Yeah-- that's the golden star.
No tracking- no proof of delivery to be exact-- and you will lose an Item Not Received dispute.
Because tracking is so expensive, it makes a lot of sense for sellers of inexpensive items to use Cookie Jar Insurance.
This just means that on every shipping and handling charge you add a few pennies to cover the occasional loss. Just like a premium to a third party insurer, but you keep those virtual premiums in a virtual Cookie Jar.
When you get a claim, you pay out before PP /eBay gets involved, saving yourself from heartache , stress, violations and defects.
With luck, and an honest but nervous buyer, when the item arrives, you will be refunded by the buyer. Always include a polite note with your refund telling her she can refund the refund when the item arrives by using Paypal's Send Money. Most will, because most people are honest. If a little paranoid and flakey.