
07-29-2015 12:45 PM
Good news!!
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/author/mainstreet/
"A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB). The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.37%, 19/20. With 5,147 respondents it is the largest ‘Federal Horserace’ telephone poll of 2015.
“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper. It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.
Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided."
10-13-2015 07:36 PM
Harper rolled out the Fords today.
I wonder if there is a voter out there who stands with Harper because of this move?
10-13-2015 07:43 PM
It is called desperation
10-13-2015 08:04 PM
10-13-2015 08:07 PM
10-14-2015 06:17 AM
And the Liberal lead keeps expanding:
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151013%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
10-14-2015 07:49 AM
"EKOS has CPC leading"
That is an old story.
Current story from EKOS:
Ottawa – October 13, 2015 As we enter the final week of the campaign, the Liberals now hold a significant lead. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have had a significant drop which, if confirmed tomorrow, could spell the end of their pursuit of a stable government.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/potentially-significant-movements-after-long-weekend/
10-14-2015 10:42 AM
Ipsos-Reid also gives the Liberals a 6% lead:
and the most seats resulting in a Liberal minority government:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2274111/liberals-lead-latest-seat-projections-slightly-ahead-of-tories/
10-14-2015 11:03 AM
We could be in for major surprises yet.
Last night, Quito Maggi, of Postmedia pollster "Mainstreet" tweeted the following: "After tonight, I can comfortably say, it will be a Liberal majority on Oct 19, only question left is how big"
That's something...
And something I noticed -
Take "North Okanagan Shuswap" riding in BC. This has been a safe haven for ineffectual anonymous Conservative/Reform backbench MPs for the past 20 years.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html 308 dot com still gives the Conservatives a 75% chance of winning this riding as of latest projections a day or two ago. However, 308's riding projections are data-driven calculated based on national trends.
Turns out Leadnow http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/59020/north-okanaganshuswap/ has local polling from Environics that shows a big swing in recent weeks with the NDP's Jacqui Gingras now pulling into a 4 point lead.
spread over similar rural ridings across the country ...could be interesting!
10-14-2015 03:27 PM
I find it interesting that the figures for the advanced voting are way up and the question is 'why'? Is it Harper supporters in fear of their leader losing his residence in Ottawa? Personally I don't think so, they are not the type. I think it is more the feeling across the country that there is a real need for change and the people are more than excited to get out and be part of it than previously. People are tired of Harper's lies, tired of his cronies and the under the table payments he 'supposedly' knew nothing about (ahem). People are also tired of a man pandering to other countries and jumping at their beck and call. Tired of his lack of care for our environment. Tired of his dislike for other cultures and other ways of life and using that subtle hatred and fear as division within Canada for his own benefit. Tired of how Harper has brought our once great reputation down in the world and the UN. Yes people are tired of his smugness and his aloofness towards others entwined with his ideological religious outlooks. Hopefully his days are done and we can see a new future and a bright future instead of living under the Dark Ages of the Harper Fascist Government that never should have graced the hallowed halls of Parliament in the first place.
10-14-2015 03:49 PM
"the question is 'why'?"
Convenience. Avoid the line-ups.
10-15-2015 06:27 AM
10-15-2015 08:48 AM
A special dedication to our friends Conservatives on this board and Stephen Harper, their idol:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6RoOwSKI7M
See you in 2019.
10-15-2015 11:19 AM
I expect to see a Liberal majority.
The momentum favours them atm.
Better than an NDP minority or majority.
10-15-2015 11:47 AM
Gagnier scandal ending any hopes for a lpc win
10-15-2015 12:06 PM
"Gagnier scandal ending any hopes for a lpc win"
Time will tell but you may be right. It is bad, really bad and the Liberal Party should not underestimate the effect it may have on the many undecided voters. Damage control may not erase the stink.
I expect the Conservatives to exploit it although they may not directly benefit from it other than splitting the votes.
I suspect the result may show a last minute shift of 3%-5% from the Liberals to the NDP.
10-15-2015 01:35 PM
@pierrelebel wrote:"the question is 'why'?"
Convenience. Avoid the line-ups.
Somehow I don't think that's the explanation. We've had advance voting for as long as I can remember, but the turn-out isn't usually this significant. Something has happened to energize and motivate the electorate far more than usual.
If that "something" is a desire to oust Harper, then the Liberals may face a last minute setback on October 19th due to the recent revelations about Gagnier. Interestingly though, all those advance voters' opinions will not have been affected by this. Their votes are now written in stone and unchangeable, which -- if the tide was turning heavily Liberal -- means some mitigation for the Liberals on Oct. 19th of the fallout from Gagnier's actions.
Which begs the question of exactly who it was that leaked the details to the media. Clearly there was tactical political purpose behind the timing.
From a political science point of view this is one of the most fascinating federal elections I can recall.
10-15-2015 01:41 PM
"We've had advance voting for as long as I can remember"
Yes but there were four days this year - instead of three in 2011 (a 33% increase) - including a Holiday.
10-15-2015 04:15 PM
Latest seat projections just released today (Liberals and NDP gaining from last projections, Conservatives losing):
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html
Liberals 140
Conservatives 110
NDP 86
170 seats needed for a majority. This now seems unlikely at this time.
10-15-2015 05:07 PM
I think at this point a majority of people have decided who they want to vote for and they certainly have decided if their vote is to get rid of Harper or not. The toss up is do they go Liberal or NDP? Personally I think Mulcair would have got more mileage out of a good shave, not that there is anything wrong with a beard (I have one myself) but psychologists have done research and other than Santa Clause (who has had a lot of good PR) people with beards give the public the impression they are hiding something......politicians especially. I know it sounds like a very minor thing, but it might not be because for the most part when it comes to an individual selling a product and in politics that product is the individual, the 'charisma' they put forth is very important and being 'visual' animals it becomes even more important.
Neither do I think Gagnier is that important. What is more important especially being as Toronto is vital in Ontario, is Harper's association with Rob Ford and that has come out in a book written by Ford's ex-chief of staff. Harper just is very bad at picking 'friends' it seems either internally, politically or internationally.
10-15-2015 07:18 PM
"Personally I think Mulcair would have got more mileage out of a good shave"
Personally I think Mulcair would have got more mileage if he had set his party policies away from the governing Conservatives by
1) forget about making a priority of balancing the budget (why does he want to imitate Harper?)
2) deciding not to increase income tax on high income earners (they do not create jobs, do they?) instead of large corporations.
On both subjects the Liberals built some space between the two parties, moving slightly to the left and leaving the NDP in the middle of nowhere.
His strategy to fight both Harper and Trudeau was, in my opinion, ill-advised. He should have concentrated on Harper exclusively instead of promoting Trudeau as a viable competitor.