The advice of the other posters here is sound, and will save you from these issues in future. I doubt the item is entirely lost in the mail -- it will most likely eventually show up, but far too late to do you any good.
To deal with the problem at hand, I would say you have two choices, depending on your point of view about the ultimate outcome. These options are based on the assumption that you have no proof of delivery:
1) Do you want to try to placate the buyer (is it even possible?) in order to hope he/she won't trash your DSRs and leave negative FB? If your seller ratings are the most critical factor to you, I would offer an immediate refund -- hopefully this is not an expensive item -- and explain to the buyer that when the item does arrive, you would ask that the buyer either return it to you unopened or allow you to re-invoice for it. If returned, it may take another 2 or 3 months to reach you, but you'll be able to re-sell it and recoup some of your loss.
This will obviously only work if you're still on polite terms with the buyer. The buyer is entitled to make an INR claim, but it may be possible to lessen the eventual damage to your seller status, if the buyer will communicate.
By the way, have you considered telephoning? The buyer's phone # is sometimes available on the eBay or Paypal transaction record. If you have a pleasant telephone manner, I find it's much easier to work out difficult problems and establish a human connection by phone. Yes, it would be on your dime, but remember that as a seller you are responsible to ensure the buyer either gets the item or gets a refund. And if you phone, be apologetic, calm, polite and have a solution to offer the buyer (refund).
The way I see it, you took the risk of using surface shipping to Australia -- even though it was at the buyer's request, the ultimate responsibility is the seller's. Given a choice, buyers will always choose the cheapest shipping (they don't often appreciate the differences in shipping services, nor should they have to care). Given a situation like this, I would "subsidize" my buyer's shipping, i.e. pay out of my own pocket for an upgrade so that I can send the item via air (actually I never show surface rates in my listings - yes, this may reduce the number of potential buyers, but you've discovered the unpleasant alternative). If you can't afford to "subsidize" overseas shipping on the items you're selling, then I'd suggest that you consider not shipping to Australia or other overseas destinations until you can afford such subsidies.
2) Do you see it as more or less inevitable that this buyer will trash your DSRs/FB no matter what you do now? If so, and if you're past the point of being able to communicate reasonably with the buyer, let the buyer open an INR case if he/she wants to. You will lose the case without proof of delivery, and be obliged to refund in any event. At that point (and after the buyer has left whatever FB/DSRs he feels are owing), you are done with this transaction, and can learn from it and move on.
Even if a claim is opened by the buyer and a refund is made, I think there is still potential to salvage something out of the situation if you're able to communicate with the buyer. There is the possibility the buyer may return the item, or (if he/she is an honest type) may advise you once it's received so you can re-invoice. You may be able to work these requests into your communications with Paypal.
Ultimately I think the outcome depends on whether you can (or want to) re-establish reasonable communication with the buyer. But you do need to recognize that the fault was yours as seller, and you should take steps not to allow this situation to happen again.
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