Health officials announce ‘presumptive’ case of coronavirus in Toronto

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

https://globalnews.ca/news/6462626/coronavirus-toronto-hospital/

I'm not here to spread panic, but I would strongly advise everybody, be it the Wuhan virus or the common cold/flu virus, the BEST way to protect yourselves and your loved ones is frequent and diligent handwashing (with soap and water, or hand sanitizer), and to wear a surgical mask (if you can still find them). Cover your mouth and nose by sneezing into your elbow (not your hands!), or if you used your hands then wash them as soon as possible before you touch anything else. 

If you recently traveled back from high risk countries with confirmed Wulan Coronavirus (such as China), please isolate yourself at home, for 14 days if possible, as that's the incubation period of the virus. The symptoms quite vary with this virus, not everybody would present with a fever and some people stay asymptomatic. Avoid crowded areas, and wear a medical grade surgical mask if possible. Part of the reason why the numbers skyrocketed recently is because of the long incubation period; people who thought they weren't sick and didn't take precautions, ended up being sick. One doctor already died in China from this virus, and thousands (actual number is probably way more) infected. 

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/fifth-coronavirus-presumptively-confirmed-bc

5th case in BC but only minimal info revealed because they want to avoid unnecessary panic lol?

[reallynicestamps]

The local (Victoria) news said the case was in the Interior and that the patient did not seem to have had the kind of contacts that led to the other identified cases.

[reallynicestamps]

Ah-- she had not been to Wuchan, but had recently returned from China.

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/interior-woman-is-b-c-s-fifth-coronavirus-case-1.24076850

And worldwide:

Meanwhile, according to the World Health Organization, as of Feb. 14, there have been 49,053 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, of which almost all — 48,548 — are in China. There have been 505 laboratory-confirmed cases outside of China, spread among 24 countries, including the eight in Canada.

There have been 1,381 deaths related to COVID-19, with two outside of China, in the Philippines and Japan.

And again, keeping things in perspective. Wuchan has a population of 11,800,000 people. More than New York City. Just under 0.03% of the population of China has been diagnosed as sick, although any figures coming from the government of China are suspect.

[ypdc_dennis]

A good website to keep up to date with coronavirus COVID-19 news:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Number of cases now exceeds 100,000 with over 3400 deaths.

Major problem spot is currently Iran (apparently some Iranian provinces did a China and suppressed early reports).  Canada now has 48 cases, 0 deaths.

March 6

[ypdc_dennis]

March 8: the Italian government took measures to contain Italians living in 14 provinces in the north of the country, as well as restrictive measures covering the whole country.

Northern Italy under lockdown

- Lombardy region (all provinces)
- Piedmont (provinces of Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, and Vercelli)
- Veneto (provinces of Padua, Treviso, and Venice)
- Emilia Romagna (provinces of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini)
- Marche (province of Pesaro Urbino)

Italy: 5900 cases, 233 deaths, rate of about 97 cases per million population

Iran: 6600 cases, 194 deaths, 78 cases per million

South Korea: 7400 cases, 50 deaths, 142 cases per million

China: 80800 cases, 3098 deaths, 56 cases per million

USA: 464 cases, 19 deaths, 1.4 cases per million

Canada: 63 cases, 0 deaths, 1.7 cases per million

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

-..-

[rcrawford34]

On Friday about 24 Postal Workers in Peterborough Ont refused to enter their main work area due to concerns of this Virus

A Manager there had just returned from a trip to Asia and exhibited Flu Like symptoms . The Posties felt unsafe entering so went home.  They said since they deliver mail to Retirement Homes and Schools they did not want to chance it 

Later Friday morning Canada Post announced  the Manager had been tested and it was confirmed she had a completely different strain of Flu.  C.P.  said they understood the concern  and why they refused to come in   but CP followed proper procedures and informed employees  once the other strain was confirmed

Sounds like a number did not return to work Friday but about 3 PM saw my Postal Carrier out delivering mail with a mask on 

weavers

[kawartha-ephemera]

We, as in the general public, should by now expect to experience many disruptions along these lines in the coming weeks and months unless we are very fortunate.

[forester_studios]

Just wondering if you know where in the interior it was reported?

I think this has really been overblown by the mass media.  To put it in perspective.  The 2018-19 Flu season had around 40,000 deaths globally.  Deaths of this virus are under 4,000 at this point.  There are nearly 8 billion people on the planet.  The health authorities still say the risk here is "Low".  You have a better chance of dying in a highway incident.  Mindless panic does not help any situation.  Just my opinion folks.

[cumos55]

Everything started when that doctor in China reported there was a problem.

He was told to "Shut Up" .......................China did not want the information to get out.

They eventually presented a photograph of this doctor on CNN...  and he was dead.

The question becomes .....

"Would things have been different if that first doctor's  information was treated as important, and was viewed as a real problem"

Maybe the spread of the virus would have been vigorously controlled and everything would have been better controlled and not spread that easily.

One gets the impression that China was not being totally honest as has already been indicated in this discussion

[ypdc_dennis]

March 10: Europe feeling the splash effect of Italy

Canada: 80 cases, 1 death

Air Canada will stop flying to Italy effective March 11.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[kawartha-ephemera]

@ypdc_dennis 

Based on the numbers of cases being reported it seems highly probable we will soon see more quarantine announcements ... France may be next. Their ban of large gatherings, sporting events etc. may not be sufficient to slow new infections to a manageable level. Eventually this epedemic will subside but the struggle is going to be managing how fast we get there.

The difficulty with this virus is that the transmission rate is somewhat higher than our established influenza types.

This fellow, a very highly respected expert worldwide, explains the problem in a calm no panic manner. This interview was published 05 Feb just after the Chinese had placed Hubei province under quarantine. At that time his team's models expected the outbreak there to naturally peak in a months time, this prediction appears to have been roughly accurate. This research entity published several followup interviews in February, listening to them in order of publication is very informative.

Those with inquiring minds can gain a lot of insights into testing, in particular how to interpret (or not) the reported case stats. 

Prof. Neil Ferguson

Director, Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College, London Feb. 6, 2020

https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw

[ypdc_dennis]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

March 12, 2020

...

For the last massive pandemic (100 years ago):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c (40 minutes)

They go with the Kansas theory for the start point (there are other theories).  But their coverage of the stupid mistakes and the few successes when it came to fighting the outbreak is pretty good.

The "Spanish" flu got the name because Spain did not suppress news about the flu, which caused people to think it was especially deadly in Spain.  The USA, British, French, Italian and German empires all censored news of the flu in their countries because of the war.

How bad was that flu: adjusted for population, in 2020 terms there would have be over 200,000 Canadian dead.

Hopefully we do much better this time around.

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

March 13: Canada now has 198 cases, 1 death, 11 recovered

[ypdc_dennis]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

March 15: sorted by number of active cases

Canada CTV coverage: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/

[ypdc_dennis]

March 17: sorted by active cases

At the time of the snapshot Canada had 465 cases, 5 deaths.

USA is now Canada's main virus case generator.

Good actions department:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/distilleries-using-high-proof-alcohol-to-make-hand-sanitiz...

[ypdc_dennis]

From www.ctvnews.ca the details for Canada:

74 per cent of cases are travellers, and six per cent are people in close contact with travellers

13 per cent have been hospitalized

31 per cent are over the age of 60

At the time of the snapshot below Canada had 648 cases, 9 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

March 18

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

Numbers and charts for Canada:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

The world: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

March 20: Canada moves towards the top

[ypdc_dennis]

Not all doom and gloom...

hashtag #MilkTeaMask

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

---

@cumos55 wrote:

One gets the impression that China was not being totally honest as has already been indicated in this discussion

---

The Chinese government was never honest. Take their numbers with a huge grain of salt. The actual number in China is probably 10x the reported numbers.

I haven't been to this thread in a while, but well, all I could say is I already tried raising awareness about this since late-January. Not just here but else where, but I was usually shot down for over reacting, and management were all like "China is doing well keeping this virus contained, Canada is low risk". Low risk my **bleep**. We're ranked #15 on top infected number worldwide now. Taiwan still only has about 200 infected because they don't friggin trust CCP and WHO, and they know what they're doing. The world needs to learn from Taiwan's great example. 

Face masks are almost impossible to find unless it's super overpriced like $50/box. You can hardly buy them locally now, and I agree that local resources should be sent to hospitals to the front line health care workers and other essential workers. Even toilet paper (why??), rubbing alcohol, alcohol swabs, sanitizing cleaners etc are difficult to find now.

People need to keep their physical distancing and be serious about it. This virus is highly contagious. I was looking up numbers and this is what I found...

Common flu on average, 1 person can pass it on to 1.4 people. Assuming this gets passed on 10 times and the chain of infection was never broken (meaning all these people stayed outside instead of resting at home), 1 person can end up infecting 28 people. The math is 1 x 1.4 to the power of 10 = 28.

China coronavirus is 1 to 3 people. 1 x 3 to the power of 10 = 59049 after it gets passed on 10 times. Current average death rate of the China coronavirus is about 4%. 4% of that 59049 people is 2362 people. This is what happens if no one is isolating at home and breaking that chain of infection. 

Canada was already late in stopping the outbreak. Half of the infected cases are community transmission while the other half is linked to international travels. It will take the collective effort of all Canadian citizens to keep our death toll down. Keep that physical distancing like you mean it, keep that distance as if you have the virus yourself and you don't want to pass it to anyone around you. Cancel those weddings and gathering.

At the end, many will be infected and some will die. It's a matter of keeping the curve down so that we can keep as many people alive as possible. 

Found this online, very educational: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY&d

[mcrlmn]

As of March 24, 2020 at 5:30 p.m. you now have 280 in Toronto.

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/