The Loonie vs the Greenback

treasure-pot
Community Member
Well the Loonie's brief foray onto the wild side appears to have been short lived. According to XE.com (at the time I'm writing this) the Greenback is now trading at 1.00096 against the Cdn. dollar.

Of course, it might be a while before we actually realize a par dollar (because of the actual exchange profits the bank or PayPal make) but it is kinda symbolic and a positive in what is otherwise a somewhat sluggish holiday selling season. The higher Loonie certainly has had an impact on my US sales this season while my domestic sales have risen.


Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of



Bill


Message 1 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

US Sales are down some for me, but orders are coming in from all over the globe because the US $ has declined in relation to most currencies.
Message 2 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

My US sales have dropped, but my Canadian Sales are jumped up like higher then my US sales used to be, so Im happy 🙂
Thanks.

Sukh
(IComic.ca)

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Message 3 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

The very steep dive the USD took was caused by some surplus cash being dissolved by people who were getting rid of the currency. USD has not been backed-up by commodity since Nixon and it is simply refilled by reprinting. Because USD is a global trade reserve currency, it has different rules and mechanics than other national currencies.

There are trends to stop using USD as global reserve currency but many national banks hold their cash reserves in USD. Just national bank of China holds approx 1.3 trillion USD:

http://portalapp.tdctrade.com/airnewse/index.asp?id=31692

Until the banks get rid of the USD cash reserves, they do not like it to become toalet paper just yet. We will see spikes as some major USD holder will throw their reserves onto the market. Also OPEC is talking for some time about switching to other currency:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/MarketTalk/wireStory?id=3885039

Because US is such a huge market and big consumer, the exporters like China and Japan are going to continue keeping their own currencies devaluated so they can still sell on US market. Nonetheless, USD will slowly become a national currency and the privileges it has beeen enjoying as a reserve currency will be gone. US government will no longer be able to generate wealth by simply "printing money".
Message 4 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

treasure-pot
Community Member
OPEC is not talking about changing to another currency - only members Iran and Venezuela are promoting this idea - largely because they don't depend on US sales and because they have an axe to grind. The balance of OPEC members rely heavily on sales to the USA and so have little support for the notion.


Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of



Bill


Message 5 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

OPEC has been questioning their use of USD as payment currency for quite few years since USD started dropping regardless what Chavez and Ahmadinejad said two weeks ago

Great purchasing power of USA comes from the willingness of other nations to work cheaply just to get to US 300M market. Population of EU is 500M. Populations of China is 1200M, India following, while their purchasing power has been raising and their currencies are backed by real commodities.

Strenght of a real currency is in the export. Canada exports a lot. USA exports USD and imports pretty much everything else. I would not get too excited about buck climbing over loonie, when the wheat and maple season come, CAD will go back up 😉
Message 6 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

katiusciav
Community Member
well those three posts just flew right over me head!!
Kat
Message 7 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

Kat, all it meant was that we should not get too excited.

In fact the effect Bill is so excited about is caused more by loonie dropping and not by buck gaining.
Message 8 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

Kind of sucks because I am just about to wire C$10k to my homeland. Should have done it 3 weeks ago and get approx 700 euros more.
Message 9 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

treasure-pot
Community Member
Excited?? I think I used the word "positive". I'll get excited if the Loonie drops to seventy-five cents again. lol


Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of



Bill


Message 10 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

That would at least justify the eBay Canada fees again.

Btw. you should be happy when your country prospers. Because you get few bucks more on eBay are you willing to let your RRSP and savings devaluate and decrease your purchasing power by 30% ?
Message 11 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

whoscloset
Community Member
and decrease your purchasing power by 30%

When I actually start seeing any of these gains...then I'll be happy. Sadly prices haven't dropped like they should have. In fact car dealerships in the U.S. have been told NOT to sell to Canadians and prices haven't dropped to match the U.S. here. So much for a higher dollar.

Monique

Message 12 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

treasure-pot
Community Member
Because you get few bucks more on eBay are you willing to let your RRSP and savings devaluate and decrease your purchasing power by 30%

Huh?

Sorry... all inaccurate. I appreciate your concern but I assure you my portfolio did not depreciate (and certainly not by 30%) while the Loonie floundered at $.66 vs the USD. In fact, ask any manufacturer that exports and they will likely tell you that a strong USD is very good for business and prosperity. Why do you think manufacturers have been cryin the blues in recent months? Why is the forest product sector closing plants if not for the high Loonie in relation to it's US counterpart.

Face it - we live in a country that depends heavily on our ability to compete in world markets. We are more competitive when the US dollar is stronger than the Loonie. The fact that Canadian sellers on eBay also find it good for their businesses speaks volumes.


Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of



Bill


Message 13 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

The prices did not drop significantly - true. Why is that? Because it takes time. Stores are full of stuff with "book value" from times when buck was strong. The loonie has not been up for long.

Secondly, is anyone willing to get a paycut because loonie is now stronger? No! So services cannot get cheaper and they won't. Haircut does not get cheaper, meal preparation, transportation, any labour in the stores. But import gets cheaper. Cannot you buy nicer vacation now? Cannot you buy cheaper books from Amazon?

Face it - we live in a country that depends heavily on our ability to compete in world markets.

Exactly, world markets. Not US market. The fact that it's very convenient for Canada export to US
Message 14 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

treasure-pot
Community Member
A world market that uses the USD as it's primary currency. Convenience has little to do with it except for the Americans. The USA is a nation that imports raw materials and we are a country that ships (primarily) raw materials. We are close at hand and they have been happy to take everything we offer because of that convenience and because we built our economy on supplying US factories.

What will continue to hurt Canada is the reduced demand in the USA for Canadian raw materials because their manufacturing jobs are being sent to the third world and emerging economies. Fewer plants require less raw materials. Canada has been working on shifting it's economy from raw material suppliers to finished goods for years but our manufacturing sector is still not as efficient as it needs to be to capture a significant portion of the US market unless we have the advantage of a weak Loonie in relation to the Greenback.

But import gets cheaper

Yes they do - larger because the USD is a world trading currency and not because the products are necessarily manufactured in the USA. As the USD has lost ground against the CAD, exporters from around the world now can offer their products more cheaply to Canada.


Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of



Bill


Message 15 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

Canada's GDP is $1.2 trillion. export is 400 billion out of which 82% goes to USA, import is 350 billion. So only 82% of 33% of GDP depends on export to USA.

EU provides identical GDP size as USA (13 trillion) and stable currency growing in value that is backed up by market and not by capacity to print notes.

Quote from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_currency

As of December 2006, the euro surpassed the dollar in the combined value of cash in circulation

Now look at this one:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/wallenwein072603.html

Interesting doom scenario with interesting solution. Both are bad for USD dependent Canada.

USD free fall was posponed by few years when invaded Iraq (second largest oil producer) after Iraq made fortune by switching to Petro-Euros. They have no money for yet another war and they cannot keep invading countries when they decide to abandon USD.

Simply said ... USD is dying as a world currency.
Message 16 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

whoscloset
Community Member
only 82% of 33% of GDP depends on export to USA

ONLY? Are you kidding me?

Do you mind if I ask where your business degree is from? Seriously, I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I'm actually curious.

Monique

Message 17 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

whoscloset
Community Member
The very steep dive the USD took was caused by some surplus cash being dissolved by people who were getting rid of the currency.

No...actually it has much more to do with certain other factors:

* excess out-sourcing of labor by major corporations
* excess spending (~ $91,000.00 PER PERSON PER YEAR) on a totally insane military offensive in Iraq
* resulting instability in the price of oil dramatically impacting the cost of domestic production
* a refusal to adjust interest rates in order to support a weakened U.S. dollar
* the amazing rise in cheap production and export of products from China (whose government is obviously MUCH smarter than those dweebs to the south)
* and...the refusal of the U.S. media to acknowledge all of the above and wake people the hell up down there

The truth of the matter is that not many of the people and/or nations that hold a lot of U.S. currency reserves have let them go as of yet. Why? George W quietly sent out envoys LAST YEAR warning certain nations (such as China) that if they did not prop up the U.S. dollar they would risk bans on imports into the U.S. thereby losing a very lucrative market.

Yes, the are all trying to ride the dying U.S. economy as long as they can, but eventually it just isn't going to work anymore. The U.S. dollar is now on the verge of collapse and I personally believe the crash will be worse than than any seen in recent history.

The sky is falling for heaven's sake! LOL

Monique

Message 18 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

Do you mind if I ask where your business degree is from?

Sorry, I don't have it .. only engineering one. Degrees are overrated ... 😉

The U.S. dollar is now on the verge of collapse

There is a this suggestion with reinventing internal markets in USA. Which is bad news for Canadian exporters anyway.

Time to look for new markets. Or reinvent Canadian internal market and forget about currencies.
Message 19 of 27
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The Loonie vs the Greenback

bestshowtime
Community Member
Bill
treasure-pot

Co-Author of DUMMIES

PLEASE, STOP ADVERTISINNG YOU BOOK ON POWERSELLER BOARD!!!
IT IS ABUSE ME!!!!!!!!
Message 20 of 27
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