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tobyshitzu · ‎07-29-2015

Good news!!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/author/mainstreet/

"A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives with a strong lead nationally in the immediate aftermath of the new enhanced Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB). The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.37%, 19/20. With 5,147 respondents it is the largest ‘Federal Horserace’ telephone poll of 2015.

“It’s Christmas in July for Conservatives as the immediate response to UCCB cheques is overwhelmingly positive for Stephen Harper. It appears that along with recent economic turmoil in Asia and Europe and a strong desire to maintain balanced budgets has increased the chances of a Harper re-election this fall,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided voters, Conservatives now lead with 38%, the NDP is second with 27%, and Liberals follow close behind at 25% with the Green Party at 6% and the Bloc at 4%. 20% of voters remain undecided."

pierrelebel · ‎10-04-2015

Another day, another drop for the NDP

October 4th: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151003%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Take a good look at Quebec following the last French debate

pierrelebel · ‎10-05-2015

The "good news" for the Conservative Party is that despite the Liberal Party lead shown in Nanos polls for voting preferences, they still have a slight lead in projected seats

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Conservatives 122

Liberals 118

NDP 96

There is another "good news" for the Conservatives. An analysis of prior election results and polls taken before the election typically shows the Conservatives doing 2%-3% better than indicated by the last polls, just prior to the election date.

tobyshitzu · ‎10-05-2015

TPP a huge homerun for Harper, should really see the polls move to the CPC in th enext few days

consoledcat · ‎10-05-2015

October 5, 12 Noon PDT

The Liberal Party had the largest change, up 1.5 points since the last poll average calculations.

The Liberal Party leads with 32.4% support.

pierrelebel · ‎10-05-2015

"should really see the polls move to the CPC in the next few days"

I agree. That should be good for 3% to 5% gain, mostly at the expense of the NDP who really missed the boat on this issue.

How long will it last? Four to five days.

I expect the labour statistics to be released Friday morning may not be favourable to the Conservatives with possibly a higher unemployment rate.

We live in exciting times! Fourteen days to go.

ilurkthereforiam · ‎10-05-2015

I don't understand why Harper isn't placing the blame of high unemployment rate where it belongs on the provincial Liberals

pierrelebel · ‎10-05-2015

"blame.... provincial Liberals"

Not easy to do.

The national average for unemployment went up last month to 7.0%. It is 6.8% in Ontario.

How can a federal leader blame provincial leaders when most decisions affecting labour are made at the federal level?

Canada signs a new trade agreement where 40,000 auto part workers may lose their jobs (mostly in Ontario) according to union leaders. How can one blame a Premier for decision made by the PM and his Cabinet? Or should we blame the unions?

tobyshitzu · ‎10-05-2015

CPC leads, clearly Nanos is off this election http://globalnews.ca/news/2259404/ndp-continues-decline-as-tories-liberals-battle-for-first-in-new-i...

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

October 6th: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151005%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

According to Harper he and his party are good managers for the Canadian economy because: "Since 2006, Canada has concluded free trade agreements with no less than 39 countries, bringing the total to 44, making up more than half of the global economy and representing nearly one quarter of the world’s countries."

That sounds pretty good when you hear or read it, does it not?

How about a reality check?

Canada trade deficit widens as exports fall most since 2012

"Today’s deficit moves the shortfall back towards the record $3.56-billion deficit set in March. The cumulative year-to-date total of deficits at $17.4-billion is a record.

Today’s trade data, along with the September jobs figures due Oct. 9, are among the last major economic reports due before an Oct. 19 election that’s been fought in part over Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s economic management.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canada-trade-deficit-widens-as-exports-fal...

tobyshitzu · ‎10-06-2015

CPC leads by 8 http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/283811706/Mainstreet-October-National

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

"a random sample of 5,197 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on September 30- October 1st, 2015."

That is old news already.

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

On September 30 Nanos also had the Conservatives in the lead over the Liberals.

That was then. Look at the numbers today:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151005%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

tobyshitzu · ‎10-06-2015

nanso small sample size/rolling average likely not as accurate http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/new-mainstreet-poll-shows-huge.html

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

If you take the time to check the 2011 election polls (a few days before election date) and actual results of the election, you will find Nanos was the closest!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011

Patience. In less than fourteen days we will know!

pierrelebel · ‎10-06-2015

To provide the best estimate of current voting intentions, the Poll Tracker combines data from all major public opinion polls into a weighted average. According to the latest data (October 5):

Liberal: 32.5%

Conservatives: 32.3%

NDP: 25.0%

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

disisus · ‎10-07-2015

I noticed that even when the Liberals or NDP are higher in popular support the Conservatives would still win more seats? So how much higher in popular support does either the Liberals or NDP have to go to have equal number of seats to the Conservatives?

I know the Conservatives changed some of the electoral boundaries when they added the extra 30 seats so that based on 2011's election, 22 of those 30 would go to them.

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Unless each day can be looked back upon by an individual
as one in which he has had some fun, some joy, some
real satisfaction, that day is a loss.

pierrelebel · ‎10-07-2015

In 2006, La Presse (most influential newspaper in Quebec) endorsed Stephen Harper. He won.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2006

In 2015, La Presse (still the most influential newspaper in Quebec) endorses Justin Trudeau.

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/201510/06/01-4907240-pour-un-gouvernement-trudeau.php

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/la-presse-justin-trudeau-1.3260030

tobyshitzu · ‎10-07-2015

"

However, we have seen a clear and sustained Conservative lead and we are confident that this is not some statistical anomaly. We saw Conservative Party starting to rise on the 12th of September, moving into a clear lead on the 16th, and holding that lead for 20 consecutive days. It is unclear whether these numbers would produce a majority or not, but it is certainly within the realm of plausibility."

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stable-but-narrowing-conservative-lead-as-ndp-in-a-hol...