October 19 Election Predictions

Majority Liberal 172 seats

 

Do not be shy.  Come along.  Play the prediction game! (preferably before the results are known!)

Message 1 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

While it was nice to see that the young vote had increased fairly substantially from the last election, I wonder how many of those voters understood the philosophy of each party.  The reason I say that is because I've seen a number of articles today about the role that social media played, particularly Instagram.  A lot of young people were posting selfies of themselves at the voting booth and were encouraging others to do the same thing.  So it became a "thing to do".

 

And let's face it, Justin T. is a good looking man.  Even on TMZ tonight, a couple of the girls were saying -- did you see the hot guy that was elected Prime Minister of Canada?  I'm not putting down young voters .... just the ones who considered it a social event or were happy that marijuana would be legalized.  I'm just as discouraged with people who, because they didn't like Steven Harper, did a 180 and abandoned the philosophy of the Conservative Party entirely and embraced a totally different one.  That's too fickle for my liking.

 

 

Message 21 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

Pollsters are celebrating the uncanny accuracy of some of their predictions ahead of this week’s federal election, which represented a much-needed credibility boost for an industry that is still recovering from high-profile miscalls in recent provincial campaigns.

Nanos Research, which did nightly tracking for The Globe and Mail and CTV News, was remarkably on target throughout the campaign, recording the nuanced shifts as the Liberals moved from third to pull ahead of the NDP and Conservatives.

“There’s right and almost right and perfect,” said Nik Nanos, who thinks his company’s results couldn’t have been much closer to the mark.

 

The final Nanos poll pegged the Liberal vote at 39.1 per cent; Elections Canada recorded it as 39.5 per cent. The Conservatives were polled at 30.5 per cent and the final result was 31.9 per cent. The Nanos poll had the NDP at 19.7 per cent, which is exactly what the NDP got according to Elections Canada results.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pollsters-celebrate-making-accurate-election-prediction...

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Unless each day can be looked back upon by an individual
as one in which he has had some fun, some joy, some
real satisfaction, that day is a loss.
Message 22 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

The one who really got it right was Quitto Maggi from Mainstreet pollsters who called Liberal majority last week and then repeated his prediction even after one of Trudeau's campaign team had to resign after getting into a trouble over supposed lobbying activities.

 

I had a feeling he was on to something but couldn't get myself to quite believe it. Living in Quebec you get used to the way people jump on trends and fashions. If one person in the neighbourhood installs a new black front door, pretty soon everyone's doing it. So Maggi must have gotten info that Trudeau was starting to connect with the average francophone voter. And it happened. Not only in Quebec but all across the country.

 

The trouble with Conservativism these days jt-libra, just my opinion, is the influence of the US extremists like Fox News and the Tea Party. I think these ideas are presented on the US media that penetrates into Canada in a way that appeals to a certain group and gets them looped up and then these people in turn get vocal and in our faces on social media... But I don't think that this brand of conservativism is at all appropriate for Canada. So it's the combination of this crazy tea party-ism, combined with Harper's mean-spirited, hyper-controlling, paranoid style, that just leaves a lot of people with nowhere to go in Conservatism.

 

Already today some of the comments coming from Conservatives are sounding more positive. Interesting years ahead!

Message 23 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions


@art-in-the-making wrote:

 

 

The trouble with Conservativism these days jt-libra, just my opinion, is the influence of the US extremists like Fox News and the Tea Party. I think these ideas are presented on the US media that penetrates into Canada in a way that appeals to a certain group and gets them looped up and then these people in turn get vocal and in our faces on social media... But I don't think that this brand of conservativism is at all appropriate for Canada. So it's the combination of this crazy tea party-ism, combined with Harper's mean-spirited, hyper-controlling, paranoid style, that just leaves a lot of people with nowhere to go in Conservatism.

 

Already today some of the comments coming from Conservatives are sounding more positive. Interesting years ahead!


Interesting years ahead .... that's for sure!

 

I agree with you about the influence of Fox News.  I have a friend in Alberta who watches Fox News all day long.  He's a right-wing extremist who would be happy talking politics 24-7.  I am a moderate who identifies with the Conservative Party but I can't even watch Fox News, I find it so disturbing.  Anyway, I speak to him about once a week and, to hear him talk, the upcoming U.S. election and our election and our respective issues might as well have been one and the same.  I have to keep reminding him that our Conservative Party is not the Republican Party, no matter how much he wishes it was so.

 

Our economy does not concern me as much as current world events do ..... hundreds of thousands of refugees looking for a home, Putin bombing the hell out of Syria to help his buddy Bashar al-Assad, Israel in a very precarious situation.  I just felt more comfortable with Harper at the helm than an inexperienced, touchy-feely Trudeau.  I didn't even mind Harper's abrupt manner or his arrogance.  I don't care if our P.M. is charismatic.  I want someone who can look Putin in the face and tell him to get the hell out of Ukraine, as Harper did.  I picture world leaders snickering about this kid that's now leading Canada.  But, hopefully, he will grow into his job. 

Message 24 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

" young vote ......, I wonder how many of those voters understood the philosophy of each party. "

 

Elections Canada made great efforts to see that our seniors voted.  They visited seniors home where most are in their 80's and 90's. When asked about their experience, oh well, few remembered it let alone understand what they actually did.

 

Should there be a competency test for all voters, young, old and everyone in between?

 

Average IQ is 100.  Should we limit voting rights to those above 100?  Would it make a difference?

Message 25 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

good comment Pierre. You're right people of all ages and political bent may be exploited in some way or another - but they are entitled to vote. As Prime Minister Trudeau said, "a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian".

 

Another group of people often overlooked in relation to voting is the mentally handicapped. These people are entitled to vote but are in many cases simply incapable of handling the physical requirements of voting, let alone go through the weighty considerations that some Canadians go through before voting.

 

My son voted for the first time Monday, with me standing beside him in the voting booth, helping him hold the pencil and mark the X in the spot we felt would serve his best interest.

 

He put the folded ballot in the box, high-fived the Elections Canada staff person and seemed right in tune with the palpable tone of mild euphoria that I presume filled the entire room all day, as Canadians sent Harper packing.

 

In a moment of reflection, I realized that my son's niqab is his to wear for his entire life.

Message 26 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

"I want someone who can look Putin in the face and tell him to get the hell out of Ukraine, as Harper did".

 

Anyone can do that and most people like Harper know they have no real power and it's all show. Even Putin knows that and he looks down at Harper and probably said "nice puppy but no bite and not much of a bark". The idea is to reverse Putin's thinking and some meaningless bravado comment by Harper isn't going to accomplish anything because Putin has dealt with that all his life and from far more powerful people.





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Message 27 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

So how bad was the election?

 

In some ways it was a disaster. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have 184 seats in Parliament — a strong majority. He has the media in the palm of his hand. Our courts are stuffed with liberal judges, and opinion leaders in universities and NGOs are in love with him.

On the other hand, Trudeau only received 39.5% of the vote — and only because the NDP vote collapsed in the last week. Despite total name recognition, a fawning media and advisors flown in from Barack Obama’s campaign team, he couldn’t crack 40%. And the Conservatives — despite the voter fatigue of having been in office for nearly ten years — still got 32% of the vote. The triumphalism at the CBC hides the fact that their Trudeaumania isn’t universal.

But a majority in Parliament is still a powerful thing. And Trudeau’s plans for taxing and spending are on top of Kathleen Wynne’s plans in Ontario and Rachel Notley’s in Alberta. Canadian taxpayers are in for some tough times.

 

The Rebel

Message 28 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

guage, you are entitled to your opinion.

 

When you say "a fawning media" though, I find that conclusion to be completely detached from reality.

 

The mainstream media in Canada is solidly far to the right of centre.

 

The fact is that +/- 28/31 major newspapers papers backed the Conservatives the past three elections and in this election almost as bad, although the Liberals picked up at least a couple of key endorsements.

 

Postmedia, owner of most of the large dailies in the country, went 100% behind Harper. Don't forget that the media owners' acknowledged bias goes far beyond one editorial - it touches every particle of the organization. From deciding which editors and reporters to hire, news and story selection, setting the tone of the writing and so forth.

 

Our large broadcasters put on an objective face, but don't you find it curious that so many of our newscasts are full of references to "terrorism, suicide bombers, ISIS, security, radicalization, blah blah blah... etc. etc..." as if all this danger is right in our back yard, when in fact, a Canadian is 1000 times (if not a million) more likely to be killed in a snowmobile accident than by a terrorist.

 

I noticed during the 2011 election campaign that each time CTV reported an NDP or Liberal argument, it was immediately followed by the Conservative counter-argument. The opposition parties did not enjoy this courtesy.

 

To be honest, for the media in this country to be truly balanced, we would need a couple more CBCs, plus a national chain of publicly funded print and online media to offer a centrist perspective.

 

Then, in order to balance out the extremism from the ezra Levants and Fox News of the world that penetrates into Canada, there would need to be a glitzy Hollywood style extravaganza featuring a range of ranting and raving communists and anarchists running 24/7 across the country. 

 

Of the alternative media out there online now, such as the Tyee, the Walrus, Rabble and others, some of them are more left of centre or at least objective but I find only the Ricochet (Canadian) to be blatantly partisan (NDP).

 

So, guage, you can say what you want about "fawning media". The fact is that if there were an objective, or at least balanced, media in this country, Stephen Harper would have never been elected prime minister.

 

 

Message 29 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

I trust the Libs will do a no holds barred screening of the 25000 migrants planned for this country.

 

Snopes doesn’t deny or support the truth in -  A Female Physician in Munich, Germany sends a message to the World.

On the fence I guess.

 

 http://www.snopes.com/female-physician-munich/

 

 


 

Message 30 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

The election is over.

 

Your Reform party lost. Get used it.  Move along.

 

The "fear" tactics used by the Conservatives for the last nine years are no longer welcome in this country. Let's stop that nonsense as it no longer works.

 

Take a look at the sunny side of the street.  The sun is much brighter there.

Message 31 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

A year and half ago you wrote: "Like it or not it's been proven attack ads work....  The truth about attack ads: They work"

 

That may have been true at that time.  The recent election proved very clearly that Canadians are much smarter than that.  The never ending "attack ads" by the Conservatives resulted in a Liberal majority government.

Message 32 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions


@pierrelebel wrote:

The election is over.

 

Your Reform party lost. Get used it.  Move along.

 

The "fear" tactics used by the Conservatives for the last nine years are no longer welcome in this country. Let's stop that nonsense as it no longer works.

 

Take a look at the sunny side of the street.  The sun is much brighter there.


You may view yourself as the elder statesman of eBay message boards, but you don't get to shut down the voices of those who disagree with you.

 

So far on this Board, there have been many views expressed, some which you and I and others agree with and those with which we disagree, e.g.

 

To be honest, for the media in this country to be truly balanced, we would need a couple more CBCs .......

 

This is one of the most frightening sentences I have ever read but the poster had a right to say it.

Message 33 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

"voices of those who disagree with you."

 

It has nothing to do with agreeing or not with my moderate views.

 

It is just the same old, same old fear message from the extreme right who still thinks negative advertising works.

Message 34 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

You hate the colour orange then you must be happy Pat Martin is gone. A foul mouth he is who got kicked out of committee for just that not to mention his obnoxious ways.

Message 35 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

Harper's followers have always been bravado on the internet at best. Canadians are not stupid and they are tired of being used by politicians and big business or as Eisenhower labelled them > 'the military industrial complex'. Unfortunately no one listened to him and here we are. Harper's days are done, he's finished and soon to be looking for a new home. I mean look at him.....as soon as things got tough.....he bailed. Not much different than an man he admired called Mike Harris. Harper's fear mongering and bigotry belonged in the dark ages. No longer will Canada be the patsy for other countries to use because of our weak leader looking for attention and approval.

What was Harper? In reality he was a nothing, except an opportunist. From the mail room at Imperial oil (a job his father got for him) to getting a degree in economics (paid for by Imperial) but never actually practicing in the field to gain any experience. All Harper did was jump from one political party and far right winged organizations to set himself up in order to enjoy his narcissist requirements. He was even a Liberal at one time.....whatever worked to get him ahead.....he used. He had no qualifications except riding on the coattails of other leaders while he waited for the an opportunity he did not really deserve and it came with a mistake by the Liberals. Had they not make that error years ago, Stevie would be back in the mail room where he belonged.   





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Message 36 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions


@gauge33 wrote:

You hate the colour orange then you must be happy Pat Martin is gone. A foul mouth he is who got kicked out of committee for just that not to mention his obnoxious ways.


I'll be happy when they're all gone!

Message 37 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

There is going to be an awful mess for Kenney to start cleaning up in 2019

Message 38 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

This election was  a referendum on Stephen Harper. The Liberals won  because the Conservatives HAD to go.

 

I'm pleased with the results.

 

Especially hoping for some movement on the issue of a terminal patient's right to assisted suicide.  

 

Justin Trudeau has come out in support of this based on seeing his father suffer in his last few days. I clearly recall the Sue Rodriguez case when I first came to Canada and what that poor lady had to fight for to get a decent death on her own terms ..... just can't understand why we still don't have any legislation in place re this issue. And Harper seemed to be very much dragging this out, despite the ruling from the Supreme Court.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Message 39 of 61
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Re: October 19 Election Predictions

"Kenney ... in 2019"

 

Do you want Kenney to take over?  Do you think the Conservative Party will be better served by Kenney who was, and still is,  so closely related to Harper? 

 

Don't you think the Conservatives would have a brighter future if they move away - ever so slightly - from the Western Reform Party towards the more centrist Progressive Conservative Party?

 

How about Peter McKay, or Brad Wall (even though he comes from Saskatchewan) or Lisa Raitt from Ontario?

Message 40 of 61
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