OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau continues to generate a disproportionate amount of excitement and media attention more than six months after winning the federal Liberal leadership. But can it be sustained, and will it translate into electoral success?
The next few months will see byelections in Toronto and Montreal to replace Liberal MPs Bob Rae and Denis Coderre, respectively. The Liberals need huge victories in both to maintain their momentum and prove they are for real.
Liberals are also hoping for strong showings in the Manitoba ridings of Brandon-Souris and Provencher, both previously held by Conservatives, to prove Trudeau’s message is resonating with non-Liberals.
Here’s what you need to know about Trudeau, his party and its plan for the fall:
The Leader:
The eldest son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau acknowledges he was born into privileged circumstances. He says his entrance into politics after stints as a teacher and public speaker was fuelled by a desire to give back to Canadians.
Trudeau proudly notes he wasn’t given a free ride to Parliament but fought hard to win the Montreal riding of Papineau in 2008.
He has simultaneously embraced his father’s legacy on such issues as federalism and human rights, and sought to distance himself from his father’s economic policies.
While touting a more open, inclusive and positive style of politics, Trudeau has found himself in hot water several times when speaking off-the-cuff, prompting questions over whether he is all style and no substance.
He was elected federal Liberal leader in April 2013.
Fall Focus:
Liberals are between rebuilding- and election-mode.
The byelections in Toronto, Montreal and Manitoba are taking a great deal of the party’s attention and energy. Trudeau has brought his star power to all three areas, and will do so until voters go to the polls.
Even after the byelections, Trudeau will spend as little time in Parliament as he hits the road to raise money and build a network of volunteers and candidates across the country for the next election campaign.
The Liberals will continue trying to brand themselves defenders of the middle-class; champions of a new style of politics; and the only choice for a Canada that includes Quebec.
Policies announced will be narrowly focused and targeted to play to the party’s strengths or shore up weaknesses. Detailed plans, including how the Liberals will stand up for the middle-class, won’t be revealed until next year at the earliest.
Strategy:
Byelections aside, it’s the long game for Trudeau and Company.
That means raising money and recruiting people, both of which are the focus as Trudeau attends events and meets Canadians across the country over the next few months.
While the Conservatives and NDP both plan to target Trudeau, the Liberal leader will try to turn their attacks around by accusing them of continuing to engage in “divisive, cynical politics,” and offering Canadians better.
With the Conservatives having all but given up on the province, and the NDP forced to appease soft-nationalists who supported it in 2011, the Liberals see an opening in Quebec and will try to present themselves as the only real federalist option.
Strengths:
Trudeau generates excitement and makes headlines wherever he goes, which has created momentum and energy.
The party has also seen an injection of new blood at the top, with Trudeau having a young team around him that bears little resemblance to the old guard that long-held sway.
And Liberals appear united under one banner for the first time in recent memory. They also still have experienced, respected figures in caucus, and a brand that endures despite a decade of decline.
Stars:
Finance critic Scott Brison brings financial expertise and credibility. He and Chrystia Freeland are co-chairing an economic advisory panel aimed at building the party’s economic platform in advance of the election.
A journalist and author, Freeland is the Liberal candidate in Toronto-Centre and seen as the first “star” candidate to join the Liberals since Trudeau’s leadership victory in April.
Former astronaut Marc Garneau continues to enjoy national respect and provides valuable name recognition.
Garneau is co-chairing a Liberal advisory panel on foreign affairs and defence with retired lieutenant-general Andrew Leslie, who created a plan two years ago on how the federal government could save billions in defence spending without undermining the Canadian Forces. The government shelved the report, something Leslie didn’t appreciate.
Former Newfoundland and Labrador minister Yvonne Jones is also someone to watch after defeating former Conservative minister Peter Penashue in a byelection in Labrador in May.
Achilles Heel:
Trudeau’s perceived lack of experience is his biggest weakness. Questions persist about his judgment, as well as his ability to match up against Stephen Harper and Tom Mulcair. His name remains divisive.
The Liberals’ historic and ongoing reliance on Quebec for political success is also a problem as it must appeal to la belle province without selling out the rest of the country.
And the Liberal caucus is getting older, with some members arguably past their best before dates.
Cliché:
“This is about offering Canadians in 2015 not just a different government, but a better government.”
Number of Seats:
34 MPs; 33 Senators
Defining Quote:
“(Canadians) are giving us a chance, hopeful that the party of Wilfrid Laurier can rediscover its sunny ways. Hopeful that positive politics has a fighting chance against the steady barrage of negativity that you and I both know is coming soon to TV screens across Canada.”
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