Harper headed for majority

[tobyshitzu]

Good news!!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/author/mainstreet/

"A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB). The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.37%, 19/20. With 5,147 respondents it is the largest ‘Federal Horserace’ telephone poll of 2015.

“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper. It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided."

[prior-of-verity*shake-hands-with-your-devil]

"His strategy to fight both Harper and Trudeau was, in my opinion, ill-advised.  He should have concentrated on Harper exclusively instead of promoting Trudeau as a viable competitor."

I agree.

I was watching TV today. Something I don't do much of. But I was surprised with the number of bands and singers and well known people and even Donald Sutherland and all their messages were the same 'Get Rid Of Harper'. Of course this appeals to a whole new demographic of younger people. I'm not sure if I have ever noticed this much promotion and general interest in getting rid of a PM in Canada. 

[art-in-the-making]

I agree totally!

if Mulcair and Trudeau had laid off each other during the campaign, I think Harper would be solidly in 3rd place by now.

Also, his platform of "childcare, healthcare, pharmacare, Mulcair" - even if it sounds good - Quebec already has all those programs so it gets pretty hard to generate much excitement here where most of the the NDP MPs are. Should have seen more about education, tourism, culture, high-tech, small business entrepreneurship, etc.

The balanced budget tactic not a good idea, perhaps the thinking was to defuse accusations that the NDP would be wild spenders. But it just wound up limiting Mulcair's options.

I would have liked to see increased taxes for the 1% and decreases for middle incomes, as Trudeau has done.

But also I'm surprised they wouldn't have tried a little more imaginative corporate tax structuring. Say by raising corporate taxes but allowing for rebates based on job creation and innovation.

[pierrelebel]

October 16 (three days to go) The Liberals are still holding a substantial lead (5.9%), but not enough for a majority:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151015%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf 

[pierrelebel]

Today's (October 16) projections :

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Liberals  135

Conservatives  118

NDP  83

170 seats needed for a majority.  This now seems very unlikely at this time with the Liberals having lost their momentum .

[tobyshitzu]

very clear who should win

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/editorial-the-case-for-returning-the-conservatives-to-po...

[valve37]

2015 Election Spending Tracker

• Liberal plan to spend an additional $10.1 billion in 2016-17 is the most expensive of the three main parties
• By 2019-20, NDP would overtake Liberals with $16 billion in additional annual spending 

• Liberals have 9 un-costed promises, CPC 6 and NDP 1

OTTAWA, ON: The Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) today released its final federal election spending tracker, tabulating the cost of all promises made by the three main political parties during the course of the 2015 federal election campaign and following the platform release of all three main parties.

“After two months of announcements and promises, Canadians now have the hard numbers,” said CTF Federal Director Aaron Wudrick.

For fiscal 2016-17, the cost of promises made by the Liberals is $10.1 billion, followed by the NDP at $5.7 billion and the Conservatives at $256 million. By fiscal 2019-20, the NDP promises to spend an additional $16 billion per year, followed by the Liberals at $10.8 billion and the Conservatives at $923 million.

“Recall that our $612 billion federal debt currently costs taxpayers $26 billion per year in interest payments alone,” added Wudrick. “Unfortunately, none of the parties have proposed to pay down debt, and one is promising more debt. We remain hopeful that whichever party forms government after October 19th will take concrete steps to address this elephant in the room.”

Not all promises by the parties have been costed. The Liberals have not costed nine promises. The Conservatives have six un-costed promises and the NDP has one promise that is un-costed.

Please click here for a breakdown of the costs of each party’s proposals. A graphic showing the cost of each party’s platforms is available here.

http://www.taxpayer.com/news-releases/ctf-releases-final-2015-election-spending-tracker?utm_source=A...

[pierrelebel]

October 17th:  Liberals increase their lead to 6.3%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151016%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

I frankly find it a bit surprising.

Valve: "Recall that our $612 billion federal debt currently costs taxpayers $26 billion per year in interest payments alone,"

That is quite true and you only need a few minutes of research to find that most of the debt was accumulated by Conservatives governments, mostly Mulroney and Harper.

[valve37]

That is quite true and you only need a few minutes of research to find that world wide 2009 recession required increasing deficit/debt.

Why continue to do so like the NDP and Liberal platforms indicate. The Cons are balancing the budget?

[pierrelebel]

Today's (October 17) projections :

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Liberals  140

Conservatives  120

NDP  74

170 seats needed for a majority.  While possible, this seems unlikely.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives seem to be gained ground while the NDP support is dropping like a stone.

Very little is expected from the Bloc in Quebec.  Should they do better than expected, their seats would most likely be gained from the NDP.

[pierrelebel]

October 18, last Nanos poll before the election shows the Liberals extending their lead to 6.8% over the Conservatives

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151017%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Liberals  37.3%

Conservatives  30.5%

NDP  22.1%

[prior-of-verity*shake-hands-with-your-devil]

There is a sadistic statistic side to Pierre. 

[pierrelebel]

Today's (October 18) seat projections :

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Getting a bit tighter:

Liberals  137

Conservatives  122

NDP  73

Bloc  5

170 seats needed for a majority.  While possible, this seems very unlikely considering the Conservatives have been gaining several seat projections in the last few days.

Ford effect?

[pierrelebel]

Compare the projections above from today to those from three days ago:

Liberals  140

Conservatives  110

NDP  86

It is quite clear that while the vote percentage for the Conservatives has been more or less constant, their seat projections have improved quite substantially (mostly at the expense of the NDP)

[tobyshitzu]

dead heat http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/and-the-winner-is-we-dont-know/

[muscoviteman]

TORONTO October 18th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1373 Canadian voters the day before the federal election, 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (40%), while 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (30%). The 10 point gap between the two parties has increased, 4 points higher since we last polled

[pierrelebel]

October 19th - voting day.  The Liberals extend their lead to 8.1% over the Conservatives

Final poll released Sunday night by Nanos:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151018%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Liberals  38.2%

Conservativs 30.1%

NDP -  oh well....

It is hard to believe but we may be looking at a Liberal majority tonight!

[pierrelebel]

Last seat projections (late Sunday evening):

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Projecting a Liberal government:

Liberals  146

Conservatives  118

NDP  66

Bloc  7

170 seats needed for a majority. 

[art-in-the-making]

Final Nanos poll gives Liberals 9 pt lead

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-tracking-liberals-hit-39-1-support-conservatives-30-5-...

The electricity is in the air for a Liberal majority - all that remains is to get out and vote.

[tobyshitzu]

CAN$ falling over fear of trudeau win.  I suppose a lot of LPC voters will choose to stay in to watch baseball

[pierrelebel]

"CAN$ falling over fear of trudeau win"

You are smarter than that!

The value of the Canadian dollar is dropping so far today because the price of crude oil has dropped more than 2% this morning.  The crude oil price is determined outside our borders and has nothing to do with the Canadian election.  And you know that.  Take a look at:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-edge-lower-as-chinas-gdp-data-weigh-2015-10-19

Desperate fear tactic, once again, by the Conservatives trying to prevent Canadians from voting for a change..