I've given about 300 negative feedbacks and received about 10 retaliations.
I've filed about 500 "Unpaid Item Disputes" and never received a retalitation feedback because of them. Mostly they just cause the buyer to pay.
I've filed about 300 strikes when buyers never paid, and not received any retaliations because of them that I know of. Mostly it's just from the negative feedback.
That said, the best way to do it is leave negative feedback and then within minutes file the strike to get your fees back. Ebay recently changed to a new policy where the buyer's account is closed the very second they receive the third strike. Therefore, leave your negative and then file the strike immediately. If this is their third, they will be shut down, and won't even be able to resond to your negative.
The reason I say to leave a negative first is because after they're shut down, you can't leave a negative. If they end up not being shut down, your negative serves to warn others. Also, eBay closes some accounts manually when they see negative feedbacks, even if the buyer only has 1 or 2 strikes against them.