RICARMICs Self insurance cookie jar statistics to end of 2020

[ricarmic]

It is that time of year again!!!....

Main overall note: This was the COVID year with all kinds of expected shipping implications, and I ship most of my stuff (quantity wise) without tracking.  I was shut from March 20-April 20, and for 2 weeks in August ("holidays"), and I still sold more than 50% more on eBay this year than in 2019 and with a LOWER package loss rate than the year before. This says at least in my (stamp) world all the COVID related shipping fears I had were unfounded.

Overall Notes:

-I live in the stamp collectors world, so these results are all from postage stamp selling categories

-prior to 2018 I sold only on .COM. Since then new stuff is about equally divided between .COM and .CA depending on intended audience and shipping costs (low value stuff with high small packet shipping cost to USA are listed on .CA with punishing USA shipping costs, larger versions of the same lots are on the .COM to try to get them to buy the larger more cost effective to ship to them lots)

-I ship worldwide, and I have no blocks on buyers (but I do maintain a blocked buyer list)

-this includes items lost to "crime" as well. "Crime" is defined here as situations where I think or know people purposefully buy with bad echeques, or claiming false lost in transit.

-I sell a lot of stuff internationally, over 35% of my packages go outside North America

-the numbers below are specific to eBay sales. I experience losses both real and "crime" related via the other online venues I use so package loss rate is not only an ebay buyer issue.

It is also worth noting that for 2020 I continued to have 3 types of insurance:

1. Self insurance for the small stuff
2. Canada Post for the first $100 only when items are sent expedited, expresspost, or trackable
3. 3rd party insurer (Hugh Wood) for stuff over $200

(Note that I did not utilize 2 or 3 in 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017 or 2016)

2020 results

% of shipments = .003 = under 1/3 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 333 packages are lost this is lower/better than 2019

% of $ sales = .0033 = 1/3 of 1% this is lower/better than 2019 

17 items "lost" in 2020 Canada(5), USA(5), UK(2), Australia(1), Greece(1), Italy(1), NZ(1), Spain(1)

   1 lost to "crime" (buyer was selling stuff that "never arrived")

   10 lost and unrecovered (this fewer unrecovereds than 2019!)

   7 repaid

Things of note in 2020.

-COVID, one would expect much worse results, however the actual results were better/lower than usual loss rate with a much higher sales volume!!

-one lost package to Canada was to a many times repeat customer

-one lost package to Korea through US forwarding company that uses multiple IDs (so it counts as US above). I thought I had blocked them all but I missed this one, I did find and cancel due to "bad address" other attempts from the other IDs from the same forwarding company.

-all lost packages were not tracked

-even with COVID I mailed to a lot of scary countries this year like Malaysia, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries etc and no losses to them!

-the "premonition" loss signs at this point (due to the COVID/XMAS combo) do not look to be any worse than a normal year, I do not anticipate at this point the January losses for items shipped in Nov/Dec to be much, if any higher than normal.

2019 results

% of shipments = .0047 = under 1/2 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 212 packages are lost

% of $ sales = .0041 = under 1/2 of 1% this is much higher than last year but a more normal %

11 items "lost" in 2019 Czech(1), Hungary*(1), Romania(1), Russia(1), Sri Lanka (1), UK(2), Ukraine(1), USA(3)

   0 believed to be lost to "crime" (none that I felt strongly about)

   11 lost and unrecovered (this is the most unrecovereds, but some may bleed over to 2020)

   0 repaid

Things of note in 2019.

-this is more of a normal loss rate

-the lost package to Hungary was to a many times repeat customer before and after loss

-all lost packages were not tracked

-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and most of them are not on the loss list!

-in 2019 I raised the bar on tracking, I tracked fewer packages "close to the line" in 2019. So far, zero tracked losses, so this theoretically would have saved maybe half of the loss $ if I incorporated it but I did not because I didn't closely track the relevant savings.

-see comment under what I've begun listing on .CA that used to be on .COM

2018 results

% of shipments = .0018 = under 1/5 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 550 packages are lost

% of sales = .00044 = under 1/20 of 1% ie almost negligible percent loss rate $ wise

4 items "lost" in 2018 Canada(2), USA, USA forwarder to Paraguay

   1 believed to be lost to "crime" (Paraguay forwarded)

   4 lost and unrecovered

   0 repaid

Things of note in 2018.

-this is the lowest loss rate since I've been reviewing this way, previous record low was 8

-all lost packages were not tracked

-no items so far lost due to Canada Post strike

-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and so far only losses have been to Canada or US addresses

-only significant 2018 change was beginning to list material on .CA

2017 results

% of shipments = .0071 = under 3/4 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 140 packages are lost

(all lost packages were  not tracked)

% of sales = .0044 = under 1/2 of one percent loss rate $ wise

13 items "lost"*** in 2017 Australia,Canada(5),Colombia,Italy,Russia(2),USA(3*)

   3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Canada,Russia(2) based on spider senses)

   10 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 Found later** Canada, 2 arrived later & repaid Colombia, Italy

   3 repaid (Buyer found or advised delivery later and repaid: Canada, Colombia, Italy)

*2 of the USA losses were to USA forwarding companies (1 buyer from Paraguay, 1 buyer from China)

** on return from vacation, lot was lost in a pile of junk mail which was not dealt with and found for a few weeks

*** 1 lost lot to Canada and 1 to Italy were lost to long time, regular buyers who have continued to purchase regularly since AOK.

Things I did in 2017.

-nothing new it seems in 2017 different from 2016

2016 results

% of shipments = .004 = under one half of 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 250 packages are lost

% of sales = .0024 = about one quarter of 1 percent loss rate

   8 "lost" in 2016 USA(2),Canada,India,Oman,Russia,Australia,Bolivia

   1 believed to be lost to "crime" (based on spider senses)

   7 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 USA advised arrival later and repaid

   1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: USA)

   1 odd situation, other USA buyer convinced me to unblock them and they successfully purchased 3 more items

Things I did in 2016.

-I China & Brazil require trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers especially China increased over the year, they began buying batches of stuff to make the postage palatable.

-decided against adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking) so far, am also considering doing the same for others

-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries

-I did change my flat rate shipping to Standard Shipping (outside the US) to add a few more days to the est delivery date

 2015 results

% of shipments = .0097 = about 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 100 packages are lost

% of sales = .0090 = about 1 percent loss rate

   13 "lost" in 2015 Russia(5) Belarus, Canada, China, French Polynesia, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka

   3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Russia, ordered 3 separately close together)

   9 lost and unrecovered(so far)

   1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Canada)

Things I did in 2015.

-I changed China and Brazil to custom shipping requiring trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers dropped dramatically.

-am considering adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking), however had many sales, including one for $1500 which more than offsets the minor losses.

-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries

2014 results

 % of shipments = .0051 = 1/2 a % of packages are lost, so about  1 in 200 packages are lost

 % of sales = .0040 = .4% of sales ie less than 1/2 of one percent loss rate

     10 "lost" in 2014 USA(2) Nepal(1) China(2) Brazil(3) Germany(1) Russia (1)

       2 believed to be lost to "crime" (China)

       5 lost and unrecovered(so far) USA(2) Brazil (2) Russia

       3 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Nepal,Germany,Brazil)

2013 results one half of one percent of sales loss rate:

0.51% "insurance" loss rate (10 unrecovered losses USAx3,Argentina,Chinax3,France,Israel,North Korea)

   0.3% as a result of "crime" (6 shipments)

   0.21% as a result of items lost in the mail (4 shipments)

 (Note in 2013 2 packages “lost” and later arrived and Buyers repaid(Brazil, Russia), 1 package loss partially covered by Canada post, no losses covered by 3rd party insurer)

2012 results - under 1% of sales loss rate:

0.83% "insurance": loss rate (unrecovered loss 9 shipments Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chinax2,Indonesia,Russia,Turkey)

   0.78% as a result of "crime" (2 shipments)

   0.04% as a result of items lost in the mail (7 shipments)

A reminder that 2012 is the year that CP covered the small packets, I had a few recoveries this way.

I had a big crime loss within Canada (this was also spelled out in a different thread).

[marnotom!]

This is interesting reading, but it does lead me to wonder how your sales volumes varied from year to year.

I’m not expecting you to give out actual sales numbers, and you shouldn’t, but if there was some way to compare the number of sales you had from year to year, those loss percentages would likely make more sense.

[teenytrinkets]

I absolutely LOVE these stats - thanks for sharing!!!

I'm also curious about your SNADs (you know, the returns where sellers have to pay the shipping...) and transaction cancellations?

I had 3 SNADSs in 2020, one of which was a high value sale to the US that resulted in a return and significant $ loss. This has made me FAR more cautious about selling higher priced items outside of Canada.

I had 2 low value SNADs that I just had to refund (that's pretty common for my sales). I'm less fussed with these, because I know they can just file an INR if they're scammers.

I had 2 tracked packages go missing, but they were shipped with CP via ChitChats back in Feb and went mysteriously missing at the Mississauga DC (along with an entire skid of packages!) When Covid started. Thankfully ChitChats settled it all for me. I consider this a one-off.

I had ZERO domestic lettermail go missing! That's a first, I think. Some of it took AGES, but when I messaged my buyer to ask them to wait a bit longer, I always send a photo of their envelope to ease their minds. I think it helps instill patience.

The thing that irritated me the most from last year was the CANCELLATIONS!!! I switched to immediate payment to avoid the mounting non-paying bidders i was getting, but all this did was shift those to cancelations. I didn't have a problem with it until PayPal started making sellers pay the fees for canceled transactions. I really hope managed payments fixes this...

[ricarmic]

Hi! Probably my morning coffee has worn off already, but I'm not sure why knowing the year to year comparisons for either $$ volume or transaction volume would help?

Putting it another way, in 2020:

For every 333 packages I shipped I lost one.

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $3.30 worth of them

In 2019:

For every 212 packages I shipped, I lost one.

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $4.10 worth of them

Changing package volumes from year to year shouldn't matter to the % I wouldn't think, unless it is a small number. Mine will always be over 1,000 for the years above.

Changing  dynamics within the total $ value such as sales $ average value per package might, on the assumption if I sell fewer higher value packages a larger % are tracked. That I don't know, I do think over the years I'm selling more smaller items than I did in the good old days meaning that my trend is away from tracked items volume wise.

Anyway let me know if the above helps, or help me understand better how I can present it more clearly.

[ricarmic]

Hi @teenytrinkets !

That is an interesting question, I've never ever even looked at those so I checked it out!

Here are other "loss" type statistics:

1 chargeback, which the buyer later repaid me for both the item and the $20 fee (they accidentally used an expired card).

2 full returns, both picked reasons that were not SNADs so I did not have to pay return shipping

4 partial refunds, sometimes my fault, sometimes buyers not understanding descriptions fault

So so far I've not yet had a "real" I guess SNAD.

All forms of returns/refunds amounts to 0.0018% so for every 555 packages I ship I have one refund or return situation.

Here again, if you'd asked me how "bad" it was, I would have never thought it was this good, again it shows how much our brains emphasize the problems over the successes....

Edited oops, I forgot to speak to cancellations. I don't have a way to track those, but the number will be very low as well, likely not much different than this, maybe 1 in 300 or 400 sales.

Same will hold true for non-payers, my best guess would be 1 in 400 sales.

[ricarmic]

I realize a perhaps better year to year way to express this:

Putting it another way, in 2020:

For every 1,000 packages I shipped I lost 3.

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $3.30 worth of them

In 2019:

For every 1,000 packages I shipped, I lost 5 (4.7 actually).

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $4.10 worth of them

[teenytrinkets]

I think it really helps to see these stats to realize as sellers we're not losing much $ in the grand scheme of things.

[marnotom!]

---

@ricarmic wrote:

Hi! Probably my morning coffee has worn off already, but I'm not sure why knowing the year to year comparisons for either $$ volume or transaction volume would help?

Putting it another way, in 2020:

For every 333 packages I shipped I lost one.

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $3.30 worth of them

In 2019:

For every 212 packages I shipped, I lost one.

For every $1,000 of eBay sales, I have lost $4.10 worth of them

Changing package volumes from year to year shouldn't matter to the % I wouldn't think, unless it is a small number. Mine will always be over 1,000 for the years above.

Changing  dynamics within the total $ value such as sales $ average value per package might, on the assumption if I sell fewer higher value packages a larger % are tracked. That I don't know, I do think over the years I'm selling more smaller items than I did in the good old days meaning that my trend is away from tracked items volume wise.

Anyway let me know if the above helps, or help me understand better how I can present it more clearly.

---

I guess what I was thinking was that someone who had half the number of sales that you did in a year, but the same number of losses would be looking at twice the loss rate, so it would be interesting to see if the sales numbers and actual number of claims of loss would be that closely related.  In other words, one year may be "better" in terms of percentages, but what did the actual number of loss claims versus the overall number of purchases look like from year to year?  I guess I'm thinking that proportion isn't necessarily everything.  The mark-up on a new vehicle is somewhere around 8-9%, but the mark-up on greeting cards is 100-200%.  Yet you're not going to clear all that much selling one greeting card as opposed to one vehicle.

I'm probably not making this any clearer, and as I've said, the actual numbers are none of my business anyway.  😂 

[ricarmic]

Hi @marnotom! 

Mathematically in terms of lost package counts, the numbers do hold up:

For me:

======

Putting it another way, in 2020:

For every 1,000 packages shipped I lost 3.

For someone who sold half the number of items of me but had twice the loss rate:

=========================================================

Putting it another way, in 2020:

For every 1,000 packages shipped I lost 6.

The loss rate expressed this way is independent of the actual number of sales or sales volume.

The loss rate expressed as a $$ value isn't as independent because it depends on what was lost.

To expand upon your example, if I sold both greeting cards and cars, and l lost 10 items this year and all 10 were greeting cards, the relative $$ loss would be small. However if I lost 9 greeting cards and one car, the relative $$ loss would be very large comparatively.

Looking back at my annual loss rate expressed as a % of sales$:

Average loss in 2020 was $40

Average loss in 2019 was $28

So while I lost more items in 2019 I lost more $$$ in 2020 but still less $$$ relative to total $$$ received in 2020.

Not sure what this really tells me/us.

I've not had any really "large" losses for quite a few years, so there is probably reasonable comparability from year to year for me.

I think the main thing to take away from this is that compared to how I "feel" the loss rate is for me the "actual" loss rate is very small..... I have to say I was shocked at how few a refunds I give out, it really puts it in perspective because I "feel" that I'm having to do it all the time....

[zee-chan-jpn-books]

For me, I have zero INR in 2019 and 2020. Can't remember if my last INR was in 2018 or 2017. So I assumed everything I mailed arrived safely in 2019 and 2020.

Didn't really keep track of how much I sold... it's not very much, but it's enough to keep me on eBay. The monthly free 200 for both .ca and .com listings definitely helped keeping me here.