Trump Tariffs incoming?

[rdemaree]

So trump has unfortunately won a 2nd term in the usa. 

I am wondering what this will mean for Canadian sellers whose customer base is 75% usa?

I heard an idea of 10% blanket tariffs globally on all imports going into USA. What would this mean for me as a Canadian seller who ships primarily to the usa?

Are we doomed?

Thoughts?

-Ryan

[fergua3]

well, nothing will happen until after jan 20 when he takes office.  But after that anything is possible.   The good news is Trump says a lot of things and doesn't follow through, so tariffs may be more targeted that 'blanketed'.   

But if not that means all US based customers will get a 10% surcharge/customs fee on items we ship them....plus a handling charge on top of that maybe.   Ebay will no doubt go to extreme lengths to warn US based buyers of the new tariffs before they purchase, so it could indeed be bad news for sellers outside the US.    

I'm hoping saner heads will prevail in Trump's oval office and disuade him from tariffs, which will end up crippling the world's economies in the long run.  If Trump does follow through will his tariffs as outlined, then the rest of the world economies are going to have to band together, quickly create trade aggreements with each other and just trade around the US.  Everyone will be in the same boat so there will be a strong incentive for everyone to cooperate for the mutal benefit of all (except the US).

[marnotom!]

Remember Trump's Immigration Wall from the last election that got him in?  This is the equivalent for this election.

[flipistics]

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@marnotom! wrote:

Remember Trump's Immigration Wall from the last election that got him in?  This is the equivalent for this election.

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Maybe, maybe not. He did actually put some tariffs in place last time so it's something I can definitely see him being eager to do. Hopefully saner heads around him (if there are any) will prevail, but who knows. He also did build a small portion of the wall.  IMO people need to stop trying to dismiss / interpret / rationalize what he says. I feel like he says exactly what he's thinking and/or wants to do.

The good news is that I don't think it will happen any time soon. It's probably more of a 2026 problem.

[reallynicestamps]

Since the USA imports very little from Russia, I doubt his handlers will do much to stop him.

However, a visit with Xi may change his mind.

[cottagewoman]

Hoping that the de minimis rules will still be applicable - allowing items under 800 go tariff/duty free. If not then I have a huge shift to try and manage as I only list on .com and ship via cross border services.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@fergua3 wrote:

well, nothing will happen until after jan 20 when he takes office.  But after that anything is possible.   The good news is Trump says a lot of things and doesn't follow through, so tariffs may be more targeted that 'blanketed'.   

But if not that means all US based customers will get a 10% surcharge/customs fee on items we ship them....plus a handling charge on top of that maybe.   Ebay will no doubt go to extreme lengths to warn US based buyers of the new tariffs before they purchase, so it could indeed be bad news for sellers outside the US.    

I'm hoping saner heads will prevail in Trump's oval office and disuade him from tariffs, which will end up crippling the world's economies in the long run.  If Trump does follow through will his tariffs as outlined, then the rest of the world economies are going to have to band together, quickly create trade aggreements with each other and just trade around the US.  Everyone will be in the same boat so there will be a strong incentive for everyone to cooperate for the mutal benefit of all (except the US).

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@fergua3 

Could you even imagine if US sellers now started to have to pay for customs clearance on returns???? 🤣😂🤣 Then all would be fair in love, war and international trade!!! Hey....Just keep it!!!

Off to get a cart.....so I can put it infront of my horse!!!

[marnotom!]

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@flipistics wrote:He did actually put some tariffs in place last time so it's something I can definitely see him being eager to do. Hopefully saner heads around him (if there are any) will prevail, but who knows. He also did build a small portion of the wall.  IMO people need to stop trying to dismiss / interpret / rationalize what he says. I feel like he says exactly what he's thinking and/or wants to do.

Just to add to my post, both the tariffs proposal and notion of the wall were monumental announcements by The Flaming Cheeto, serving their purpose in grabbing the media spotlight and getting Trump the attention and votes he so desperately craved.  As you say, the wall didn't see much construction, and my bet is that any tariffs that are levied as a result of Trump's campaigning will not be of the scale that he suggested.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@flipistics wrote:

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@marnotom! wrote:

Remember Trump's Immigration Wall from the last election that got him in?  This is the equivalent for this election.

---

Maybe, maybe not. He did actually put some tariffs in place last time so it's something I can definitely see him being eager to do. Hopefully saner heads around him (if there are any) will prevail, but who knows. He also did build a small portion of the wall.  IMO people need to stop trying to dismiss / interpret / rationalize what he says. I feel like he says exactly what he's thinking and/or wants to do.

The good news is that I don't think it will happen any time soon. It's probably more of a 2026 problem.

---

@flipistics 

Important to remember what Trump did and/or tried to do to USPS last time he was in power. All because he wasn't a fan of mail in ballots. This situation will likely be just as bad if it does get implemented based on Trumps tangled mind.

-Lotz

[fergua3]

Trump also tried to bully the UPU (Universal Postal Union) and when that didn't work threatened to withdraw from it,  which would have meant no international mail could have been sent to or been shipped from the USA via the postal system.  Trump benefited from sane counsel back then and changed his mind.

This time there will be little if any sane counsel around Trump.  Just sycophants with their greedy hands out.

[reallynicestamps]

Harris was calling Trump's tariff a 'sales tax' and it would be possible to add a 10% sales tax to imported goods without changing the $800 de minimus.

Just as we pay the GST on a de minimus of $40 but duty on a de minimus of $150.

[cottagewoman]

Good point - however de minimis allows shipments under $800 to enter without tariffs or duties being assessed.  If there were a sales tax, that's a different story, that's the situation we're in here in Canada (to your point regarding GST and duty when importing to Canada).

There is a great push right now from the Biden administration to remove all chinese goods under the 301 tarrif list from entering via de minimis, as they are avoiding all the tarrifs in place under that 301 list which was supposed to hurt the Chinese - they've been skirting the tarrifs by selling directly to customers via de minimis entries.

I imagine the Trump admin will scrap de minimis entirely, honestly - if they do, forget shipping to the U.S.  That would mean a full formal customs entry for every single package with all the broker fees, etc attached, as well as the border delays.  Doubt it'll make sense to sell much on eBay under $100 with all that cost overhead.

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

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@cottagewoman wrote:

Good point - however de minimis allows shipments under $800 to enter without tariffs or duties being assessed.  If there were a sales tax, that's a different story, that's the situation we're in here in Canada (to your point regarding GST and duty when importing to Canada).

There is a great push right now from the Biden administration to remove all chinese goods under the 301 tarrif list from entering via de minimis, as they are avoiding all the tarrifs in place under that 301 list which was supposed to hurt the Chinese - they've been skirting the tarrifs by selling directly to customers via de minimis entries.

I imagine the Trump admin will scrap de minimis entirely, honestly - if they do, forget shipping to the U.S.  That would mean a full formal customs entry for every single package with all the broker fees, etc attached, as well as the border delays.  Doubt it'll make sense to sell much on eBay under $100 with all that cost overhead.

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Also in play, if eBay collects at time of payment would be another place for them to charge fees on the increased final total. Lose for buyer and seller, win for eBay. Except where it directly affects cross border sales.

-Lotz

[marnotom!]

“How Trump’s Tariff Proposals Could Affect 7 Major Retailers’ Stock Prices”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2024/11/07/trump-tariffs-could-affect-stock-prices-of-five-b...

Interesting snippet:

To be sure, some think foreign companies pay tariffs. Trump has repeatedly contended that foreign companies would foot the bill, telling a gathering last month at the Economic Club of Chicago that “the countries will pay,” according to CBS News.

That claim is not backed up by reality. “A consistent theoretical and empirical finding in economics is that domestic consumers and domestic firms bear the burden of a tariff, not the foreign country,” according to an October 2024 analysis from the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University featured by CBS News.

[reallynicestamps]

I imagine the Trump admin will scrap de minimis entirely, honestly - if they do, forget shipping to the U.S. That would mean a full formal customs entry for every single package

That happens automatically now with any tracked package going to the UK or EU. Just another country to add to the list.

Even at $7.25 a Tracked USA label, which also has customs info including the HS number, is already expensive for shipping items sold under $100.

Still profitable , depending on our procurement costs, but pricey.

some think foreign companies pay tariffs.

Which is the eBay seller. But that cost would be paid by the buyer on their doorstep, so no eBay fee.

Still gonna be a sale killer for exporters to the USA, when the private customer has to pay their first "GST" before receiving their purchase.

Less so for large businesses, like solar collector retailers or softwood lumber purchasers who will bury the "GST" in their prices.
On the other hand, sell your IKEA stock now.

[reallynicestamps]

That would mean a full formal customs entry for every single package with all the broker fees, etc attached, as well as the border delays.

Tracked packet has that already.

The eBay and SnapShip forms ask for the name of the product (eBay fills that automatically), the HS code (I keep a list of the dozen I have used, of which four are used constantly), the value (eBay fills that automatically) and whether or not this is a sale, gift, or documents.

I have occasionally adjusted the name of the product - once for a sociology text I was sending to Pakistan where it might call to much attention to the buyer.

[dobo5250]

if that happens and trump wins  with his new taxes-- then what was said up above  is correct- they will probality have sort of min amount to let in import free --- cause then what would happen to all the gifts sent to the usa  from expats etc  to their relatives ---i would image this would affect high roller sellers-- those that ship more than 50 item wk/months to the states - as then there would a track record of those sellers for customs brokerage  people to make money on also--  i also guess that a lot of sellers that take their packages to the states undisclosed  by car and slip them into us postal serivices  in cross border towns -- that would increase greatly  as it already when the postal strike was on the increase being caught at the boarder rose greatly --- i have a friend who works for us customs  she said the increase was about 25% of those getting caught  bringing  stuff over undeclaired   as the strike worn on -- i should call her and ask what she thinks now if this happens  what she thinks will happen -- i guess you really got to be sneaky  and hope you don't get caught --- one of the many reasons i don't sell to the usa- i just not  that kind of person -- i guess i will watch "border patrol  serveses show "and see how it playes out on tv 

[wilsonharborsales]

If they use emergency measures, the 25% tariff will apply on all imported Canadian goods across the board.  The de minimus does not supercede emergency measures.  Danielle Smith just returned from Mar-A-Lago and stated that tariffs are imminent and will be wide-spread.

[renouvel_93]

Apparently, from what I understand, de minimis is ending primarily so that all shipments--especially small ones--are checked for drugs and other contraband.   This was initiated by Biden. 

Anywho, I wish eBay would put out some message to let Canadian sellers know possible scenarios.  I currently have my status as away until I know more about what to expect.   Do I keep selling now or what until I know more. 

The uncertainty is draining. 

[flipistics]

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@renouvel_93 wrote:

Apparently, from what I understand, de minimis is ending primarily so that all shipments--especially small ones--are checked for drugs and other contraband.   This was initiated by Biden. 

Anywho, I wish eBay would put out some message to let Canadian sellers know possible scenarios.  I currently have my status as away until I know more about what to expect.   Do I keep selling now or what until I know more. 

The uncertainty is draining. 

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I (hopefully temporarily) turned off sales to the USA on Friday. I'll wait and see what actually happens on Monday or Tuesday and then decide how to proceed. There's really nothing eBay can tell us right now because it appears that no one outside of Trump's inner circle knows. There's no reason to turn off sales within Canada though.

If all packages have to be processed at the border, it's going to clog the entire mail system up because they don't have the manpower to actually do that.  Even for inbound packages here in Canada, many packages that went through the USPS / Canada Post weren't charged tariffs or taxes until they reached much, much higher than our de minimis because it cost them far more to process it than what they collected.