The dangerous drift towards world war in Asia

[pierrelebel]

After talking to Japanese officials in Tokyo over the last few days, I have the strong impression not only that they are ready to fight, but also that they expect to win, and furthermore that conflict may come at any moment.

"They are sending ships and even aircraft into our territory every day. It is intense provocation. We're making every effort not to be provoked but they are using fire-control radar. This is one step away from conflict and we are very worried," said a top government official.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9950791/The-dangerous-drift-toward... 

[puckstopshere]

Scares the heck out of me.  I have often thought that China would ultimately be more of a threat than Germany ever was.  Will the U.S. back Japan?  Hard to say, but my guess is not if a full scale war breaks out.

[pierrelebel]

"Will the U.S. back Japan?"

Last time around (1939) the US stayed on the sidelines.

They only got involved in WWII over two years later when attacked by Japan.

[rose-dee]

China doesn't need to physically go to war with the U.S.  They hold so much U.S. currency and U.S. debt that they could effectively cripple America with a few strokes of the pen.  Even the threat of it might be enough to keep the US from intervening on Japan's behalf. 

And yet... Japan is ostensibly America's ally.   However, as you say, allegiance didn't stop the US from fence-sitting during WWII and didn't stop England from attempting to make peace with Hitler at the expense of France. 

This is a very dangerous situation.  It seems the media has been focused on the circus in North Korea and ignoring these developments.  Given the bitter history between Japan and China in the last 100 years or so, why has virtually nothing of this potentially much more explosive and world-disrupting conflict been focused on by the media (aside, obviously from the Telegraph article in the U.K. noted above)?  I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that the largest share of the world's media is based in the U.S.?

[prior-of-verity*shake-hands-with-your-devil]

Last time around (1939) the US stayed on the sidelines.

They only got involved in WWII over two years later when attacked by Japan.

The US and their foreign policy has changed a lot since WW2.

[inuk_the_polar_bear]

China doesn't need to physically go to war with the U.S.  They hold so much U.S. currency and U.S. debt

That is a myth.

Japan: 7.0%

China (including Hong Kong): 8.1%

The USA actually holds two third's of it's own debt.

[inuk_the_polar_bear]

The US government has a $128 TRILLION stockpile of paid for assets.

[art-in-the-making]

As far as the "debt" is concerned - anything can be shown by manipulating the numbers.

But with 1.35 billion people "under command" for all intents and purposes China is getting close to being able to determine the nature of economic reality according to their own creative accounting - that is if they aren't already there.

As far as the Chinese are concerned the quaint caprices of London bankers will be as irrelevant as bowler hats and bobbies (and Lloyds).

Last time around (1939) the US stayed on the sidelines.

Last time around back in the '30s the Chinese peasants, getting strafed in their fields by Japanese fighter planes, thought they were under attack by some sort of horrendous fire-spitting dragons. So, what happened last time probably isn't of much interest now, except in the question of revenge or other enduring grievances.

The trouble with this situation is that people may act irrationally.

Here and there in every government and every population there are people with more bravado than brains. The macho man types (whether they be M or F 🙂 ) Combine these factors with past grievances, perceived insults, the pervasive shadow of fear...

Yeah, definitely plenty of reason for concern.

[inuk_the_polar_bear]

Do not believe for one second that the Americans, Russians, and Chinese are not sitting around a table discussing this. The Chinese have everything to lose with de-stabilization.

The UN Security Council unanimously passed the sanctions against North Korea. China and Russia are permanent members.

[dipmicro]

I don't think there is any reason for concern. China will not openly engage Japan.