eBay

ricarmic · ‎01-19-2016

As I'm going through the painful task of year end book keeping, I figured now is probably the best time each year to republish this for those who are interested:

Notes:

-I live in the stamp collectors world, so these results are all from postage stamp selling categories

-this includes items lost to "crime" as well. "Crime" is defined as situations where I think people purposefully buy with bad echeques, or claiming lost in transit but that is only my best guess.

-I sell a lot of stuff internationally, 35% of my packages go outside North America

-the numbers below are specific to eBay sales. As I mentioned in other threads, I experience losses both real and "crime" related via the other online venues I use so package loss rate is not an ebay buyer issue.

It is also worth noting that for 2015 I have 3 types of insurance:

1. Self insurance for the small stuff

2. Canada Post for the first $60 or $100 only when items are sent expedited, expresspost, registered or trackable (I rarely use tracking unless something like a zero feedback high value shipment, or my spider senses are tingling!)

3. 3rd party insurer (Hugh Wood) for stuff over $200

2015 results

% of shipments = .0097 = about 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 100 packages are lost

% of sales = .0090 = about 1 percent loss rate

13 "lost" in 2015 Russia(5) Belarus, Canada, China, French Polynesia, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka

3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Russia, ordered 3 separately close together)

9 lost and unrecovered(so far)

1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Canada)

Things I did in 2015.

-I changed China and Brazil to custom shipping requiring trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers dropped dramatically.

-am considering adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking), however had many sales, including one for $1500 which more than offsets the minor losses.

-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries

2014 results

% of shipments = .0051 = 1/2 a % of packages are lost, so about 1 in 200 packages are lost

% of sales = .0040 = .4% of sales ie less than 1/2 of one percent loss rate

10 "lost" in 2014 USA(2) Nepal(1) China(2) Brazil(3) Germany(1) Russia (1)

2 believed to be lost to "crime" (China)

5 lost and unrecovered(so far) USA(2) Brazil (2) Russia

3 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Nepal,Germany,Brazil)

2013 results one half of one percent of sales loss rate:

0.51% "insurance" loss rate (10 unrecovered losses USAx3,Argentina,Chinax3,France,Israel,North Korea)

0.3% as a result of "crime" (6 shipments)

0.21% as a result of items lost in the mail (4 shipments)

(Note in 2013 2 packages “lost” and later arrived and Buyers repaid(Brazil, Russia), 1 package loss partially covered by Canada post, no losses covered by 3rd party insurer)

2012 results - under 1% of sales loss rate:

0.83% "insurance": loss rate (unrecovered loss 9 shipments Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chinax2,Indonesia,Russia,Turkey)

0.78% as a result of "crime" (2 shipments)

0.04% as a result of items lost in the mail (7 shipments)

A reminder that 2012 is the year that CP covered the small packets, I had a few recoveries this way.

I had a big crime loss within Canada (this was also spelled out in a different thread).

mr.elmwood · ‎01-19-2016

Just going on memory, I lost about 4 packets in 2015. I had one neg for a broken part, but no case for reimbursement. I had about 1,000 unit sales.

Of what I can recall, one was to Washington state, one to California as an alternate address to Mexico, one to Mexico, and one to Brazil.

As I buy in bulk, I amortize my COGS as $1 per widget. I cannot lose unrealized profit.

Total postage costs, for the four, were about $45 CDN. $45 plus $4, my losses through the mail for 2015 were $49.

Forty-nine dollars. $4 a month. 13¢ a day.

How much should I spend on insurance to protect myself against losses of thirteen cents a day?

I took the money I did not spend on tracking and insurance, and spent some of it in Las Vegas last week. I had way too much fun Wednesday drinking, gambling, meeting people, going to see John Fogerty at the Venetian.

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momcqueen · ‎01-19-2016

The pile of paper though which I have to wade in order to compile 2015 stats like yours sits on my desk and measures 3 feet high. Year-end is a very ambitious task for me and one that I thoroughly despise. When I am done, I will come back to this thread. Off the top of my head, lost-in-the-mail matters were slim to none in both 2015 and 2014. Like I've said countless times before, the moment that bar code appeared on Small Packets labels, messages from buyers about Items Not Received came to a screeching halt. Plus, I stopped leaving any parcel in a street mail box, always taking it inside to hand to the ladies behind the counter.

But I digress.... I know my Christmas this year was not nearly as brisk for sales as the year previous but I also did not have a full complement of stock available. This debacle with the Product Catalogue in May put me months behind schedule. I'm still trying to shoot and list items I acquired in the Summer of 2015, some of which have already had their moment in the sun and will now be less-than-interesting to people until I am the last person on ebay with them. In my category, you either have to be the first person with something, or the last person left holding it.

I am interested to see what other sellers bring to the discussion in terms of their year-end analysis.

sylviebee · ‎01-19-2016

I use Third party insurance selectively.

I currently have a claim in for $100 and if that pans out I won't be that far behind.

If they don't pay I won't use TPI again.

For me insuring isn't really about dollars and cents as much as it's about feeling a little more at ease when shipping overseas where tracked packet is too expensive.

reallynicestamps · ‎01-19-2016

the moment that bar code appeared on Small Packets labels, messages from buyers about Items Not Received came to a screeching halt.

Even the meaningless barcode on PP Light Packet labels are enough to discourage many scammers.

Plus, I stopped leaving any parcel in a street mail box,

I have never had a problem with street boxes, but this may be a factor of location. I wouldn't use the one by the high school for example.

mr.elmwood · ‎01-19-2016

@reallynicestamps wrote:
the moment that bar code appeared on Small Packets labels, messages from buyers about Items Not Received came to a screeching halt.
Even the meaningless barcode on PP Light Packet labels are enough to discourage many scammers.

Plus, I stopped leaving any parcel in a street mail box,
I have never had a problem with street boxes, but this may be a factor of location. I wouldn't use the one by the high school for example.

I noticed that as well.

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sylviebee · ‎01-19-2016

@reallynicestamps wrote:
the moment that bar code appeared on Small Packets labels, messages from buyers about Items Not Received came to a screeching halt.
Even the meaningless barcode on PP Light Packet labels are enough to discourage many scammers.

My buyer (the non-arrival) was clever though. She started emailing me from China about 10 days (about 6 business days) after I'd shipped complaining that her item hadn't arrived and asking for tracking.

So transparent.

lucitabby · ‎01-19-2016

I had one lost package out of 200 - a $10.00US item with free shipping. It was sent Lettermail to an address in my Province. The person did not open a case and was more than happy to wait a total of 5 weeks. I refunded all costs except for 1 penny.

I self insure re light packet and lettermail but with our low dollar right now, I am able to send most items with tracking.

momcqueen · ‎01-19-2016

I must agree that after selling here for awhile, one gets a sixth-sense about funny business afoot when it comes to 'where is my order' questions on untracked postal services. Like a buyer who says something like, 'this has not come to my doorstep yet' as if they never shipped it to their own address to begin with or that they know it awaits them at Customs because they haven't paid their import fees due and that makes them angry... Or someone who says in veiled terms that 'tracking doesn't show where it is' and then you look and see they're selling it themselves.

Not so long ago, I had an overseas person who signed up the same day as they bought from me and then left feedback saying 'item arrived in good condition' but also left word that they were disappointed it had been delivered later than they had hoped. Two days later, opened an INR case with paypal. I knew I was sunk despite the feedback having already been left because it was Small Packets Airmail. Nonetheless, I called paypal and, as a courtesy, they looked into the matter and closed the case in a way that it did not affect the balance of my account or hold me accountable. This took me by surprise since I had merely called them seeking advice on how to mitigate the damage with the buyer and his/her case before it escalated to claim. They said that they could see that I have been a good, and reliable customer for many years.

To that end, I have lost patience with untraced post. I really have. Even though I have been very fortunate to deal with INR ever so very rarely, it raises my blood pressure too high too fast and I want no more of it. Adding insult to injury is the potential for defects. I'm eliminated Small and Light Packets wherever possible now.

decal-fx · ‎01-19-2016

A little over 5000 packages sent. I sell Reproduction Decals

Loss Rate 11/5000 = 0.22%

1 parcel USA lost by Purolator/UPS First 100 insured (Fully Covered Loss)

1 Airmail Small Parcel to OZ - Self Insured
9 Letter Mail Items 5 USA, 4 Canada(3 QC) 1 OZ , 1 Germany

I only use insurance up to $100 when included in service ie CPC Expedited/ Xpress Post or Purolator/UPS

I find we worry more about the possibility of loss, then the actual occurrences, at least that's my experience.

recped · ‎01-19-2016

Very low volume year for me (self-inflicted).....

1 lost package to Germany, cost of loss <$10

"What else could I do? I had no trade so I became a peddler" - Lazarus Greenberg 1915
- answering Trolls is voluntary, my policy is not to participate.

musicyouneed · ‎01-20-2016

In 2015, I refunded 3 out of about 700 CD's sold. All cookie jar insurance.

2 were to the US, one came back to me as unclaimed and 1 to Canada which I believe he did get and was just trying to pull a fast one. So only 2 were lost as one came back.

In 2016 so far I have refunded 1 that was purchased in 2015.

I have been lucky so far. I also don't sell to countries that have a terrible mail service and I sell CD's, it's not like they are big ticket items and in demand. Also I find that the people that buy CD's are older or buying for someone older.

I still find it hard to believe that any get lost, maybe it's because I was a fraud investigator in my past life and I mostly dealt with liars. When I am on the .com website and even with tracking some items just disappear, so I have to just believe the buyer.

momcqueen · ‎01-20-2016

I find it very interesting that we are dealing with (at least anecdotally) with such a very low rate of actual loss YET tracking is so very important to eBay (and PayPal). It leads me to question who the sellers and buyers are that have made this necessary.

momcqueen · ‎01-20-2016

(That is, notwithstanding the incidents of which we are aware that the whole contents of a letterbox have disappeared.)

sylviebee · ‎01-20-2016

@mjwl2006 wrote:
I find it very interesting that we are dealing with (at least anecdotally) with such a very low rate of actual loss YET tracking is so very important to eBay (and PayPal). It leads me to question who the sellers and buyers are that have made this necessary.

In the case I reported above it's apparent that my buyer has done this before. When reading her FB there are two comments from sellers who were forced to leave PFB but left comments warning other sellers of what was to come.

What gets me is that she is so confident she'll get away with it that she doesn't even try to conceal what she's doing. She makes sure that there is no tracking before filing her case.

Still, I'd much rather have a case where the buyer claims that the item didn't arrive than one where the buyer claims INADed.

There is no insurance to cover the latter.

There must also be sellers who don't ship items they were paid for but during my 13 years of buying here I have NEVER encountered a seller who didn't ship.

Many many many INADed cases, but everyone shipped something.

lukey9 · ‎01-20-2016

I just finished last years Books as I know the longer I put it off the harder it will be. Since I stopped shipping out side of North America I have only lost two items all of last year both to Quebec with both under 10.00. Before OZ was the worst one for me because of the high price of shipping with Insurance all parcel went untracked and I lost too many that I just stopped shipping there all together.

I'm dealing with a Buyer in Quebec that was not happy with an Auction that I gave him a 50 % refund just to get rid of him because that was all he wanted. The next day he gives me a Neutral FB for the item and the Refund sat unclaimed in is PP account because he could not get it out. I explained about 3 times to him how to claim it but it went unclaimed and was put back in my account. 2015 was a good year in losses for me but my sales were way down over the previous year

pierrelebel · ‎01-20-2016

2015 was the slowest year for me on eBay in eighteen years.

With nearly 500 sales and slightly more than 300 shipments, only one loss in the mail (less than one third of one percent).

I self insure everything and never pay for insurance, regardless of value, including several $1,000+ shipments last year shipped by regular CP parcel service.

It is well known that insurance companies make huge profits underwriting postal losses. I would rather put that profit in my pockets.

mr.elmwood · ‎01-20-2016

@pierrelebel wrote:
2015 was the slowest year for me on eBay in eighteen years.

With nearly 500 sales and slightly more than 300 shipments, only one loss in the mail (less than one third of one percent).

I self insure everything and never pay for insurance, regardless of value, including several $1,000+ shipments last year shipped by regular CP parcel service.

It is well known that insurance companies make huge profits underwriting postal losses. I would rather put that profit in my pockets.

That is because losses are a myth.

I put an extra $1000 (one thousand) a year into my pocket NOT buying insurance.

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sylviebee · ‎01-20-2016

@mr.elmwood wrote:
That is because losses are a myth.

I put an extra $1000 (one thousand) a year into my pocket NOT buying insurance.

Yes, but I think you're calculating using numbers based on the assumption that you'd buy insurance for everything across the board.

When you buy insurance selectively it can make good sense.

For example: Among other things, TPI insurance means that you can often use a less expensive method of shipping for some high priced items and those numbers have to be considered as well.

I haven't done the calculations like others have but I'm pretty sure I'm ahead buying TPI selectively.