eBay

recped · ‎01-25-2005

Anyone have a reaction to today's apparent change in direction for the Canadian Dollar. I'm not talking about the drop over the last week but rather the "sentiment" change brought on by the pending (Friday) "forecast" by Mr. Dodge and the anticipated increase in the US bank rate next week.

I'm glad to finally start hearing that the increase in CA$ value is finally "hurting exports", it took much longer for this talk to start up than I had expected based on past experience. Of course there's so much more fudging and spinning these days that most of the old rules have gone out the window.

So are you a "hold" or "sell" on your inventory of US Dollars?

Ben

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

shoplineca · ‎01-25-2005

Ben, I sell in US dollars. An increase in the Cdn dollar means I am loosing money meaning I will have LESS US dollars to sell!

Its not the stash of cash you have today that you should be worried about, its the diminishing stash you will have tomorrow if the Cdn dollar continues to strengthen unless you sell in Canadian funds mostly to Cdns.

Malcolm

sunward-hobbies · ‎01-26-2005

I don't hold US currency to sell at a later date. generally convert next time I go to the back ( for USD cheques).

It is nice the dollar is weakening, but only time will tell if it goes down.

As long as it stays in a small range. It gets very hard to budget when it moves as much as it has in the last little while.

Angelo

recped · ‎01-26-2005

Malcolm

you've got it backwards, our Dollar is headed down or at least there's a possibility of that trend beginning given intervention on both the Canadian side to lower the value of our dollar and on the US side trying to shore up their weak currency.

I suppose all will be revealed over the next weeks and months.

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

sunward-hobbies · ‎01-26-2005

recped;

The US is not trying to shore up their currency. It is going up and down based on the US economy. This has been a major complaint with the US econominc policy as the high debt and the impression the economy is slowing is dragging the US dollar down.

Another complaint is China pegging its currency to the US dollar.

Angelo

shoplineca · ‎01-26-2005

Our dollar was up yesterday over Monday and I guess I misunderstood what you said in your statement "I'm glad to finally start hearing that the increase in CA$ value is finally ..."

The next week will be very interesting as Bush is under severe pressure from the Republicans over his domestic economic policies and their lack of faith in his ability to make a change.

Interesting these things werent voiced during the elections and now that he is in a 2nd term, his own party doesnt have confidence in him.

What a farce!

Malcolm

shooger · ‎01-26-2005

XE.com is willing to give me $1218 Canadian for my grand US at this moment. That's about what it was a month ago when I did my last exchange. While it sucks royally, I'm just glad it hasn't continued to get worse and worse, as it has been the last 6-8 months.

javax.swing · ‎01-26-2005

$1216.90 from RBC. Seems they're close those two in terms of commission rates.

nan*55 · ‎01-27-2005

CD down again this morning:)

tpman99 · ‎01-28-2005

was looking at TD and they offering me 1231 CAD for 1k USD

shoplineca · ‎01-28-2005

Okay, you can post rates all day long and they will differ for a number of reasons including: (a) whether you are buying or selling (b) how much you are negotiating and (c) preferential services with your bank.

There are different rates for exchanging $100 or $1,000 or $10,000 in most banks.

As well, many banks offer a US service which gives preferential exchange rates for either paying a monthly fee or maintaining a specific balance.

So unless you are comparing apples to apples, there will always be variances in the rates people post here.

Malcolm

recped · ‎01-28-2005

Malcolm

For clarity we should stick to something like the Bank Of Canada Noon Rate....

Today's rate was 1.2421, best rate since October 21st

Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Ben

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

shoplineca · ‎01-28-2005

Good idea Ben. At least that way if reflects true trend and not fluctuations due to bank transactions based on other factors.

Malcolm

recped · ‎01-31-2005

Monday January 31st

Bank of Canada Noon Rate - 1.238

Looks like a broad (but modest) weakening of the US Dollar today not sure what the reason was although it might simply be proift taking by the speculators.

Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, forecasts call for a .25% bump in the Fed Funds Rate, don't think this will have much impact as it is widely expected. More important will be Greenspan's take on future direction.

The falling US Dollar may finally be having some inflationary effect which should lead to higher interest rates over the mid-term.

Ben

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

recped · ‎01-31-2005

Yup looks like early day profit taking....turned around at the end of the day to close at....

1.2412

Right back where it was at Noon on Friday.

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

sunward-hobbies · ‎01-31-2005

It is tempting to look at the rate daily ( I do, even have it bookmarked ) but it is hard to predict the future.

As an example, I asked one person in the exchange business and he won't give me a direction, or even range. No one knows.

It is important as the rate went past 1.24, as that was the resistance level for a while.

Wait and see.

systemagic · ‎02-03-2005

I spoke to my financial planning collegue about this today. He's says that, like the stock market, no one can predict the short-term outlook of the dollar with any consistancy. Long-term, however, one can make reasonable educated guesses based on the fundamentals. He believes that, within the next 2-to-3 years, the Canadian dollar will approach parity with the US dollar. The US dollar, he says, has been, and will continue to be, crushed. Apparently both Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have recently shorted the US dollar.

Unfortunately another increase of 20% over the next few years, compounded by the gluttonous fee trends of eBay and Canada Post, projects a disasterous picture for those of us with our primary marketplace based in the US.

My current thinking is that the only remaining viable eBay market may, in future, be found exclusively during the Christmas season. I just have to figure out what to do with my talented self the rest of the time.

(Incidentally my collegue also indicated that a rather sizable bubble in North America's real estate market may now be beginning to burst.)

systemagic · ‎02-03-2005

I probably misrepresented my collegue's words in atating that B.G. and W.B. "shorted" the US dollar. Shorting is a decidedly short-term gambit. More likely they've found an alternative currency in which to put their cash holdings.

recped · ‎02-03-2005

I'm not much of a fan of either GB or BG....

BG I think is putting his "spare change" into vaccines and things.

GB is probably putting his cash into WMD's (Gonna need 'em when he makes his move on Iran).

Your right about the great difficulty in predicting short term currency movements. Normally I wouldn't advise investing in currencies but since many of us sell in US Dollars we are in fact "investing" in the forex market every day. It's also a little bit of fun to see how badly ones predictions can be.

Ben

P.S. Today's Noon Rate 1.2428, best exchange since Oct.20th. I wonder how Friday's employment numbers will effect things?

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

sunward-hobbies · ‎02-03-2005

It is one thing for the dollar to move from current levels to parity in 2-3 years. But the exchange has gone from about 1.30 to 1.18 to 1.24 in about 4 months. Which is too short a time frame.

Another area that bothers me is companies not passing on the savings to the buyer/consumer. Everyone was quick to raise prices, but they don't come down as fast.

Eventually, even Canada Post will have to lower prices or US service.

Angelo