Call for the next election:
Liberals will win. This ISIS thing is the only issue in two years where Harper has been on the +ive side of public opinion, depending on how the question is asked. But watch how ISIS unfolds - either way Harper loses - if it turns out to be a useless, endless gory quagmire that amplifies anti-western sentiments in the Muslim world and ships Canadians home in coffins for no reason, that is not going to look good for Harper. On the other hand, if ISIS is swept away and everything turns up roses (which is pretty unlikely!) - then basically the issue just goes away and becomes a non-issue. The only way Harper wins the ISIS gambit is if he somehow manages to keep ratcheting up the fear factor among Lib/Con swing voters, mainly in Ontario. He's not making any hay with ISIS in QC or AB. But at a certain point people aren't stupid - how long are they going to go along believing ISIS is a threat and is worth dumping billions over?
The pot thing is a minor factor - just common sense. You cut off the mob and gangs from a huge part of their lifeline and stop making criminals out of people for no reason.
A lot of other factors are coming home to roost. People see Harper's policies resulting in good jobs getting farmed out to Asia, Mexico, Memphis. They see how his government promoted the Temporary Foreign Workers program like there's no tomorrow bringing in hundreds of thousands of low skilled workers to keep our wages down and allowing every corporation from banks to fast food chains to abuse it. The part time McJobs that Canadians are getting stuck with.
They see his policies devastating the environment. Just the fact that Harper is anti-science and anti-education could be enough to get him turfed out, all things being equal.
So, little doubt about whether Harper will get the boot. The only questions are - does he come in 2nd or 3rd? And, do we wind up with a minority government because the NDP and Liberals waste too much energy going after each other?
Any way you look at it, it will definitely be interesting, and it will be a true pleasure to say good-bye to Stephen Harper.
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