07-17-2015 08:40 AM - edited 07-17-2015 08:41 AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cadusd=x
I would guess we are nearing a near term bottom for the Canadian dollar.
However, it could go lower, much lower, if and when the pre-election polls show the NDP with a real chance to form the next federal government.
07-17-2015 08:48 AM
$1.299 Canadian = $1.00 US
Unexpected , and how far will it go?
Wondering??
When do I make another adjustment in my prices ... what I sell, and shipping cost
07-17-2015 09:16 AM
Canada needs to go back to a more realistic evaluation of its dollar, in my view. The inflated effect of all that oil puffing up the $Cdn did not do any favours for the overall, longer term economic stability of this country. And I think Mr. Harper has been riding high on that oil boom, forgetting that historically there is always a "bust" on the horizon.
I wouldn't mind seeing it go a little lower still. A ca. $0.75 dollar will greatly help to boost Canada's export, manufacturing, and tourist industries, which will mean that Ontario and many other provinces will get back on its feet once again.
Here in Nova Scotia the tourist industry, which used to be a traditional mainstay for the economy, has suffered a great deal from the high Canadian dollar. It would be a welcome thing to see U.S. tourists return, as their dollars provide a lot of local jobs in tourism and the hospitality industry. A 25% discount on everything will hopefully encourage them to come back.
As for selling on eBay, as the dollar goes lower I feel it permits Canadian sellers whose main market is in the U.S. more options to appeal to U.S. customers. For example, if the Canadian dollar remains below $0.80 US, I plan to leave all my (2014) shipping rates as they are into the next year, as well as my item prices. No need to lower prices: as time goes on, the relative buying power for U.S. customers will make the older pricing look good in comparison to my U.S. competitors' prices. And that additional 25% premium on every dollar will provide some badly needed relief on the expense side, as well as permitting me to run more frequently discount sales.
As for the polls regarding the NDP, well the sky didn't fall when they won in Alberta, and we all woke up the next day. As you say, life does go on.
07-17-2015 01:00 PM
Our shop on Ottawa's Sparks Street Mall, one block from Parliament Hill, was not particularly a tourist destination, but it was for many years noticeable how much American change showed up in the cash register during tourist season. Often $10-$15 a day.
Then the loonie rose.
And then the US government started demanding that their citizens carry a passport when they left the country.
Thud. The change dropped to $1 or less daily.
Here in Victoria the cruise ships have started arriving, and I am getting the odd nickel or quarter in my change. So a comeback? I haven't had enough time to know.
Buying books for $0.75USD instead of $1.10USD ( for sale at $9.99 USD including postage) is nice to be able to do again.
But inflation! When I started in 2001 I was paying 25-50 cents for paperbacks and selling for $5.99 USD+$1.99 USD .
07-17-2015 03:21 PM
As for the polls regarding the NDP, well the sky didn't fall when they won in Alberta, and we all woke up the next day.
Waking up the next day and having a healthy economy for the next 4 years are two different things. No one knows for sure how things are going to go but there seems to be more skeptics than optimists around here right now.
As far as it being good for the dollar to go down even more.... buying items in Canadian dollars and selling them in U.S. dollars can be a benefit but it's also possible that those items I'm buying in Canada for my business and for personal use are going to go up as the Cdn dollar goes down. I'm certainly not an economist but I don't see a low dollar as being good for everyone.
07-17-2015 03:31 PM - edited 07-17-2015 03:32 PM
"there seems to be more skeptics than optimists around here right now."
I agree.
Except for the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance, everyone, including the Governor of the Bank of Canada, knows that Canada has been in a recession since January.... and still is. The numbers are what they are. It is not a question of putting blame on anyone or anything but we all need to recognize the current state of the economy. It is not good and that condition is reflected in the low value of the Canadian dollar (lowest since 2009).
And yes the low value of the Canadian dollar may help a few businesses selling in US$ but. for the average Canadian, it means higher prices for food and other products imported and priced in US$.
It is time to recognize that the policy of the last ten years to lower taxes on banks, corporations and high income earners has NOT been to the benefit of the average Canadian. New policies are needed or we will get in a bigger hole.
07-17-2015 03:51 PM
Lowest since 2009
Look back to the banking ... mortgage ... problems in the autumn of 2008 in the US.... and the Canadian dollar was up near $1.25 = $1.00 US.
It was the US dollar that took a hit....
07-17-2015 03:57 PM
07-17-2015 05:36 PM
Perhaps we should ask what caused the change in value of the Canada dollar relative to the US dollar.
Was the increased value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar due to...
(1) A drop in value of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar....
$0.77 US = $1.00 Canadian
(2) And increase in value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar....
$1.00 US = $1.29 Canadian
(3) A combination of a drop in value of the US dollar and an increase in value of the Canadian dollar...... resulting in an increase in value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar
$0.90 US = $1.16 Canadian
--------------------------------------------
(1) and (2) are possible as an absolute .... but (3) may be the most likely situation with a worldwide effect, a differential effect , on the value of both the US and Canadian dollars
07-17-2015 05:40 PM
"Perhaps we should ask ..."
There are things in life one should not even attempt to understand. We have to accept some realities for what they are.
When I walk on the street and a pretty woman smiles at me... I do not ask why. I just enjoy and appreciate the moment! ... and try to remember it by the time I get home so I can tell Mary about it!
And life does go on.
07-17-2015 06:35 PM
I considered that the Cdn $ was over valued as compared to the US $, the last few years. I am exempting other currencies.
I could not see a valid reason why we were higher. I chalked it up to speculators, much the same as when oil ran up to near $150. That, some believe, was the result of speculation and not market.
Free enterprise markets are highly fallible as governments can easily influence them, if that makes any sense.
So, the Cdn $ is back where it was.
I will keep a reserve in my American account so that currency valuations have no effect on me.
07-17-2015 07:18 PM
The bank of Canada reduced its interest rate.
Because of falling oil prices...
and the value of the Canadian dollar went up relative to the US dollar.
The pattern for change in value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar, to the Euro and to the GBP are all similar.