Because this has an extremely high chance of being fraudulent, the first thing I would do before doing anything is report the buyer using this form: https://www.ebay.ca/help/selling/resolving-buyer-issues/report-issue-buyer?id=4084#:~:text=Choose%20....
Yes, there is a 0.000001 chance they did receive an empty box. But the point of reporting them is that if they have multiple reports for similar claims, there is a very small chance that your report will be the one that puts their account over the edge, and their account will be deleted. (Very unlikely).
From there - Ask the buyer to send you pictures of the package and not to dispose of the box or the material. If it was inspected by customs, it should have some sort of information indicating it was inspected.
I would suggest taking a neutral and helpful tone with the buyer. Don't accuse them of scamming you. Tell them that if the package was tampered with, you plan to contact Fedex directly so that you can open a mail theft report. You may also be required to open a Police report for insurance purposes.
Let them know that they may be contacted directly to assist and provide relevant information, but that they should also contact you directly if they have anymore info. Instruct them to ask any neighbours, family members, or roommates if they saw anything.
I would then contact Fedex directly and ask them what their process is for reporting a tampered package. Explain that you sold an expensive+heavy item and the buyer is claiming that the box was delivered empty. You may be able to get weight scans that prove the statue was in the package after it left Fedex. USPS takes mail theft seriously. I am unsure what mechanisms Fedex has. They likely have the ability for you to open up an investigation that they can look into in order to figure out what happened.
At this point, one of two things will happen. If the customer is scamming you, they might get spooked by the prospect of Fedex and the Police getting involved, and you will get a message saying "oh it turned up my husband opened it and didn't tell me!" - or you will get some actionable information from Fedex.
When you get information from Fedex, what you need to do from there is take that information and contact eBay directly. I would use the "AskEbay" Twitter or Facebook page. If Fedex is able to indicate to you that the package was scanned at full weight, that means it is very unlikely that the statue was removed by customs or Fedex. eBay will likely instruct you to provide them with a return label, and to report the buyer. If you have rock solid proof that it was delivered at full weight, eBay MIGHT reimburse you for your refund after you receive the empty return and refund the customer.
You will likely have to ask the customer to return the empty box as it was sent to them, and proceed with the return. The way eBay works is that sellers always need to proceed with returns. The only way you won't have to provide a label and accept a return of an empty box is if through reporting their account, their account gets suspended, which will then cause the return to time out. I have only seen this happen once. It takes a buyer already being on eBay's radar for your report to put them over the edge.
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