WOW the 10th anniversary of me producing these!!
Main overall note: In 2022 I shipped a higher percentage of NON tracked items, I'm usually running under 10% tracked now, folks were buying "smaller" stuff for the last half of the year.
Overall Notes:
-I live in the stamp collectors world, so these results are all from postage stamp selling categories
-prior to 2018 I sold only on .COM. Since then new stuff is about equally divided between .COM and .CA depending on intended audience and shipping costs (low value stuff with high small packet shipping cost to USA are listed on .CA with USA shipping costs, larger versions of the same lots are on the .COM to try to get them to buy the larger more cost effective to ship to them lots)
-NEW in 2022 I began blocking countries when the new Germany rules came in, I block 105 countries now. I do not have any other blocks, but I do maintain a blocked buyer list.
-this review includes items lost to "crime" as well. "Crime" is defined here as situations where I think or know people purposefully buy with bad intentions, or claiming false lost in transit.
-because of the blocked countries, I sell less stuff internationally now, just under 20% of my packages go outside North America
-the numbers below are specific to eBay sales. I experience losses both real and "crime" related via the other online venues I use so package loss rate is not only an ebay buyer issue.
It is also worth noting that for 2022 I continued to have 3 types of insurance:
- Self insurance for the small stuff
- Canada Post for the first $100 only when items are sent expedited, expresspost, or trackable
- 3rd party insurer (Hugh Wood) for stuff over $200
(Note that I did not utilize 2 or 3 in 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017 or 2016, wow for 7 years so far!!!)
2022 results
% of shipments lost = .004 = less than 1/2 of 1% of packages lost without repayment (.005% lost with repayment included), so about 1 in 250 packages are lost this is a bit worse than 2021
% of $ sales = .0078 = just over 3/4 of 1% this is just a bit higher than 2021*see notes below
10 items "lost" in 2022: India(2 1 forwarded to), Italy(2), USA(1), Canada (1), Uruguay (1), Germany(1), Australia(1), Mongolia (1 forwarded to)
1 Italy identified as lost to "crime"
2 repaid, Uruguay, and Italy (non-crime of course)
Canadian one was likely confused buyer, 3 of many items purchased, other items purchased with missing
ones were received? Didn't raise this expecting it would just cost me more, simply sadly blocked them.
India chose to take risk on sending one of the 2 missing as COGS was very low
Things of note in 2022.
-with the worst of COVID theoretically past, it is interesting that 2022 results were worse than the COVID years! Having said this some of this is due to the fact that the Italy(crime) and 2 India losses were relatively large compared to average $$ losses.
-all lost packages were not tracked
-my new blocked countries have removed 2 of the above, India, Germany
2021 results
% of shipments lost = .0033 = 1/3 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 300 packages are lost this is basically the same as 2020
% of $ sales = .004 = under 1/2 of 1% this is just a bit higher than 2020, so about 1 in 250 packages are lost
12 items "lost" in 2021 USA(4), Canada (1) UK(1), Croatia (1), Uruguay (1), Colombia (1), Mexico (1), Israel (1), Slovenia (1)
1 identified as lost to "crime"
12 lost and unrecovered so far
1 repaid (from loss in 2020 so I didn't count it)
Things of note in 2021.
-with COVID continuing, one would expect much worse results, however the actual results were better/lower than usual loss rates before COVID with a much higher sales volume during COVID!!
-one lost package to USA was through US forwarding company
-all lost packages were not tracked
-I mailed to a lot of scary countries this year like India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries etc and relatively speaking low losses to them!
2020 results
% of shipments = .003 = under 1/3 of 1% of packages lost without repayment, so about 1 in 333 packages are lost this is lower/better than 2019
% of $ sales = .0033 = 1/3 of 1% this is lower/better than 2019
17 items "lost" in 2020 Canada(5), USA(5), UK(2), Australia(1), Greece(1), Italy(1), NZ(1), Spain(1)
1 lost to "crime" (buyer was selling stuff that "never arrived")
10 lost and unrecovered (this fewer unrecovereds than 2019!)
7 repaid
Things of note in 2020.
-COVID, one would expect much worse results, however the actual results were better/lower than usual loss rate with a much higher sales volume!!
-one lost package to Canada was to a many times repeat customer
-one lost package to Korea through US forwarding company that uses multiple IDs (so it counts as US above). I thought I had blocked them all but I missed this one, I did find and cancel due to "bad address" other attempts from the other IDs from the same forwarding company.
-all lost packages were not tracked
-even with COVID I mailed to a lot of scary countries this year like Malaysia, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin American countries etc and no losses to them!
-the "premonition" loss signs at this point (due to the COVID/XMAS combo) do not look to be any worse than a normal year, I do not anticipate at this point the January losses for items shipped in Nov/Dec to be much, if any higher than normal.
2019 results
% of shipments = .0047 = under 1/2 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 212 packages are lost
% of $ sales = .0041 = under 1/2 of 1% this is much higher than last year but a more normal %
11 items "lost" in 2019 Czech(1), Hungary*(1), Romania(1), Russia(1), Sri Lanka (1), UK(2), Ukraine(1), USA(3)
0 believed to be lost to "crime" (none that I felt strongly about)
11 lost and unrecovered (this is the most unrecovereds, but some may bleed over to 2020)
0 repaid
Things of note in 2019.
-this is more of a normal loss rate
-the lost package to Hungary was to a many times repeat customer before and after loss
-all lost packages were not tracked
-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and most of them are not on the loss list!
-in 2019 I raised the bar on tracking, I tracked fewer packages "close to the line" in 2019. So far, zero tracked losses, so this theoretically would have saved maybe half of the loss $ if I incorporated it but I did not because I didn't closely track the relevant savings.
-see comment under what I've begun listing on .CA that used to be on .COM
2018 results
% of shipments = .0018 = under 1/5 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 550 packages are lost
% of sales = .00044 = under 1/20 of 1% ie almost negligible percent loss rate $ wise
4 items "lost" in 2018 Canada(2), USA, USA forwarder to Paraguay
1 believed to be lost to "crime" (Paraguay forwarded)
4 lost and unrecovered
0 repaid
Things of note in 2018.
-this is the lowest loss rate since I've been reviewing this way, previous record low was 8
-all lost packages were not tracked
-no items so far lost due to Canada Post strike
-I mailed to a lot of "scary" countries this year and so far only losses have been to Canada or US addresses
-only significant 2018 change was beginning to list material on .CA
2017 results
% of shipments = .0071 = under 3/4 of 1% of packages lost, so about 1 in 140 packages are lost
(all lost packages were not tracked)
% of sales = .0044 = under 1/2 of one percent loss rate $ wise
13 items "lost"*** in 2017 Australia,Canada(5),Colombia,Italy,Russia(2),USA(3*)
3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Canada,Russia(2) based on spider senses)
10 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 Found later** Canada, 2 arrived later & repaid Colombia, Italy
3 repaid (Buyer found or advised delivery later and repaid: Canada, Colombia, Italy)
*2 of the USA losses were to USA forwarding companies (1 buyer from Paraguay, 1 buyer from China)
** on return from vacation, lot was lost in a pile of junk mail which was not dealt with and found for a few weeks
*** 1 lost lot to Canada and 1 to Italy were lost to long time, regular buyers who have continued to purchase regularly since AOK.
Things I did in 2017.
-nothing new it seems in 2017 different from 2016
2016 results
% of shipments = .004 = under one half of 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 250 packages are lost
% of sales = .0024 = about one quarter of 1 percent loss rate
8 "lost" in 2016 USA(2),Canada,India,Oman,Russia,Australia,Bolivia
1 believed to be lost to "crime" (based on spider senses)
7 lost and unrecovered(so far). 1 USA advised arrival later and repaid
1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: USA)
1 odd situation, other USA buyer convinced me to unblock them and they successfully purchased 3 more items
Things I did in 2016.
-I China & Brazil require trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers especially China increased over the year, they began buying batches of stuff to make the postage palatable.
-decided against adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking) so far, am also considering doing the same for others
-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries
-I did change my flat rate shipping to Standard Shipping (outside the US) to add a few more days to the est delivery date
2015 results
% of shipments = .0097 = about 1% of packages are lost, so about 1 in 100 packages are lost
% of sales = .0090 = about 1 percent loss rate
13 "lost" in 2015 Russia(5) Belarus, Canada, China, French Polynesia, Kuwait, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka
3 believed to be lost to "crime" (Russia, ordered 3 separately close together)
9 lost and unrecovered(so far)
1 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Canada)
Things I did in 2015.
-I changed China and Brazil to custom shipping requiring trackable shipping, ie lowest shipping $17.50 regardless item size. Number of buyers dropped dramatically.
-am considering adding extra custom shipping costs to Russian buyers (not tracking), however had many sales, including one for $1500 which more than offsets the minor losses.
-I sell in US$ so the lower $C rate gives me more room to make packages trackable, which I’ve been doing more to new buyers and/or buyers in scary countries
2014 results
% of shipments = .0051 = 1/2 a % of packages are lost, so about 1 in 200 packages are lost
% of sales = .0040 = .4% of sales ie less than 1/2 of one percent loss rate
10 "lost" in 2014 USA(2) Nepal(1) China(2) Brazil(3) Germany(1) Russia (1)
2 believed to be lost to "crime" (China)
5 lost and unrecovered(so far) USA(2) Brazil (2) Russia
3 repaid (Buyer advised delivery later and repaid: Nepal,Germany,Brazil)
2013 results one half of one percent of sales loss rate:
0.51% "insurance" loss rate (10 unrecovered losses USAx3,Argentina,Chinax3,France,Israel,North Korea)
0.3% as a result of "crime" (6 shipments)
0.21% as a result of items lost in the mail (4 shipments)
(Note in 2013 2 packages “lost” and later arrived and Buyers repaid(Brazil, Russia), 1 package loss partially covered by Canada post, no losses covered by 3rd party insurer)
2012 results - under 1% of sales loss rate:
0.83% "insurance": loss rate (unrecovered loss 9 shipments Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chinax2,Indonesia,Russia,Turkey)
0.78% as a result of "crime" (2 shipments)
0.04% as a result of items lost in the mail (7 shipments)
A reminder that 2012 is the year that CP covered the small packets, I had a few recoveries this way.
I had a big crime loss within Canada (this was also spelled out in a different thread).
