posters are suggesting that my risk tolerance is very low. All I want is to ship to MORE countries without tracking as currently, I've only done so with USA, Canada, countries in Western Europe, Japan, Australia and recently, Argentina (as mentioned in my 1st post). I ship without tracking all the time (I can't stay in business selling low value items otherwise) and so far, as I have already mentioned, I have never received an INR claim.

Anyway, thank you for the advice.

[zee-chan]

I have a different set of shipping rules on my personal website so let's skip that...

As for eBay, I block South America, Russia, Africa, most of Asia... Most of my buyers are from USA (70%), Canada, Germany, Australia, UK, France, and a few other Europeon countries. I do ship to Italy, and for these buyers I send a personal message saying how airmail may still take up to a month due to customs etc, and I never had problem with Italian buyers (I think one of them gave me 4 stars on shipping time but it wasn't a big deal).

So far I shipped 300+ times over the past 4 years with no loss mail (unless the buyer didn't tell me about it), with only 3 buyers who contacted me regarding minor damage (I gave partial refund) so it's all good. I only use Expedited Parcel for USA shipment over 1kg, or if the buyer specifically asked for Tracked Packet USA. Otherwise I always use letterpost/lettermail/light packet/small packet AIR. I used to use small packet SURFACE for USA under 1kg when it was still around (6 days from here to California)... stupid Canada Post discontinued that. =(

Oh, and all 3 damage claims were from USA. Since most of my buyers are from there, I obviously won't stop shipping there =P

[maggiebvintage2010]

I just noticed that I sent the wrong link for improbable research - one of my favourite approaches to scientific research, by the way - laughing while thinking has got to be good for you!  Here is the one I meant to include, followed by a rather whimsical approach to an age-old question, solved by USPS.

http://www.improbable.com/airchives/paperair/volume6/v6i4/postal-6-4.html

http://www.improbable.com/airchives/paperair/volume9/v9i4/chicken_egg.html

[femmefan1946]

Disappointed that I can only put one kudo on this useful post.

[mr.elmwood]

Same here Miss Coronation. I am rethinking a few things. I was always worldwide, but, I am descending into retirement. Some countries are more of a hassle than others. Why ship anywhere on risk when I do not need to do that anymore?

I am re-thinking my business model.