Health officials announce ‘presumptive’ case of coronavirus in Toronto

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

https://globalnews.ca/news/6462626/coronavirus-toronto-hospital/

I'm not here to spread panic, but I would strongly advise everybody, be it the Wuhan virus or the common cold/flu virus, the BEST way to protect yourselves and your loved ones is frequent and diligent handwashing (with soap and water, or hand sanitizer), and to wear a surgical mask (if you can still find them). Cover your mouth and nose by sneezing into your elbow (not your hands!), or if you used your hands then wash them as soon as possible before you touch anything else. 

If you recently traveled back from high risk countries with confirmed Wulan Coronavirus (such as China), please isolate yourself at home, for 14 days if possible, as that's the incubation period of the virus. The symptoms quite vary with this virus, not everybody would present with a fever and some people stay asymptomatic. Avoid crowded areas, and wear a medical grade surgical mask if possible. Part of the reason why the numbers skyrocketed recently is because of the long incubation period; people who thought they weren't sick and didn't take precautions, ended up being sick. One doctor already died in China from this virus, and thousands (actual number is probably way more) infected. 

[kawartha-ephemera]

At a minimum we are likely in for a repeat of the SARS experience.  The drastic steps that China has taken to try and limit the movement of large populations suggests the virus has them spooked.

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

One of the experts in Hong Kong, who had experience during SARS and MERS, said that he suspects the number of infected would eventually be 10x that of SARS.

Given Chinese government's track record, I'm sure the actual number infected is way higher than what's announced.

[ypdc_dennis]

Jan 28: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51290312

132 confirmed deaths, over 6000 infected

[femmefan1946]

Worth noting that Wuhan is a city of over Eleven Million people.

Puts those numbers into some perspective.

And in just the USA:

New data from the CDC released on Friday estimates that so far this season, at least 6.4 million people have caught the flu, 55,000 people have been hospitalized and 2,900 people have died — 800 more people then were estimated the week before.--Jan 4, 2020

If you haven't got your flu shot, do it now.

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

Pretty sure actual number is much higher. Now, not spreading conspiracy theories but feel free to take this with a grain of salt.

Even before the virus outbreak news that went worldwide last week, there have been Wuhan residents posting on Weibo (think: Chinese Twitter) saying that people are getting sick from a mysterious virus, and some people were refused medical treatment and sent home because the hospitals were overloaded. The Chinese government were arresting people for "spreading false rumours", and the government was telling people that they have got the virus under control, there's no need to panic, keep eating live animals, no need to wear mask etc etc. And literally days after that the situation turned and the Chinese government locked down Wuhan as they deemed the situation is no longer under their control. Before the lockdown, 5 million Wuhan residents already left the province.

Another post by Wuhan resident, said that he was stuck in Wuhan's locked down area. The emergency number (911 equivalent) no longer goes through, gas stations were shut down, transportation were shut down, food prices were driven way up. So even if people wanted to seek medical help, they have no means to unless they walk, and not many people live close to a hospital, and there is a chance they could be refused treatment even if they walk to one. A few days ago , someone who claimed to be a nurse working in a Wuhan hospital also said actual infected number in Wuhan is over 90,000.

[ypdc_dennis]

Jan 30: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51305526

170 dead, 7711 confirmed infected

Highest risk: older (50+) men with other health issues

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

Jan 31: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51322733

213 dead, 10000 confirmed infected in China

0 deaths, 115 confirmed infected in 22 other countries (Canada has 3)

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

More countries close borders.

Feb 1: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51338899

259 dead, 12000 confirmed infected in China

0 deaths, 137 confirmed infected in 24 other countries (Canada has 4)

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

How to construct a hospital in 10 days.

Feb 2: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51345855

304 dead, 14308 confirmed infected in China

157 confirmed infected in 24 other countries, 1 death (Philippines)

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

Feb 3: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51353279

361 dead, 17210 confirmed infected in China

1 death when teenager with cerebral palsy died after the relatives caring for him were quarantined (he did not have the virus).  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51362772

163 confirmed infected in 24 other countries, 1 death (Philippines)

-..-

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

Here is why following the "reported" numbers actually don't tell us how severe this actually is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/world/asia/china-coronavirus-wuhan.html

[ypdc_dennis]

Coronavirus Is Bad but US Flu's New Numbers Still Far Worse

10,000 deaths, 180,000 hospitalizations for the American 2019-2020 flu season

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924728

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

So if US flu is really far worse than Coronavirus...... why isn't US locking down cities and blocking flights from leaving the US? Other countries are blocking China flights from entering etc, nobody is blocking US flights. 

The Coronavirus is still fairly new compared to the seasonal flu which has been around for ages. I think it's only fair to compare their numbers when Coronavirus reached the end of the season (hopefully it WILL end, estimated peak is April/May). And again, if you read my link above you'll see that many deaths were not accounted for as people were refused hospitalization and hospitals were running out of the kits to test for Coronavirus.

The "RN" in the medscape article didn't even take into account that the reported number of cases and deaths with the Coronavirus (just over a month) already far surpassed that of SARS in its entire duration (~9 months). 

[femmefan1946]

9000-1000 flu deaths-- dog bites man

one coronavirus death (outside of China),-- man bites dog.

It's news,  not olds.

And there are flu vaccines available, of varying efficacity.

I don't trust the Chinese government numbers either, but I do trust the others.

Canada is flying our people (and their families, not all Canadian citizens) home but they will be quarantined at Trenton Air Base for a couple of weeks.

[ypdc_dennis]

Feb 6: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51395655

563 deaths and 28,018 confirmed infected in China

The rest of the world has 2 deaths and 191 confirmed infected in 25 countries (4 infected in Canada)

Actual infected for China will be much higher because the Chinese medical system has been overwhelmed with supply, staff and bed shortages.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088

-..-

[ypdc_dennis]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795

Dr Li Wenliang dies from the coronavirus on Feb 7. He was the first doctor to raise the possibility of a new SARS type virus on December 30.  The bearer of bad news got the usual response. The police told him to stop "making false comments" or else.

[femmefan1946]

BC now has four confirmed cases.

Actually considering how many Vancouverites are first generation Chinese immigrants and that going home for the Lunar New Year is an important part of Chinese culture,  I'm a little surprised the numbers are so low.

It would be interesting to compare the Chinese reports on 2019-2020 influenza cases and deaths with the reports on the new kid on the block.

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

---

@femmefan1946 wrote:

I'm a little surprised the numbers are so low.

---

You're assuming that everyone who came back (assuming their flights didn't get cancelled) are actually honest in reporting their travel history. The health authority isn't swabbing people who didn't report travel history in China. If they are generally healthy individuals then they probably won't die from it. While there are deaths with younger people (like the 34 years old doctor posted above), generally speaking it's still the older and more frail people who are more prone to dying from it. 

My work manager is apparently coming back from China in a couple weeks (I'm not sure what flight she's coming back from, I wasn't planning to ask). I'm curious if she will self-isolate...... 

Side note: I also saw this article where this Hong Kong expert noted an observation... about how he suspects the Wuhan virus outbreak might not end in summer time because currently Singapore and Thailand (with the more tropical weather) has more confirmed cases than Hong Kong. So if this is proven to be true, that could be why Canada's number is so low because of the cold weather. 

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1507184-20200207.htm

[lotzofuniquegoodies]

Article attached on some of the side effects on how the Coronavirus is adversely impacting the shipping industry. Manufacturing/Cargo Containers...Directly and indirectly. Legal implications in the future.

https://shippingandfreightresource.com/legal-implications-of-coronavirus-in-the-shipping-and-freight...

-Lotz